The College Football Playoff gets underway in Oxford with a compelling first-round matchup as the Tulane Green Wave travel to face the Ole Miss Rebels on December 20th. This rematch carries significant weight, as Tulane looks to flip the script from their earlier season loss to the Rebels while making their playoff debut as the No. 11 seed against No. 6 Ole Miss.
Tulane vs Ole Miss CFP Picks and Prediction
The stakes couldn't be higher for both programs. Tulane has emerged as the premier Group of 5 success story, riding a remarkable season under second-year head coach Jon Sumrall into their second playoff appearance. The Green Wave enter this contest having transformed their program from SEC exile to national contender, boasting an outstanding +8 turnover differential that has been key to their success.
Ole Miss, meanwhile, gets to host their first playoff game at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, looking to capitalize on home-field advantage and their explosive offense that averages 36.8 points per game. The Rebels' high-powered attack will face a Tulane defense that has generated 34.0 sacks this season and thrives on creating chaos. Quarterback Jake Retzlaff leads a Green Wave offense that has evolved significantly since these teams first met, setting up what should be a compelling rematch with national championship implications.
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Tulane vs. Ole Miss Betting Odds
- Moneyline: Ole Miss -962 | Tulane +621
- Spread: Ole Miss -17.5 (-107) | Tulane +17.5 (-113)
- Total: Over/Under 56.5 (Over -112 / Under -108)
Betting odds courtesy of consensus odds.
The Rebels enter as heavy home favorites with the moneyline set at -962, while Tulane sits as a substantial +621 underdog. The 17.5-point spread reflects oddsmakers' confidence in Ole Miss's offensive firepower, though the line has moved from the opening 16.5. The high total of 56.5 points suggests expectations for an offensive showcase between these two explosive units.
Game Information
- Date: Saturday, December 20th
- Kickoff: 3:30 PM EST
- Venue: Vaught-Hemingway Stadium — Oxford, MS
Statistical Breakdown: Offensive Firepower Meets Defensive Disruption
When examining these teams' statistical profiles, the contrasting strengths become immediately apparent. Ole Miss brings one of the nation's most potent offenses to the table, averaging 36.8 points and 498.1 total yards per game. The Rebels' balanced attack produces 188.5 rushing yards and 309.6 passing yards per contest, with impressive efficiency markers including a 46.0% third-down conversion rate and 86.2% red zone success.
Tulane counters with a respectable 28.9 points per game on 410.7 total yards, featuring 170.2 rushing yards and 240.5 passing yards per contest. Quarterback Jake Retzlaff has been productive, coming off a strong performance with three total touchdowns, while the ground game has provided consistent balance.
The key matchup lies in Tulane's disruptive defensive capabilities against Ole Miss's explosive offense. The Green Wave have excelled at creating havoc, recording 34.0 sacks while forcing 15 interceptions and recovering seven fumbles for their outstanding +8 turnover differential. This stands in stark contrast to the Rebels' -3 turnover margin, which has been their primary vulnerability.
Ole Miss generates fewer defensive takeaways with 25.0 sacks on the season, making ball security crucial for the Rebels. If they can protect possession, their significant yardage advantage should translate to points. However, Tulane's opportunistic defense has consistently capitalized on mistakes to create short fields and extra possessions.
Best Bet and Game Prediction
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While Ole Miss possesses undeniable offensive firepower, the 17.5-point spread presents significant value on Tulane in what should be a competitive playoff atmosphere. The Green Wave's path to covering lies in their exceptional ability to create turnovers and capitalize on short fields.
Tulane's +8 turnover differential represents their strongest weapon against the Rebels' -3 margin. The Green Wave's 34.0 sacks demonstrate their ability to pressure quarterbacks and force the mistakes that have plagued Ole Miss throughout the season. In a playoff environment where possessions become increasingly precious, Tulane's opportunistic defense should keep this game closer than the spread suggests.
Expect Ole Miss to secure the victory at home behind their explosive offense, but Tulane's disruptive capabilities and improved play since their first meeting will prevent a blowout.
Best Bet: Tulane +17.5 (-113)
Score Prediction: Ole Miss 38, Tulane 24