Now that the regular season is over, the stakes are raised for playoff football. This year feels as wide open as any year has felt in a long time in the NFL, which means there is going to be heartbreak for seven teams that end up losing this weekend. The weekend gets started at 4:30 p.m. ET between the Rams and Panthers, and ends on Monday night. For this article, however, we will be giving our favorite NFL Wild Card picks for games on Saturday, January 10th.
NFL Wild Card Picks for Rams vs. Panthers
| FanDuel Odds | DraftKings Odds | BetMGM Odds | |
| Rams Moneyline | -650 | -575 | -625 |
| Panthers Moneyline | +460 | +425 | +450 |
| Rams Spread | -10.5 (-110) | -10.5 (-105) | -10.5 (-110) |
| Panthers Spread | +10.5 (-110) | +10.5 (-115) | +10.5 (-110) |
| Total | o46.5 (-105); u46.5 (-115) | o45.5 (-115); u45.5 (-105) | o46 (-110); u46 (-110) |
It is funny to see the Los Angeles Rams be so heavily favored despite not only being the lower seed in the game, but also lost the head-to-head matchup between these two teams earlier this season. That said, it is pretty easy to understand why. The Rams finished 12-5 with a +172 point differential, while the Carolina Panthers finished 8-9 with a -69 point differential.
Pretty much every single advanced stat you can look at from DVOA to success rate and EPA/Play paint the Rams as one of, if not the, best teams in the NFL, while the Panthers are only in the playoffs due to a weak division.
That said, the Panthers did seem to perform much better at home (5-3 at home, 3-6 away), while the Rams were the opposite (7-1 at home, 5-4 away). So, while the Rams are heavily favored for a reason, it would not be a complete surprise to see the Panthers at least keep this game within single digits to cover the spread.
In terms of a player prop, our favorite play here is to back the Rams RB Kyren Williams to go over his rushing prop of 64.5, which is a number that Williams has gone over in 13 of 17 games this year. This is really just a volume thing for Williams, who should expect 15+ carries in this game in a decent matchup against a bad Panthers run defense.
On the year, the Panthers allowed the 4th-most rushing yards to running backs in the entire NFL, and Williams actually went over this number in that game mentioned earlier against these two teams just put 72 receiving yards in a weird game against the Panthers earlier this year in which the Rams actually lost. In a winning effort, he goes over once again, albeit in a game that the Panthers cover the spread
Official Bets:
- Panthers +10.5 (-110) BetMGM
- Kyren Wiliams over 64.5 Rushing Yards (-114) FanDuel
Packers vs. Bears Odds & Best Bet
| FanDuel Odds | DraftKings Odds | BetMGM Odds | |
| Packers Moneyline | -120 | -120 | -118 |
| Bears Moneyline | +102 | +100 | -102 |
| Packers Spread | -1.5 (-110) | -1.5 (-112) | -1 (-115) |
| Bears Spread | +1.5 (-110) | +1.5 (-108) | +1 (-105) |
| Total | o46.5 (-105); u46.5 (-115) | o45.5 (-115); u45.5 (-105) | o46 (-110); u46 (-110) |
The second game of the night also features the away, lower seeded team as the favorite, albeit a much, much lighter favorite in the Green Bay Packers over the Chicago Bears. File this next stat under interesting but probably meaningless, but the Packers last regular season win came against the Bears, while the Bears last regular season win came against... The Packers.
The Packers beat the Bears on December 7th, and then proceeded to end the season with four straight losses. One of those losses came to the Bears two weeks later, on December 20th, while the Bears then ended the regular season on a two-game losing streak. Neither of these teams heading into this game are playing their best football, especially a Packers team that was littered with injuries to end the season.Wp:paragraph
The biggest one, of course, is superstar defensive end Micah Parsons who is out for the year with a torn ACL, while they are at least getting back QB Jordan Love for this game, who missed the second half of the Packers loss to the Bears with a concussion. Despite losing Love for the majority of that game, the Packers were an onsides kick recovery away from winning that game, but could not recover the kick and lost in overtime.
So, for this game, we lean on the Packers to get the win, despite playing in Chicago and ending the season losing four straight games. They outplayed Chicago in both of their regular season meetings, including the game in Chicago that was played without Micah Parsons.
As for a player prop, we like Jayden Reed to record 4+ receptions. He has done this in three of four games since returning from injury, and is set up against a Bears defense that allows the 5th-fewest completions to the outside WR, but 21st guarding slot receivers. That is important, as Reed lines up primarily in the slot, 77% of the time.
NFL Wild Card Picks:
- Packers Moneyline (-118) BetMGM
- Jayden Reed 4+ Receptions (+122) DraftKings