The last UFC PPV card of the year on December 6 will see a rematch for bantamweight gold. Will the result be the same at UFC 323 when Merab Dvalishvili defends the UFC bantamweight title against Petr Yan?
Merab (21-4) is on a 14-fight win streak. He looks to defend the title for the fourth time in his fourth fight of 2025. A win could result in him winning Fighter of the Year.
A former champion, Yan (19-5), has won three straight since losing against Merab in 2023. The Russian has seven wins via knockout.
Could a rising star become the UFC flyweight champion? The co-main event will see Joshua Van challenging the champion, Alexandre Pantoja. Pantoja (30-5) has won eight straight and has eight wins via knockout and twelve via submission. Van (15-2) has won five straight.
The flyweight and bantamweight divisions will take over the main card. Former flyweight champion Brandon Moreno returns against Tatsuro Taira, while Henry Cejudo competes in his last fight against Payton Talbott.
Rounding out the main card will be a light heavyweight clash between Jan Blachowicz and Bogdan Guskov.
With the help of the FanDuel Sportsbook, AllSportsPeople makes predictions on the entire main card of UFC 323.
UFC 323 expert picks and main card predictions
Merab Dvalishvili (c) vs. Petr Yan 2 for the UFC bantamweight title
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Merab Dvalishvili is the -500 favorite, while Petr Yan is the +340 underdog.
Merab lands 4.33 significant strikes per minute. "The Machine" is just that on the floor, averaging 6.40 takedowns landed per 15 minutes, landing 20 against Cory Sandhagen. He broke the record for takedown attempts (49) against Yan in their last fight, landing eleven.
Yan has won three straight since the Merab fight, landing 301 significant strikes. He lands 5.12 per minute and averages 1.58 takedowns landed.
Has Yan improved his takedown defense (85%) since the last fight? Even against other opponents, they aren’t on the same level as Merab. Even if injuries may have affected Yan last time, it appears nothing can stop Merab, especially on the floor. Expect the same result here.
AllSportsPeople prediction: Merab via unanimous decision
Alexandre Pantoja (c) vs. Joshua Van for the UFC flyweight title
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Alexandre Pantoja is the -265 favorite, while Joshua Van is the +200 underdog.
Pantoja lands 4.36 significant strikes per minute, has a 50% strike accuracy mark, and averages 2.80 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. The champion landed 15 combined takedowns in his last three fights. In just a short time in the octagon, Van has landed 8.86 significant strikes and has a 56% accuracy mark.
The 24-year-old Van turned pro in 2021 and could win four straight in 2025. If Merab Dvalishvili doesn’t retain and Van wins, he could be Fighter of the Year. "The Fearless" one landed 204 significant strikes against Brandon Royval, giving him a tank with plenty of gas. Pantoja can move slowly, but when he strikes, his opponent often doesn’t stand a chance.
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Pantoja is a better grappler. He can also neutralize Van’s best attacks. If Van uses quick combinations to bully Pantoja early, he could steal some rounds. Van will have to avoid the takedown attempts, but even if Pantoja does land, will it be for long? AllSportsPeople believes a new champion will be crowned following a chess match.
AllSportsPeople prediction: Van via unanimous decision
Jan Blachowicz vs. Bogdan Guskov; Light Heavyweights
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Jan Blachowicz is the -140 favorite, while Bogdan Guskov is the +110 underdog.
Blachowicz lands 3.44 significant strikes per minute and averages 1.03 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. In his short time in the octagon, Guskov has landed 4.17 strikes. He has a 55% strike accuracy mark. He faces his toughest challenge to date in Blachowicz, a former champion.
Blachowicz hasn't won a fight since 2022, getting outstruck against the competition. Guskov has not made it past two rounds in the octagon. He will go straight for the knockout shot. However, to play it smart, he may be patient against the Polish fighter until he can find the definitive blow.
AllSportsPeople prediction: Guskov via KO (round one)
Brandon Moreno vs. Tatsuro Taira; Flyweights
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Tatsuro Taira is the -132 favorite, while Brandon Moreno is the +104 underdog.
Moreno lands 3.96 significant strikes per minute. The former champion has a 44% strike accuracy mark and averages 1.51 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. Taira lands 2.87 strikes, has a 60% mark, and averages 3.21 takedowns. He has landed twelve takedowns in his last three fights.
Moreno has found a way to stay relevant in a busy division. Taira, 25, has stood out but struggled against Brandon Royval. Has he adapted enough to perform well against another top-tier opponent?
Whoever wins the co-main event could face the winner of this fight. Moreno wants to hold gold again, while Taira wants to spice things up. Is Taira, a prospect, biting off more than he can chew? AllSportsPeople believes in his abilities. Don’t blink, this could be a fast fight with plenty of strikes thrown.
AllSportsPeople prediction: Taira via unanimous decision
Henry Cejudo vs. Payton Talbott; Bantamweights
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Payton Talbott is the -290 favorite, while Henry Cejudo is the +215 underdog.
Talbott lands 6.05 significant strikes per minute and has a 54% strike accuracy mark. Cejudo lands 3.82 significant strikes and has a 47% mark. The former is susceptible to the takedown, but averages 0.24 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. An Olympic wrestler, Cejudo, lands 1.84.
It's been a rough stretch for Cejudo, only landing one of seven takedowns against Merab Dvalishvili and getting stuffed against Song Yadong. It’s also Cejudo’s last fight, putting the 38-year-old in a unique situation. Talbott is just starting to grow, and this is a true test for the 27-year-old.
It’s been a long time since Cejudo’s glory days, as well as his initial retirement. Is his head in the game? Or can Talbott use patience, a solid ground game, and a six-inch reach advantage to end Cejudo’s career?