The wild-card rounds ends with a matchup between the Houston Texans and Pittsburgh Steelers, for the last Monday Night Football game of the season. Despite ending the season with a significantly better, 12-5 record to the Steelers 9-8, the Texans have to head on the road to Pittsburgh for this one due to the Steelers winning the AFC North and the Texans taking the AFC South. We will be looking at our favorite Texans vs. Steelers props for the game.
Texans vs. Steelers Props and Betting Bonuses
Place these Texans vs. Steelers props after signing up on several sportsbook apps. Use miltiple bonuses for these picks, such as a bet $5, win $300 bonus on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Nico Collins 80+ Receiving Yards (-111) DraftKings
The biggest mismatch for any individual player in this game, on both sides, is Nico Collins against the Steelers secondary. On the year, the Steelers allowed the fifth-most receiving yards per game to wide receivers, and the third-most adjusted fantasy-points to game to WRs as well. Unsurprisingly, they allowed some pretty big receiving yards performances this season:
- Zay Flowers: 138 receiving yards & 124 receiving yards in two games against Pittsburgh
- Ladd McConkey: 107 receiving yards
- Alec Pierce: 115 receiving yards
- Michael Pittman: 115 receiving yards
- Christian Watson: 85 receiving yards
- Tee Higgins: 96 receiving yards
- Ja'Marr Chase: 161 receiving yards
We could keep going, as there are five more receivers that hit this 80+ receiving yards number against Pittsburgh if we had kept going down the list. From a schematic standpoint, this also lines up pretty well for Collins. They play a single high safety 56% of the time, 7th-highest in the NFL, and Collins yards per route run jumps up from 2.44 to 3.16 when facing a single high safety. He could pop off for 100+ in this game, but we'll stick with 80.
Kenny Gainwell 6+ Receptions (+116) Caesars
Six receptions might seem crazy for a running back, but Kenneth Gainwell was fantastic to end the season for the Steelers. He hit this 6+ reception mark in five of his last eight games, averaging 6.4 targets per game in this stretch. That might seem like a low number for somebody we are asking to get six receptions, but keep in mind that running backs consistently have a high catch rate being so close to the line of scrimmage.
In these eight games, Gainwell had two games with low target numbers with 3 and 4, but he had seven or more in the other six games. As good as the Texans defense is, and they are very good, the one area in which they are not elite is stopping running backs out of the backfield. Seven of the last 12 RBs against them have hit their reception prop over, including Omarion Hampton recording eight receptions in the last meaningful game the Texans played in Week 17.
On the season, the Texans allowed the 9th-highest target share go to the backfield, and the 6th-highest to the slot position. Gainwell, meanwhile, runs 58% of his routes out of the backfield and another 23% in the slot, giving him the best coverage matchup of any member of the Steelers.
DK Metcalf Under 56.5 Receiving Yards (-114) FanDuel
DK Metcalf missed the previous two games for the Steelers due to a suspension, but we are fading him in his return in this matchup. Overall, Metcalf's first season with the Steelers did not go as planned, as he only went over this number in four of 15 games, including only one out of his last 10. In this stretch he had one fantastic performance against the Ravens with 148 yards, but was 60 yards or fewer in every other game out of his final 10 games of the season.
He only reached 50+ yards in three of those 10 games, so more often than not he was significantly below this 56.5 number that we are taking. This is just a tough matchup against the Texans, who had the second-best passing defensive DVOA in the entire NFL, and the sixth-best against No. 1 wide receivers.
Metcalf will primarily line up against Kamari Lassiter or Derek Stingley Jr, both of whom are highly rated cornerbacks for one of the best defenses in the NFL. Fading Metcalf is the way to go in this matchup.