The Tennessee Volunteers and Florida Gators are set to renew one of college football's most heated rivalries when they meet Saturday night at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. This SEC showdown carries extra weight as it marks the final meeting in the traditional format between these longtime rivals, with conference realignment changing future scheduling.
Tennessee vs Florida Betting Picks and Predictions
The No. 20 Volunteers enter this rivalry game riding momentum from an explosive offensive performance in their last outing, where they poured on 56 points and racked up 504 total yards. Josh Heupel's squad sits comfortably in the SEC standings and looks to close out the regular season on a high note. Meanwhile, the Gators are navigating uncertainty around their coaching situation. Florida needs this home win to provide a spark for a program in transition.
The storyline that has Tennessee fans buzzing is their opportunity to finally break a two-decade drought in The Swamp - the Volunteers haven't won in Gainesville since 2003. With their high-powered offense clicking and Florida dealing with internal distractions, this could be the year the Vols flip the script in one of the SEC's most hostile environments.
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Tennessee vs Florida Betting Odds
- Moneyline: Tennessee -195 | Florida +161
- Spread: Tennessee -4 (-112) | Florida +4 (-108)
- Total: Over/Under 57.5 (Over -108 | Under -112)
Betting odds courtesy of consensus odds
The Volunteers opened as 3-point underdogs but have seen the line move to -4 as early money backs Tennessee's explosive offense. The Gators are positioned as home underdogs despite playing in their notoriously difficult venue. The total of 57.5 points reflects expectations for a high-scoring affair, driven largely by Tennessee's ability to put up points in bunches.
Game Information:
- Date: Saturday, November 22, 2025
- Kickoff Time: 7:30 PM ET
- Venue: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium — Gainesville, FL
How Tennessee and Florida Stack Up Statistically
The numbers reveal why Tennessee enters as the favorite despite playing on the road. The Volunteers boast one of the nation's most explosive offenses, averaging 43.4 points and 495.0 total yards per game. Their balanced attack produces 318.3 passing yards and 176.7 rushing yards per contest, creating nightmares for opposing defenses.
Florida operates with a much more conservative approach, averaging just 20.6 points and 339.5 total yards per game. The Gators generate 217.1 passing yards and 122.4 rushing yards per contest, relying more on efficiency than explosion.
The key battleground will be Tennessee's ability to sustain drives against Florida's defense. The Volunteers convert an impressive 46.2% of their third downs, allowing them to control the clock and wear down opponents. Florida struggles in this area, converting only 34.1% of their third-down attempts.
Defensively, Tennessee has been more disruptive with 33 sacks and 18 turnovers forced this season compared to Florida's 21 sacks and 14 takeaways. This difference shows up in the turnover margin, where the Volunteers hold a +3 differential while the Gators sit at -3.
The momentum factor also heavily favors Tennessee, coming off their 56-point explosion compared to Florida's modest 20-point output in their last game.
Tennessee vs Florida Pick and Prediction
The statistical evidence points strongly toward Tennessee covering the 4-point spread in this rivalry matchup. While playing in The Swamp presents challenges for any visiting team, the offensive firepower gap between these programs is simply too significant to ignore.
Tennessee's explosive attack averaging 43.4 points per game compared to Florida's 20.6 points per game tells the story of this matchup. The Volunteers' superior third-down conversion rate of 46.2% versus Florida's 34.1% gives them a decisive edge in controlling the game's tempo and wearing down the Gators' defense.
The turnover differential also heavily favors Tennessee (+3) over Florida (-3), suggesting the Volunteers are better positioned to create short fields and capitalize on mistakes. With their balanced offensive attack and ability to score in multiple ways, Tennessee should have enough firepower to overcome the hostile road environment and finally break their Gainesville drought.
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Best Bet: Tennessee -4