Tuesday night's showdown between the Denver Nuggets and Boston Celtics at TD Garden has taken on a completely different complexion with both superstars sidelined. The Celtics will be without Jayson Tatum due to an Achilles injury, while the Nuggets are missing their MVP center Nikola Jokić because of a knee issue. What was supposed to be a marquee matchup between conference powerhouses has transformed into a test of depth and coaching adjustments.
Nuggets vs Celtics Prediction
Boston enters this contest riding high after dismantling the Chicago Bulls 115-101, with Anfernee Simons exploding for 27 points in that victory. The Nuggets are coming off their own thriller, edging the Philadelphia 76ers 125-124 in a back-and-forth battle.
Now, with their franchise players watching from the sidelines, we'll see which supporting cast can step up when it matters most. Jaylen Brown will need to shoulder the offensive load for the Celtics, while Denver's hopes rest heavily on whether key players like Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon can even suit up.
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Nuggets vs. Celtics Betting Odds
Game Information:
- Date: January 7, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM EST
- Venue: TD Garden, Boston, MA
- TV: ESPN, NBCS-BOS, ALT, KTVD
Betting Lines:
- Moneyline: Celtics -385, Nuggets +300
- Spread: Celtics -9.5 (-105), Nuggets +9.5 (-115)
- Total: Over/Under 232.5 (Over -105, Under -115)
Betting odds courtesy of MGM
Despite both teams missing their best players, the Celtics are heavily favored at home. The -385 moneyline shows strong confidence in Boston's ability to protect TD Garden, while the 9.5-point spread suggests oddsmakers expect a comfortable victory. Denver enters as clear underdogs at +300, facing an uphill battle without their anchor.
Statistical Breakdown: Celtics Hold Key Advantages
The numbers reveal why Boston remains favored even without Tatum. The Celtics post an impressive +7.3 net rating compared to Denver's +6.0, but the real story lies in the details. While the Nuggets boast the league's most potent offense at 124.4 points per game on 50.8% shooting, they're vulnerable defensively, allowing 118.3 points per contest.
Boston's strength lies in their two-way balance. The Celtics score 117.8 points per game while surrendering just 110.5, thanks to a stingy defensive rating of 111.7. Their offense thrives on volume shooting, launching 43.3 three-pointers per game, but it's their rebounding that could prove decisive. Boston grabs 12.6 offensive boards per game, converting those extra possessions into 17.5 second-chance points.
Without Jokić and potentially other key players, Denver's frontcourt will struggle to match Boston's physicality on the glass. The Celtics' ability to generate extra possessions through offensive rebounding becomes even more valuable when facing a depleted opponent.
Injury Report: Denver's Depth Takes Major Hit
The injury situation heavily favors Boston, despite losing their leading scorer.
Boston Celtics Injuries:
- Jayson Tatum (F-G): Out (Achilles)
- Josh Minott (F): Out (Ankle)
Denver Nuggets Injuries:
- Nikola Jokić (C): Out (Knee)
- Jonas Valančiūnas (C): Out (Calf)
- Cameron Johnson (F): Out (Knee)
- Tamar Bates (G): Out (Foot)
- Jamal Murray (G): Questionable (Ankle)
- Aaron Gordon (F): Questionable (Hamstring)
- Christian Braun (G): Questionable (Ankle)
- Tim Hardaway Jr. (G-F): Questionable (Illness Management)
While losing Tatum is significant for Boston, Denver's injury report is catastrophic. Beyond Jokić, they're also missing frontcourt depth in Valančiūnas and Johnson. If Murray and Gordon can't play, the Nuggets would be without their three most important offensive weapons on the road.
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Our Fearless Forecast: Celtics Cover the Spread
The math here is simple - Denver's injury situation is too severe to overcome at TD Garden. Playing without Jokić is tough enough, but potentially missing Murray and Gordon as well creates an impossible scenario for the visitors.
Boston may be without Tatum, but they're at home with a deeper roster and superior defensive structure. Jaylen Brown and Simons have the firepower to exploit a weakened Denver defense, while the Celtics' rebounding advantage should create multiple second-chance opportunities against a thin Nuggets frontcourt.
Best Bet: Celtics -9.5 (-105)
The 9.5-point spread feels justified given Denver's personnel issues. Boston's defensive rating of 111.7 should contain whatever offense the Nuggets can muster, while their second-chance scoring ability (17.5 points per game) becomes even more valuable against depleted opposition.
Best Player Prop: Anfernee Simons Over 13.5 Points (-110)
With Tatum sidelined, someone needs to absorb his shot attempts and usage rate. Simons just dropped 27 points against Chicago and figures to be a primary beneficiary of increased offensive responsibility. The 13.5-point line seems low for a player who could see expanded minutes and touches against a defensively challenged Nuggets squad.