There are three fantastic NFL Wild Card games on the Sunday slate, starting as early as 1 p.m. ET between the Bills and Jaguars, and ending at 8:15 p.m. ET between the Chargers and Patriots. The afternoon game is the 49ers vs. The Eagles at 4:30 p.m. ET. There has been some interesting spread movement on some of these games, which we will detail below for our favorite NFL Wild Card picks.
NFL Wild Card Picks for Sunday
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Bills vs. Jaguars Odds & Best Bets
| FanDuel Odds | DraftKings Odds | BetMGM Odds | |
| Bills Moneyline | -102 | -105 | -105 |
| Jaguars Moneyline | -116 | -115 | -115 |
| Bills Spread | +1.5 (-118) | +1.5 (-118) | +1 (-110) |
| Jaguars Spread | -1.5 (-104) | -1.5 (-102) | -1 (-110) |
| Total | o51.5 (-115); u51.5 (-105) | o51.5 (-110); u51.5 (-110) | o51.5 (-115); u51.5 (-105) |
This is one of those games where the line has moved over the course of the week, as it opened up with the Bills as 1.5-point favorites to where you see it now, with the Jaguars as favorites. It is one of those games where, on paper, the Jaguars are probably the better team, but the Bills are the playoff tested team with the MVP caliber quarterback. That said, Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence has been fantastic to end the season, playing at a very high level.
The Bills offense was a juggernaut throughout, with the biggest gap being the Jaguars defense. They ended the year with the third-best defense according to EPA/play, and the 6th-best in terms of success rate. The Bills, meanwhile, were 14th and 12th in both of those categories, respectively. The biggest issue with the Bills defense is their run defense, ending with the second-worst EPA/Rush in the entire NFL, and, by far, the worst of all teams in the playoffs.
If the Bills are going to win, they are going to need a superman effort out of Josh Allen, who is normally up for the task. The Bills ended the season with the third-best offense in the NFL per EPA/play, and the second-best success rate. Allen himself ended the season with the fourth-best EPA/play of all starting QBs.
In a playoff setting, we'll trust the Bills to pull off the minor upset, as this is probably the best chance they will ever have to reach the Super Bowl.
The Pick: Bills Moneyline (-102) FanDuel
Eagles vs. 49ers Odds and Best Bets
| FanDuel Odds | DraftKings Odds | BetMGM Odds | |
| 49ers Moneyline | +225 | +215 | +225 |
| Eagles Moneyline | -275 | -265 | -275 |
| 49ers Spread | +6 (-110) | +6 (-112) | +6 (-110) |
| Eagles Spread | -6 (-110) | -6 (-108) | -6 (-110) |
| Total | o44.5 (-105); u44.5 (-115) | o44.5 (-108); u44.5 (-112) | o44.5 (-105); u44.5 (-115) |
This is another game where we have seen extreme line movement, with the Eagles opening up at 3.5-point favorites and quickly moving up from there. The line almost immediately jumped up to 4.5, and has now creeped all the way up to -6 in the Eagles favor. It makes sense, as the Eagles defense ended the season on an absolute heater, while the last we saw of the 49ers offense was them putting up a lifeless, 3-point performance against Seattle with the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs on the line.
While the Seahawks defense is either the best or second-best by most metrics you look at, the Eagles defense got better as the season went on and are not far behind. It is easy to see Vic Fangio and company doing to the 49ers offense what we saw Seattle do, this same Eagles defense that led the Eagles to a Super Bowl run last year.
The biggest question mark, for both teams, is the other matchup: the Eagles offense vs. The 49ers defense. The Eagles offense felt like they were playing in mud the entire season, ending the season 16th in EPA/play and 22nd in success rate. For the most expensive offense in the NFL, that is simply not good enough.
So, while the Eagles get the victory here thanks to their tenacious defense, the guess here is that it is going to be a slog where the fans aren't exactly thrilled with a playoff victory, but they are at least moving on to the next round of the playoffs. Eagles in, 49ers cover. The under is also in play here
The Pick: 49ers +6 (-110) BetMGM
Chargers vs. Patriots Odds & Best Bets
| FanDuel Odds | DraftKings Odds | BetMGM Odds | |
| Chargers Moneyline | +164 | +160 | +165 |
| Patriots Moneyline | -196 | -192 | -200 |
| Chargers Spread | +3.5 (-110) | +3.5 (-112) | +3.5 (-110) |
| Patriots Spread | -3.5 (-110) | -3.5 (-108) | -3 (-110) |
| Total | o45.5 (-114); u45.5 (-106) | o45.5 (-115); u45.5 (-105) | o45.5 (-110); u45.5 (-110) |
The Patriots had, by far, the easiest schedule in the NFL when it comes to the quality of the QBs they faced, but they still deserve to be as favored as they are. Drake Maye is an MVP candidate, ending the season with the best EPA/play of all QBs in the NFL, with the second-best success rate. Only Brock Purdy was above him in terms of success rate, but Purdy played almost half the snaps due to injury.
The biggest mismatch in this game, however, is the Patriots defense vs. The Chargers offense, and more specifically the Chargers offensive line. They were dealt with an unfortunate number of injuries along the OL, and because of that finished with the worst run-blocking grade in the entire NFL according to PFF. Now, they are dealing with another ankle injury to RB Omarion Hampton.
This is another game where the under is in play, as the Chargers do have a good defense in their own right, that actually matches up well with the Patriots offense. Drake Maye was the best deep ball thrower in the NFL this year, but the Chargers play a style of defense designed to limit the big throws. They play two-high coverage at the second-highest rate in the NFL, keeping two safeties deep to limit explosive plays.
So, this has the makings of a low-scoring game where the Chargers offense is just not quite capable of doing enough to keep up.
The Pick: Patriots -3.5 (-108) DraftKings