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As sports betting continues to rise in popularity across the majority of the United States, new bettors learn different types of bets every day. One of the most fun and profitable forms of betting, prop betting, has become as commonplace as moneylines and spreads.
Learning the art of prop betting can help bettors old and new boost their bankrolls considerably. Keep reading to learn some tips, research advice, and common mistakes that all bettors should know before they dive headfirst into props.
What are prop bets and why they matter
A prop bet, short for proposition bet, is a wager placed on a specific outcome within a game or event that is not directly tied to the final score.
Prop betting allows sports betting enthusiasts to engage with many different facets of a game, from individual player's performances (player props) to team performances (team props) and even unique, non-sporting events (novelty/exotic props).
The DNA connections between prop bets and fantasy sports, which rely on predicting statistical performances for players and teams, allow for a bridge from fantasy into sports betting.
Player props
Player props are wagers involving the performance of a specific athlete. They have become one of the most popular forms of prop betting, typically presented as an over/under bet or yes/no proposition on a specific statistical milestone.
Examples of player props include points, goals or yardage over/under bets, anytime touchdown bets, and questions like "Will a quarterback throw for over 2.5 touchdowns?" Or "Will a player record a triple-double?"
Team props
Team prop bets focus on a team's performance, stats or achievements during a game, rather than the performance of an individual player.
Examples include team points over/under props and yes/no propositions like "Which team will be the first to score 10 points?" And "Which team will record more touchdowns?"
Game props
Game props are bets on occurrences throughout the game that are not specific to an individual player or team.
Examples include "Will the game go into overtime?" And "Will any player foul out of the game?"
Novelty props (aka exotic props)
Novelty or exotic props are unusual bets on outcomes that don't necessarily involve the typical statistics of a sport. They are popular for major events like the Super Bowl.
Examples include the coin toss result (heads/tails), National Anthem length (over/under a certain amount of minutes and seconds), color of the Gatorade poured onto the winning coach, and Super Bowl Halftime Show props.
Stats that drive prop success
Many statistics drive prop success across the major sports in betting. If bettors expect to be successful, they should familiarize themselves with analyzing not just the basic stats but also advanced stats, data, metrics, and trends so they can always find an edge.
Let's break down the major stats worth getting to know across the core four sports in the United States:
- Universal metrics: stats and factors that apply across most sports when evaluating a prop bet; basic stats like points and assists
- Recent form and performance trends: examining a player's most recent production or their production over the past few games
- Split stats: home vs. Away, day/night, defensive stats versus a position, with rest advantage, etc.
- Matchup data: Analysis of how a player performs against a specific opponent
- Pace of play: The pace and style of play of the offense and its defense
- Game context: The projected winner/loser, the point spread, the game script bettors can reasonably expect
- Injury reports: Health has always and will continue to always have a massive effect on the outcome of games
Now, let's discuss some sport-specific advanced stats that can help you as a player prop bettor.
Football
- Snap share/Player usage: For offensive players, the percentage of total snaps played is crucial. A higher snap count generally leads to more opportunities, a major consideration when betting on the NFL.
- Target share: For receivers, a high target share (the percentage of a team's total targets directed at a specific player) indicates they are a primary focus of the passing game.
- Red zone/goal-line usage: For touchdown props, look at which players are most involved in the red zone and near the goal line, as this correlates with higher scoring potential.
- Offensive/defensive efficiency with EPA, DVOA: Two fine stats to use: EPA (Expected Points Added) calculates how much a player or team's on-average play improves their team's scoring potential. DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) shows how effective a defense is against specific aspects of the opponent's offense, which can help predict a player's success.
Basketball
- Player Efficiency Rating (PER): A metric that measures a player's overall per-minute performance, adjusting for pace.
- Pace: How fast or how slow a player's offense has been moving in games. Players like the Pacers' Tyrese Haliburton operate much quicker offenses and therefore rack up more counting stats like points, assists and three-pointers.
- Usage rate: Players' individual usage rates and other advanced stats like Player Efficiency Rating come into play, as well. The usage rate shows how often that player is involved in an offensive play as a shot-taker or shot-creator. It can display a player's expected stats as opposed to their actual stats, which helps books anticipate potential positive or negative regression.
- Offensive/Defensive rating: These stats indicate how efficiently a team scores and prevents points. Comparing these metrics can reveal matchup advantages.
- Rest days: If a player is questionable or day-to-day — or he's just an aging vet on a tanking team or a strong team that practices load management — his NBA player prop lines might be affected by rest. Know the stats and trends associated with each player's load management each season.
Baseball
- Pitcher vs. Batter splits: Stats that analyze how a specific pitcher performs against (a) a specific batter or (b) left-handed versus right-handed hitters. Similarly, batter vs. Pitcher stats show how a batter performs against specific pitchers or righties/southpaws. These splits can reveal exploitable edges, though they should be used as a small piece of the overall picture and with specific context in mind.
- Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+): An advanced stat that measures a player's total offensive value and compares it to the league average, adjusting for park effects.
- Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA): A stat that gives a truer picture of a hitter's overall offensive value by weighting different types of hits differently.
- Exit velocity and launch angle: Batted-ball data that helps bettors understand how hard batters have been hitting the ball, and which pitches and/or pitchers the batters have hit most effectively. Also known as Statcast metrics, these numbers explain how hard a batter is hitting the ball and at what trajectory.
Hockey
- Player time on ice (TOI): More playing time, especially on power-play units, provides a player with more opportunities to score goals, get assists, or take shots.
- Shots on goal (SOG): This is a very common prop category. Track a player's recent shots per game and compare it to their season average, along with the opponent's tendency to give up shots.
- Goalie saves: Evaluate the opposing goalie's save percentage and goals-against average, along with their recent performance, when betting on a shots prop.
- Corsi/Fenwick: Consider a team's overall ratings in Corsi, or shot attempt differential, or Fenwick, shot-attempt differential that doesn't include blocked shots. Backing players on teams with positive Corsi or Fenwick can lead to discovering helpful value bets.
Common mistakes to avoid in prop betting
All bettors make errors, but prop bettors -- especially inexperienced prop bettors -- should be particularly wary of making these common betting mistakes for prop markets.
Targeting big names over value
Casual bettors and beginners often go for the big-name players, who often yield higher projections, shorter odds and lower-value props overall. Always target value, not stars.
Failing to conduct the research
Don't solely rely on gut feelings or your basic knowledge of the sport. Winning prop bettors thoroughly research player statistics, team dynamics, injury reports, matchup data, and past/historic performances.
Overvaluing recent performances
Putting too much emphasis on a player or team's most recent games, or having too much confidence in their ability because of one hot game, can have a profoundly negative effect on one's betting bankroll. A single good or bad performance does not necessarily indicate a long-term trend, so consider a longer period of data.
Ignoring external factors
Seemingly small details can have significant impacts on prop bets. Factors like weather conditions, injuries, suspensions or coaching changes should be part of your analysis.
Not practicing sound bankroll management
If you're not managing your money effectively, win or lose, you're asking for trouble. Bankroll management strategies help you establish a plan for how much money you can afford to risk, how much you should be spending per bet, and how to have impulse control.
Chasing losses
Prop bettors often find themselves chasing losses, trying to make up for a tough loss with another quick bet. Make sure you're following a research-based process and sticking to an efficient and consistent process so you don't spin out of control.
Not shopping for the best lines
Like with any kind of betting, prop bettors should always target the best lines. That means line-shopping across all the major sportsbooks available and licensed in the area.
Read more about why bettors should use multiple sportsbook apps.