The Sunday slate features three games, the most we have on one individual day the entire playoffs, giving us plenty of options for our favorite NFL Wild Card props.
- Buffalo Bills vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, 1 p.m. ET
- San Francisco 49ers vs. Philadelphia Eagles, 4:30 p.m. ET
- Los Angeles Chargers vs. New England Patriots, 8:15 p.m. ET
NFL Wild Card Props
For this article, we will be providing our favorite NFL player prop picks for each game on Sunday. Check out bonuses on FanDuel, BetMGM and bet365 for these wagers.
Travis Etienne over 63.5 Rushing Yards (-113) FanDuel
While Travis Etienne has only gone over this number in eight of 17 games this year, he has actually had one of the harder schedules when he comes to run defenses. He has played:
Texans, 2x: 4th-fewest rushing yards to RBs
- Seahawks: 3rd-fewest
- Broncos: fewest
He went under in all four of those games. So, if you just take those games out, he went over this number in eight of 13 games, averaging 70.5 rushing yards per game.
He only played three games against teams in the bottom 10 in terms of rushing yards allowed to running backs, and he went over in two of those three games, averaging 82 rushing yards per game. The one game he went under was a weird game against the Jets where the Jaguars won by 28 points, and he had an astonishing 73 receiving yards, which was a season high by far. His next closest was 31.
Now, he gets a matchup against a horrible Bills run defense that allowed the 6th-most rushing yards to RBs on the season, and did not get any better as the season went on. Trust Etienne on Sunday.
A.J. Brown over 64.5 Receiving Yards (-118) at BetMGM
It feel scary backing any offensive player on the Eagles to do anything, but this is a number that A.J. Brown went over in eight of his last 13 games, averaging 74.5 receiving yards per game. He struggled immensely the first two games of the year, but ended the season on a really nice stretch, going over this number in five out of his last six games. The only game he went under was a game in which the Eagles won 31-0, and Hurts barely attempted any passes. He averaged 91 receiving yards per game in this six game stretch.
Now, he gets a matchup against a 49ers defense that really struggled down the stretch of the season due to injuries, and Brown should be able to take advantage of them. On the year, the 49ers allowed the 11th-most receiving yards per game to WRs, which is not horrible but below-average.
That said, the last three weeks of the regular season they allowed some big WR performances:
- Week 18: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, 84 receiving yards
- Week 17: Luther Burden III, 138 receiving yards
Week 17: All three of Josh Downs, Alec Pierce & Michael Pittman Jr went over their receiving prop over/under
Look for Brown to have a big game on Sunday.
Stefon Diggs 6+ Receptions (+155) bet365
This is on the riskier side, but it has a lot of value at the +155 price we are getting. The Patriots limited Stefon Diggs snap count in the regular season, not playing him the full complement of snaps as he came back from a torn ACL. The guess here is that is going to change in this game. He played 17 games this year, but only played 55% or higher in seven of those 17, 60% or higher in only three games, and 65% or higher only once. While he certainly will not jump up to 99% of the snaps or anything like that, he should at least play more now that we are in the playoffs.
If we look at the games in which he played 55% of the snaps, he recorded 6+ receptions in four out of those seven games, averaging 7.1 targets per game. In the three games he played 60% of the snaps, he recorded 6+ receptions twice. This is also a good matchup for Diggs over any other Pats WR, as he is more of the possession receiver that is not targeted as deep as any of their other WRs.
For context, his aDOT is 8.7, and every other WR is double-digits. The Chargers play two-high safety looks at the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL, which are also designed to limit deep passing, and Diggs targets per route run goes is 0.26 against two-high safety looks, which leads the team by a decent margin. Only one other player is above 0.20, which is Mack Hollins at 0.22.