Turn up the intensity on the Friday night NBA action with these Warriors vs. Nuggets odds, player props, and best bets for an exciting Western Conference matchup.
- The Golden State Warriors will be without their offensive centerpiece, Stephen Curry (illness), creating a massive scoring void and making them heavy +350 underdogs against a healthy Nuggets team.
- Denver holds decisive statistical advantages at home, leveraging a dominant 55.7% rebound rate and 56.6 points in the paint per game against a Warriors team that struggles in those areas on the road.
- The betting market has reacted strongly to the injuries and trends, pushing the spread six points in Denver's favor, a move supported by the Nuggets' perfect 4-0 record against the spread in their last four home games after a win.
A Western Conference rivalry takes center stage Friday night, but this showdown is defined by a colossal absence. The Golden State Warriors travel to the mountains as heavy underdogs, forced to contend with the powerhouse Denver Nuggets without their superstar Stephen Curry, who is sidelined with an illness. This leaves the visiting Warriors in a precarious position against a fully loaded Nuggets squad, led by the formidable Nikola Jokić, who is a force of nature on his home court.
This late-night matchup tips off Friday, November 7, with the game broadcast nationally on Amazon Prime Video from Ball Arena in Denver. While one franchise is fighting to stay afloat without its leader, the other looks to assert its dominance as a heavy favorite. This analysis will dissect the game from every betting angle, breaking down the odds, key statistical mismatches, betting trends, and public action to deliver our top prediction and best bets for this lopsided contest.
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Warriors vs Nuggets betting odds
The NBA betting markets have positioned the Denver Nuggets as significant home favorites in this matchup. The current lines reflect a strong expectation of a Nuggets victory, with a double-digit point spread that tells the story of Curry's absence.
| Bet Type | Golden State Warriors | Denver Nuggets |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +10.5 (-115) | -10.5 (-105) |
| Moneyline | +350 | -476 |
| Total Points | Over 228.5 (-110) | Under 228.5 (-110) |
Odds as of November 7 from MGM.
The odds clearly favor Denver, with a (-476) moneyline suggesting a high probability of a win. A bettor would need to wager $476 on the Nuggets just to win $100. Conversely, the Warriors are listed as (+350) underdogs, meaning a $100 bet on Golden State would return a $350 profit.
To illustrate the payout disparity, a successful $10 wager on the Warriors moneyline (+350) would yield a profit of $35. The same $10 bet on the heavily favored Nuggets (-476) would net a profit of just $2.10.
There has been significant line movement since the odds first opened. The point spread opened with the Nuggets favored by a much smaller margin at (-4.5) points. Heavy betting action on Denver has pushed the line a full six points to its current position of (-10.5). Similarly, the game total has seen a substantial drop, opening at 235.5 and falling to 228.5. This indicates that early money has leaned towards a lower-scoring affair than initially projected by oddsmakers.
Nuggets' home edge a betting trend vs. Warriors
Examining recent betting trends reveals a clear advantage for the Denver Nuggets, particularly when playing at home and favored to win. The Golden State Warriors, meanwhile, have struggled to cover the spread, especially on the road and as underdogs.
Denver Nuggets
- The Nuggets are a perfect 4-0 (100%) against the spread in their last 4 home games following a win.
- Denver is 3-1 (.750) in their last 4 games following a victory.
- The Under has hit in 4 of the last 5 games (80%) between the Nuggets and Warriors.
Golden State Warriors
- The Warriors have struggled significantly on the road, posting a 1-4 (.200) record against the spread this season.
- When positioned as an underdog, Golden State is just 1-3 (.250) against the spread in their last 4 games.
- Despite their struggles to cover, the Over has hit in 3 of the Warriors' last 4 games (.750) when they are the underdog.
Warriors-Nuggets: Best Bets & Player Props
All signs point to a dominant performance from the Denver Nuggets in this one. The absence of Stephen Curry is an insurmountable blow for the Golden State Warriors, removing the gravitational force of their offense and their primary source of scoring. With Jimmy Butler also questionable, the Warriors are facing a near-impossible task against a fully healthy Nuggets squad playing at Ball Arena, where they are notoriously difficult to beat.
The betting line has moved a full six points for a reason. While a double-digit spread is always significant, the circumstances here warrant it. The Nuggets aren't just winning at home; they are covering spreads with authority. The Nuggets are a perfect 4-0 against the spread in their last four home games following a win, while the Warriors have been a poor bet on the road, posting a 1-4 ATS record this season and going just 1-3 ATS as an underdog in their last four tries.
Given Golden State's offensive firepower is sitting on the injury report, they will struggle mightily to keep pace with Denver's 8th-ranked offense. The Nuggets' massive advantages in the paint (56.6 PPG) and on the glass (55.7% rebound rate at home) will be on full display against a shorthanded Warriors squad.
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The Pick: Denver Nuggets -10.5 (-105)
With the Warriors' offense severely handicapped, the under presents strong value. The total has already dropped from 235.5 to 228.5, but there appears to be room for it to fall further. Golden State's path to scoring runs through three-pointers, and Denver allows opponents to shoot just 32% from deep at home. The Under has hit in 4 of the last 5 games (80%) between the Nuggets and Warriors, combining the Warriors' offensive struggles with a strong historical trend.
For the best player prop, look no further than Nikola Jokić. He is a triple-double machine on his home floor, averaging 25.5 points, 12.0 rebounds, and 13.8 assists in Denver. The Warriors lack the size and defensive integrity—especially when shorthanded—to contain him. He will orchestrate the offense and clean the glass with ease.
Additional Picks:
- Total: Under 228.5 (-110)
- Best Prop: Nikola Jokić Over Points + Rebounds + Assists (-122 at Consensus)