The New England Patriots head to Baltimore for a pivotal AFC clash that could reshape playoff positioning in both conferences. Mike Vrabel's Patriots bring a rejuvenated offense averaging 26.9 points per game, led by dynamic playmakers like wide receiver Stefon Diggs who will test a Ravens defense looking to bounce back from recent struggles.
Patriots vs Ravens Betting Picks for Sunday Night
For the Baltimore Ravens, this primetime matchup represents a crucial opportunity to solidify their playoff standing. Head coach John Harbaugh will unleash the explosive duo of quarterback Lamar Jackson and running back Derrick Henry, though Baltimore's red zone execution remains a concern after converting just 44.0% of their opportunities inside the 20.
With both teams carrying playoff implications and contrasting offensive philosophies, this AFC battle promises to deliver compelling storylines and tactical chess matches that will determine who gains the upper hand in a competitive conference race.
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Patriots vs Ravens Betting Information
This high-stakes AFC matchup kicks off Sunday, December 21st at 8:20 PM EST at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore. The primetime contest will showcase two teams with different paths to success in what should be ideal December weather conditions for an outdoor game.
• Moneyline: NE +125 | BAL -149
• Spread: NE +3 (-115) | BAL -3 (-105)
• Total: Over/Under 48 (O -110 / U -110)
Betting odds courtesy of MGM
The Ravens enter as home favorites with a -149 moneyline price, while the Patriots are positioned as +125 underdogs getting three points on the spread. The total is set at 48 points, suggesting oddsmakers expect a moderately paced affair between these AFC contenders. That three-point spread indicates Vegas sees this as essentially a pick-em game on a neutral field.
Patriots vs Ravens: Offensive Efficiency Meets Ground Attack
The statistical matchup reveals two teams with distinctly different approaches to moving the football. New England's high-powered offense puts up 26.9 points per game behind 364.2 total yards, with Drake Maye directing a balanced attack that generates 241.8 passing yards and 122.4 rushing yards per contest. The Patriots' efficiency shines in crucial situations, converting 43.1% of third downs and 52.0% of red zone opportunities.
Baltimore counters with a more methodical approach built around their punishing ground game that churns out 146.2 yards per contest. However, the Ravens average just 23.8 points and 324.6 total yards, creating a fascinating contrast between volume and efficiency. The most glaring disparity appears in red zone execution, where Baltimore converts only 44.0% of their chances into touchdowns compared to New England's more clinical 52.0% rate.
Defensively, the Patriots have generated more consistent pass rush with 29.0 sacks compared to Baltimore's 22.0, though the Ravens hold a slight edge in takeaways (15-13). Both teams have struggled with ball security, posting negative turnover margins that could prove decisive in a tight contest. Jackson is coming off a dominant two-touchdown performance in a shutout victory, while contributors Drake Maye and TreVeyon Henderson combined for four touchdowns in the Patriots' most recent loss.
Patriots vs Ravens Prediction: Take the Points with New England
This matchup presents a classic case of execution versus opportunity, and the numbers favor the more efficient Patriots despite playing on the road. Baltimore's red zone struggles represent a fundamental flaw that could prove costly against a Patriots team that capitalizes on scoring chances.
While the Ravens can control the clock with Jackson and Henry grinding out yards on the ground, their inability to finish drives with touchdowns creates value for the underdog. New England's superior red zone conversion rate (52.0% vs 44.0%) and third-down efficiency (43.1%) suggest they'll make the most of their possessions in what projects as a close, low-scoring affair.
Best Bet: Patriots +3 (-115)
The three-point spread feels generous given New England's offensive efficiency advantages. Baltimore may dominate possession, but if they're settling for field goals while the Patriots punch in touchdowns, the visitors provide excellent value getting points at home.
Best Player Prop: Hunter Henry Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+217)
This prop directly exploits the game's key statistical mismatch. With New England converting over half their red zone trips into scores and tight ends being natural targets near the goal line, Henry offers strong value at plus odds. Drake Maye has developed solid chemistry with his veteran tight end in scoring situations.
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Patriots vs Ravens Injury Report: Key Players Questionable for Sunday
Both teams face significant health concerns heading into this Week 16 showdown, with a combined 15 players appearing on initial injury reports that could impact the game's outcome.
New England Patriots
• DT Christian Barmore: Limited (NIR-Other)
• CB Carlton Davis III: Did Not Participate (Hip)
• CB Marcus Jones: Did Not Participate (Knee)
• LB Robert Spillane: Did Not Participate (Ankle)
• LB Christian Elliss: Did Not Participate (Illness)
The Patriots' defensive depth will be tested with two starting cornerbacks and two linebackers missing practice time. Davis and Jones' absence could create opportunities for Baltimore's passing attack, while Spillane's ankle injury impacts their run defense against Henry and Jackson.
Baltimore Ravens
• QB Lamar Jackson: Did Not Participate (Illness)
• T Ronnie Stanley: Did Not Participate (Knee)
• CB Chidobe Awuzie: Did Not Participate (Foot)
• LB Teddye Buchanan: Did Not Participate (Knee)
• WR Rashod Bateman: Full Participation (Ankle)
Jackson's illness-related absence from practice headlines Baltimore's concerns, though quarterback issues are often day-to-day situations. Stanley's knee problem could affect pass protection, while Awuzie's foot injury impacts defensive secondary depth. The positive news is Bateman's full participation despite his ankle issue, giving Jackson a healthy receiving target.