Texans vs. Steelers predictions: AFC Wild Card early best bets, odds, picks against the spread, moneyline, total

Tim Heaney

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Texans vs. Steelers predictions: AFC Wild Card early best bets, odds, picks against the spread, moneyline, total image

Aaron Rodgers' potentially final NFL season continues for at least one more week in the NFL Wild Card Playoffs.

Rodgers' Pittsburgh Steelers, the fourth seed in the AFC, host the No. 5 Houston Texans on Monday Night Football.

The defensive personnel involved here -- especially the pass rushers and cornerbacks -- will lead many to believe this game will be a slog. However, the general public and trading teams underrating these offenses could play to a particular advantage.

What is the best play to capitalize on public doubts? Keep scrolling for NFL betting predictions and the best odds to wager for Patriots vs. Chargers.

Texans vs. Steelers best bet

Over 38.5 (-110) • FanDuel Sportsbook / theScore Bet

Keep reading for a full breakdown of this Steelers-Texans betting pick.

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Texans vs. Steelers betting odds

For this list, I'm using FanDuel Sportsbook odds for Patriots-Chargers, current as of Thursday at 11 a.m. ET.

I will not necessarily use these odds for finding the best bets on this NFC Wild Card game. (Learn why bettors should use multiple sportsbook apps.)

  • Moneyline: Texans (-166) • Steelers (+140)
  • Spread (ATS): Texans -3 (-108) • Steelers +3 (-112)
  • Total: Over 38.5 (-110) • Under 38.5 (-110)
  • Implied Point Totals Score: Texans 21.25, Steelers 18.25

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Texans vs. Steelers predictions and MNF betting angles

More importantly than analyzing betting trends, which are often deployed in betting punditry universally without context, bettors should consider what angles can affect the event action and follow a betting trail from that.

Here's how Steelers vs. Texans bettors should break this game down.

Pass rushers face polar-opposite pass-blocking units

The Texans' pass-rushing duo of Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. Has terrorized many an offensive line this year, but the Steelers boast the second-best pass-blocking grade at Pro Football Focus (74.7).

Though each team has allowed 31 sacks on the year (tied for the ninth-fewest), the Texans' offensive line boasts many more concerns and is rated as one of the worst pass-pro units.

Can CJ Stroud step up?

The third-year slinger missed three games due to a concussion and was on pace for a year closer to his disappointing 2024 than his exciting rookie campaign.

At times, he flashes the downfield brilliance with top wideout Nico Collins and finds matchup advantages with Jayden Higgins, Christian Kirk, Jaylin Noel and tight end Dalton Schultz. However, he may rely too much on Houston's elite defense each week and defaults to game management.

A defense of the Steelers' caliber may require the Texans to throw more with their season on the line, and that's hardly a confidence-building situation.

Steelers' pair of 1K+ running backs could be the difference

Woody Marks has been a breakthrough rookie for the Texans, but the Steelers' backfield has all but kept their season afloat, limiting what Rodgers needs to do to challenge defensive backfields.

Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell each tallied more than 1,000 scrimmage yards during the regular season and open up what Pittsburgh can do with the football. Expect both to be heavily involved.

🎫 MORE: Early NFL Wild Card lines to bet

Texans vs. Steelers bet on the Over/Under total

Over 38.5 (-110) • FanDuel Sportsbook / theScore Bet / BetMGM

Grabbing this below 40 feels proper; the defenses won't let either team top 30 points, but this starting number underrated the upside of each offense. 

If the number dips below this already subterranean Over/Under, throw a minimum-unit bet down to go Over.

Texans vs. Steelers moneyline bet to win

Steelers (+145) • BetMGM Sportsbook

I'm going to side with the more wide-ranging talent and call for the upset. Houston's offense will not do enough to make up for the surprising amount Rodgers and co. Will produce.

Texans vs. Steelers spread bet (ATS)

Steelers +3 (-110) • BetMGM

If I'm backing the outright win, I'll go ahead and place a ticket on the most favorable juice on this field-goal spread, though it shouldn't be your priority.

Texans vs. Steelers betting trends data

Again, these should not be considered gospel but can help inform betting decisions on the fringes.

  • ATS record 2025: Texans 9-8 • Patriots 9-8
  • Over/Under record 2025: Texans 6-10-1 • Steelers 9-7-1

📋 MORE: How sportsbooks set betting lines

Best sportsbook apps for Texans vs. Steelers bets that may be available in your area

Even if sports betting is legal in your state, not all sportsbooks may be available to you. Here are some of the most popular options to look into: 

🆓 MORE: How to use bonus bets when signing up for a sportsbook

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