JUMP TO:
- Why pace and defense matter in women’s college basketball betting
- How pace impacts scoring and totals
- The role of defense in women’s college basketball lines
- Key stats that help bettors predict totals
- Tips for finding value in women’s college basketball totals
Between Caitlin Clark's emergence in 2023 and 2024 and the continual rise of sports betting in America, women's college basketball has reached new levels of popularity. Hoops fans are not only watching the ladies more than ever — they're also betting on them.
Want to join the pack and start betting on women's college hoops?
Here's everything beginners need to know, including the factors that impact scoring and odds, key stats to learn and monitor and pointers on how to find value on the NCAA women's basketball market.
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Why pace and defense matter in women’s college basketball betting
Tempo and defensive structure directly influence scoring in women's college hoops, therefore they also factor into the odds, lines and projected totals. Bettors who familiarize themselves with different programs' styles of play, average pace and defensive strengths and weaknesses tend to be successful in the women's college basketball market.
Many sharp bettors prefer women's college hoops to men's college and even NBA basketball betting. It can be more predictive and therefore easier to project from game to game, although the spreads can get quite large with lopsided matchups. Statistical research and matchup data tends to translate well, which makes savvy bettors more prone to the market.
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How pace impacts scoring and totals
Pace is one of the key factors that impacts scoring and projected totals in women's college hoops, so it's imperative for bettors to monitor each team's recent and season-long pace numbers. The oddsmakers look into these advanced stats before setting lines, so you should be looking into them as well if you want to prosper.
Get to know and monitor possessions per game, tempo metrics and shot-clock usage. Start to understand the correlation between slower-paced, more intentional half-court offenses and the under. What trends do certain teams' pace and space numbers reveal betting-wise? Treat data analysis and researching advanced stats like it's your side-gig and the positive results will likely follow.
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The role of defense in women’s college basketball lines
Elite defensive programs and upper-echelon rebounding teams tend to find success at the collegiate level, especially on the women's side. Teams with great defensive ratings and rebounding rates usually suppress opposing scoring opportunities and thus drive tighter betting markets.
Always look at the big picture — a team's full-season numbers — as well as its recent form. Has a team started to tighten up on defense a lot more in the past few games? Has a certain program shown a recent ability to drastically slow down its opponents' pace and points per 100 possessions? Every little bit of information can help bettors find an edge.
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Key stats that help bettors predict totals
- Pace (POSS): This is the number of possessions a team averages per game. Teams that play fast and take more shots create more opportunities for scoring, leading to higher-scoring games.
- Points per possession (PPP): A team's offensive efficiency, indicated by how many points they score each time they have the ball. PPP provides a more accurate assessment of a team's offensive prowess than points per game (PPG), because it accounts for pace.
- Offensive rating (Off. Eff): The number of points a team scores per 100 possessions. Like PPP, it's more accurate than PPG because it factors in the team's pace. A high-scoring team with a high pace may not be as efficient as a lower-scoring team that uses fewer possessions.
- Defensive rating (Def. Eff): The counterpart to offensive rating, defensive rating measures the number of points a team allows per 100 possessions. It provides a truer picture of a D's effectiveness than points allowed per game, which can be inflated or deflated by a team's pace.
- Effective field goal percentage (eFG%): A refined version of field goal percentage, which gives extra weight to three-pointers. It's generally considered a superior measure of shooting accuracy. A high eFG% on both sides could be a strong indicator of value on the over.
- Turnover rate: The percentage of possessions in which a team turns the ball over. A high turnover rate can slow down a game and lead to fewer scoring opportunities, favoring the under.
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Tips for finding value in women’s college basketball totals
Here's a few pointers on how bettors can find value with women's college basketball totals, finding an edge by pinpointing and exploiting the sportsbooks' vulnerabilities.
- Identify mismatched tempos: Go beyond the box scores. Team pace and offensive/defensive efficiency paint a much more complete picture, and mismatched tempos can reveal value-betting opportunities.
- Know the advanced metrics: Look for teams with specific strengths and weaknesses in these core areas:
- Pace
- Effective field goal percentage (eFG%)
- Turnover rate
- Offensive/defensive rating
- Offensive rebounding rate
- Free throw rate
- Analyze head-to-head matchups: Look at how well teams have fared against each other historically and in recent meetings. Monitor how each team has played against similar opponents, too.
- Recognize home-court advantage: This can be a significant factor in college sports, especially in women's college basketball. Home-court can influence the pace and foul rate of a game.
- Monitor injuries and player availability: The absence or return of a key player can dramatically impact a team's offensive or defensive efficiency, potentially affecting the game total.
- Pinpoint betting line discrepancies: After forming your own projection for a game's total, compare it to the line set by sportsbooks. If there is a significant difference between your total and theirs, it can indicate a potential value bet.
- Shop around for the best number: Different sportsbooks may have slightly different total lines, so compare them to get the best odds for your bet by line-shopping.
MORE: What are the differences between betting exchanges and sportsbooks
Popular sportsbooks that may be available in your area
Even if sports betting is legal in your state, not all sportsbooks may be available to you. Here are some of the most popular options to look into: