JUMP TO:
- What are pitcher strikeout props?
- Key stats that drive strikeout props
- Context that affects strikeout totals
- How to find value on strikeout lines
- Common mistakes bettors make
Many aspects of MLB betting have become popular since the majority of states started legalizing sports betting. One of the most popular — and most profitable — has been strikeout props.
What constitutes a strikeout prop? How are the lines set? And what steps should beginners take in order to become profitable strikeout prop bettors?
AllSportsPeople answers all these questions and more below.
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What are pitcher strikeout props?
A prop bet, short for proposition bet, is a wager on a specific outcome within a game that does not necessarily relate to the final score. Props typically involve bettors placing money on individual player performance, team statistics or other in-game events.
Pitcher strikeout props are prop bets involving how many strikeouts specific pitchers will record in a particular game. Sportsbooks typically set the lines in over/under form, and bettors can bet on whether the pitcher in question will record more or less than that projected amount.
Here's an example: Gerrit Cole is the probable pitcher against the Red Sox. He's projected by the sportsbooks at 7.5 strikeouts, with the over carrying -120 odds and the under at -110. If you think Cole will record eight or more strikeouts, you would bet the over. If you don't think he will surpass seven, you would bet the under.
The -120 and -110 lines reveal the vig, the main way sportsbooks make money off player props. For every $100 you bet on the over of Cole's 7.5-strikeout prop, the books would collect $20. For every $100 you bet on his under, they would collect $10.
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Key stats that drive strikeout props
It's important for bettors to do their research before making player prop bets. That's especially true with strikeout props, as pitchers' performances can vary from game to game based on myriad factors and variables.
Here's some key stats to consider every time you contemplate betting a pitcher-related prop like strikeouts.
K/9 (Strikeouts per Nine Innings)
K/9 is the go-to stat for measuring strikeout ability. It paints a more vivid picture than a pitcher's total strikeouts on the season. It helps you understand how many Ks that pitcher averages, which is vital because of how often injuries occur and starts get scratched.
It also helps you understand how consistent the pitcher has been both in the short-term and long-term. You can look at the pitcher's season-long K/9 numbers as well as their K/9 numbers over the past three years or their entire career. You can also calculate their K/9 against specific teams and in certain ballparks, home vs. Away, etc.
Whiff Rate and Swinging Strike Percentage
Another couple of key stats to analyze when projecting strikeouts are whiff rate and swinging strike percentage. Just like batted-ball data and hard-hit rates indicate how well batters strike the ball, whiff rate and swinging-strike data indicate how well pitchers blow them away.
These advanced stats work both ways, too — you can see how often a pitcher draws whiffs and swinging strikes, and you can also see how often each one of his projected opponents whiff and what percentage of their strikes are swinging strikes.
Seasoned bettors and sharps always look at the advanced metrics and StatCast data before placing prop bets. If you want the whole picture — and want to be able to understand the value of each set of prop odds — you have to dive deeper than the traditional statistics.
CSW% (Called Strikes + Whiffs)
This stat reveals what percentage of a pitchers' total pitches are either called strikes or swing-and-misses. This can help bettors to understand the pitcher's command of the strike zone and how much the pitcher avoids contact. A strong CSW rate indicates a high-upside strikeout pitcher.
Opponent K% and Contact Rates
Bettors should always look at the pitcher's matchups, not just the pitcher and his recent form. That involves looking at every projected opposing hitter's K rate and contact rates before and after the starting lineup drops. Don't just assume who's starting, or make bets just because a pitcher has been hot lately. There are two sides to every strikeout prop!
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Context that affects strikeout totals
In addition to advanced stats, bettors should also be considering the different factors and variables that could influence the strikeout total. Many of these facets of the game don't even include statistics.
Here's some important factors to consider before betting a K line.
Pitch count and innings expectations
Knowing the length of a pitcher's typical outing or upcoming start is crucial, because it tells you how volatile their over/under might be on both sides of the bet. You want to have a low-volatility path to a win, so if recent pitch counts and innings-pitched have been low, you might want to stay away.
Look at the pitcher's recent pitch counts and how many innings they have totaled over their last few outings. How many times have they made it through the top of the order each game? Does their manager tend to pull them in the fifth inning if trouble starts brewing?
Pay attention to coach speak and injury reports, too. If a manager mentions a pitch count or pitch limit, take notes. If a pitcher shows up on the injury report, red-flag that pitcher. Always cover your butt when considering player prop bets.
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Handedness and lineup matchups
This may seem obvious, but bettors should always know:
- whether the pitcher is right-handed or left-handed
- how well the pitcher fares against righties and lefties
- which batters the pitcher will likely face in his upcoming game
Pitcher vs. Right- and left-handed hitter is a simple split you need to familiarize yourself with if you expect to have success.
Batter vs. Pitcher splits are also available so you can explore historical data and understand past success rates. Do whatever you can to find an edge, just like how pitchers study batters' swing tendencies.
Umpires, ballparks and weather
Other factors that can be crucial in pitcher strikeout betting include:
- Umpires: who's the home-plate ump? How do they call fastballs and breaking balls? Are they traditionally more hitter-friendly or pitcher-friendly with their strike zone?
- Ballparks: Is it a pitcher-friendly ballpark or a hitter-friendly park? How has the pitcher fared in that park in the past?
- Weather: Is precipitation expected? What are the forecasted temperatures? What about wind gusts?
These variables get overlooked by casuals, but they're well-known each and every time by sharp bettors.
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How to find value on strikeout lines
Look for trends through recent games, split stats and past historical matchups, and then shop the lines to see if any of the sportsbooks' projections seem overly low or high.
Analyze the pitcher's and opposing team's strikeout tendencies, take the game conditions into consideration, and know the situational factors that might come into play.
You can never do too much research when it comes to betting pitcher strikeout props. Do your due diligence and enjoy the fruits that your hard work bares.
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Common mistakes bettors make
We've talked about what you should do as a strikeout prop bettor. Now, let's talk about what you should avoid. Here are some common mistakes new bettors tend to make when prop betting.
Not conducting the research
As we have reiterated many times, do the research. Figure out where a line should be set, then determine whether there's value. Focus on past data, recent form, head-to-head matchup history, and other factors. Don't go into pitcher prop betting blind.
Placing emotional wagers
Don't bet on your favorite teams or players unless you've targeted strong value. Never rely on gut feelings — this should be a scientific process where data and analysis rule all. Bet with your head, not with your heart.
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Bankroll management failures
Stay organized and disciplined. Don't bet too much in a certain timeframe or on a specific bet. Keep prop bets at 1-5 percent of your bankroll.
Overreacting to recent performances
Placing too much emphasis on a player's recent "hot streak" or slump can be costly. Recent trends can mislead you in baseball, as positive and negative regression will always happen in sports. Don't bet too heavy on a recent development — momentum doesn't last forever.
Not line shopping
Betting odds can vary between different sportsbooks. Not comparing the odds to find the best possible value means you are leaving money on the table over time. Pay attention to which sites/apps have the best odds and the lowest vigs.
Parlaying props
Don't parlay three or more props together. If you're trying to get rich quick, your bankroll will go for broke. Regularly playing multiple props in a parlay invites volatility and ensures low short-term and long-term success rates. Don't play into the sportsbooks' hands!
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Popular sportsbooks that may be available in your area
Even if sports betting is legal in your state, not all sportsbooks may be available to you. Here are some of the most popular options to look into: