The Houston Texans head to Inglewood for a crucial Week 17 showdown against the Los Angeles Chargers at SoFi Stadium, carrying the weight of playoff positioning and revenge. This isn't just any late-season matchup – it's a rematch of last year's Wild Card game where the Texans delivered a decisive beatdown to the Chargers, ending Los Angeles' playoff dreams in painful fashion.
Texans vs Chargers Betting Preview
Both teams enter this contest with nearly identical offensive production, as the Chargers average 23.0 points per game compared to Houston's 22.9. The real story lies in the contrasting strengths: Los Angeles boasts exceptional third-down efficiency at 47.2%, while the Texans counter with an opportunistic defense that has created a league-best +13 turnover differential.
The trench warfare will be fascinating to watch, with both defensive units having recorded exactly 41.0 sacks this season. Star defenders like Khalil Mack and Derwin James Jr. Anchor the Chargers' defense, while Danielle Hunter leads Houston's pass rush. On offense, veterans Keenan Allen and Nick Chubb will be key focal points in what projects as a grinding, physical affair.
Sign up with the BetMGM bonus code to wager on Texans vs Chargers and win $150 in bonus bets or claim a $1,500 First Bet Offer, depending on your state.
Texans vs Chargers Betting Odds
Date: Saturday, December 27, 2025
Kickoff: 4:30 PM EST / 1:30 PM PST
Venue: SoFi Stadium — Inglewood, CA
The betting lines reflect just how evenly matched oddsmakers view this contest, with the Chargers installed as slight home favorites in what projects to be a one-score game.
• Moneyline: Chargers -130, Texans +110
• Spread: Chargers -2 (-110), Texans +2 (-110)
• Total: Over/Under 39.5 (O -110 / U -110)
Betting odds courtesy of MGM
The -2 point spread highlights the razor-thin margin separating these conference opponents. The modest 39.5 total suggests oddsmakers anticipate a tough, defense-first battle rather than an offensive explosion. Bettors face a classic toss-up: trust the Chargers' home-field advantage or take the points with a Texans team that excels at creating game-changing turnovers.
Texans vs Chargers: How the Teams Match Up
These teams are remarkably similar on paper, starting with their nearly identical scoring averages. The Chargers gain a slight edge in total yardage at 345.5 yards per game compared to Houston's 323.9, but the real disparity emerges in crucial situations.
Los Angeles operates with exceptional efficiency, converting 47.2% of their third downs and scoring touchdowns on 50.0% of their red zone trips. The Texans struggle in these pressure moments, converting just 38.2% on third down and 45.1% in the red zone – critical weaknesses that could prove costly.
However, Houston possesses the great equalizer: an elite ball-hawking defense that has manufactured an incredible +13 turnover differential compared to the Chargers' modest +2 mark. This creates the game's central tension – can the Texans' opportunistic defense force mistakes from Justin Herbert and a Chargers offense that has been clicking lately?
The pass rush battle will be absolutely crucial, with both teams recording identical 41.0 sacks this season. The Chargers are coming off a dominant 34-point performance against Dallas, while the Texans secured a gritty 23-21 victory, proving they can win ugly when necessary. Expect a field-position battle where one turnover could swing the entire outcome.
Texans vs Chargers: Game Prediction and Best Picks
This matchup screams defensive struggle from start to finish. The Chargers possess the more efficient offense, especially on third down where they convert at a stellar 47.2% rate, and they benefit from playing at home. However, the Texans bring the ultimate wild card: a defense that creates chaos and has amassed 17 interceptions this season.
Justin Herbert acknowledged the sting of last year's playoff loss to Houston, emphasizing lessons learned and forward momentum. But facing a defense with a +13 turnover differential in a tight game means constant pressure to avoid mistakes. Meanwhile, Khalil Mack has discussed how that playoff defeat influenced their early preparation, creating added motivation for the Chargers' defense.
The low total of 39.5 perfectly captures this game's essence. Both pass rushes are elite with 41.0 sacks each, and the Texans' offense has been inconsistent in crucial situations, converting only 45.1% of their red zone trips into touchdowns. Houston's defense specializes in ending drives prematurely with their turnover creation.
Sign up with the DraftKings promo code to bet $5 on Texans vs Chargers and get $200 in bonus bets (if you win).
Pick: Under 39.5 (-110)
In a battle between two teams with identical sack totals and Houston's turnover-forcing defense, points will be at a premium. The Texans' ability to create short fields through turnovers might be their best path to victory, but it also means fewer sustained scoring drives overall.
Top Player Prop: Justin Herbert Over 0.5 Interceptions (-118)
This aligns perfectly with the game's central narrative. Herbert faces a defense that has collected 17 interceptions while generating constant pressure with their 41.0 sacks. The Texans live off creating turnovers, and in a tight, playoff-implications game, that pressure is bound to force at least one mistake from the Chargers' quarterback.