Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning, this is not.
While the New England Patriots are once again led into an AFC Championship Game by one of the NFL MVP favorites, the Denver Broncos must replace their second-year quarterback with a journeyman backup.
Jarrett Stidham steps in for Broncos QB Bo Nix, whose season is now over after suffering a broken ankle.
Will the Patriots take advantage of this bad news and cakewalk to Super Bowl 60, or can Denver pull a "Trent Dilfer/2000 Ravens defense" remake?
Keep scrolling for NFL betting predictions and the best odds to wager for Sunday's 2025-26 AFC Championship Game between the Broncos and Patriots.
Broncos vs. Patriots best bet
Patriots -4.5 (-110) • DraftKings Sportsbook / FanDuel Sportsbook / Caesars Sportsbook
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Broncos vs. Patriots opening betting odds
For this list, I'm using DraftKings Sportsbook odds for the AFC Championship Game, current as of Sunday at 6:15 p.m. ET.
I will not necessarily use these odds for finding the best bets for deciding who will win the AFC. (Learn why bettors should use multiple sportsbook apps.)
- Moneyline: Patriots (-250) • Broncos (+205)
- Spread (ATS): Patriots -4.5 (-110) • Broncos +4.5 (-110)
- Total: Over 41.5 (-110) • Under 41.5 (-110)
- Implied Point Totals Score: Patriots 23, Broncos 18.5
🏆 MORE: Super Bowl 60 odds and best bets
Broncos vs. Patriots predictions and betting angles
More importantly than analyzing betting trends, which are often deployed in betting punditry universally without context, bettors should consider what angles can affect the event action and follow a betting trail from that.
Here's how AFC Conference Championship Game bettors should approach this contest.
Bo Nix out for season, Jarrett Stidham to start
Nix had started every Denver game since his 2024 debut, and the broken ankle he suffered near the end of the Broncos' victory over the Bills came at a horrible time.
Stidham, the ex-Patriots backup, will have his very own Revenge Game arc.
Though the veteran has appeared in just five games for Denver since his arrival last year, a kneel-down is his only recorded play this year.
His presence obviously limits the Broncos' downfield passing-game upside, though RJ Harvey likely will dictate most of the work anyway. Denver's running game and blocking could do just enough to keep them hanging around, even with Stidham under center.
🏅 MORE: See where Patriots and Broncos stars rank in Super Bowl 60 MVP odds.
Patriots vs. Broncos spread bet (ATS)
Patriots -4.5 (-110) • DraftKings Sportsbook / FanDuel Sportsbook
Oddly enough, this line has traveled back and forth by one point on FanDuel, but I don't want to wait to lock this low clearance in.
Broncos bettors should wait for the spread to creep up toward a touchdown's difference. I could see this finishing the weekend at Pats -6.5.
Patriots vs. Broncos bet on the Over/Under total
Over 41.5 (-105) • FanDuel Sportsbook
The Under will likely remain heavy chalk; New England's offense is humming, which prompts me to fade and take the slightly advantageous juice as a straight bet.
I reserve the right to counter this bet if Denver's weather forecast begins to make things interesting, but in a vacuum, these teams should clear this low number, even with Stidham taking snaps for Denver.
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Patriots vs. Broncos moneyline bet to win
Pass.
No matter how elite the Broncos' defense is, the Patriots will not present a +EV bet anytime soon with Stidham set to start for the Broncos.
Bettors should focus on spread or more specific alternative margin of victory props.
Patriots vs. Broncos betting trends data
Again, these should not be considered gospel but can help inform betting decisions on the fringes. Stats include postseason games.
Of course, Denver's trends can be thrown out now that Stidham has to replace Nix.
- ATS record 2025: Patriots 13-5-1 • Broncos 8-9-1
- Over/Under record 2025: Patriots 12-7 • Denver 8-10
📋 MORE: How sportsbooks set betting lines
Best sportsbook apps for AFC Championship Game bets that may be available in your area
Even if sports betting is legal in your state, not all sportsbooks may be available to you. Here are some of the most popular options to look into:
🆓 MORE: How to use bonus bets when signing up for a sportsbook