TL;DR
- Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs face potential Week 12 upsets despite being favored.
- Eagles' offense struggles despite strong defense, raising concerns about sustainability.
- Cowboys' offense ranks high, and Eagles' defense may not consistently hold opponents low.
- Colts boast NFL's top offense and are capable of advancing the ball against Chiefs.
The two teams slated to compete in Super Bowl 59 are facing potential upsets in Week 12, specifically the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs. Despite an 8-2 record, the Eagles have secured only one victory by a margin greater than one touchdown, which occurred against the struggling Giants.
The Chiefs, surprisingly, stand at 5-5 for the season and would face slim playoff prospects following a Sunday defeat. This week, both teams are vulnerable to upsets despite being favored. We'll break down these NFL upset picks below and present the top sportsbook odds.
Top NFL Upset Selections for Week 12
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| NFL Upset Picks | Odds |
| Cowboys | +145 on DraftKings |
| Colts Moneyline | +154 on DraftKings |
Cowboys Win as Home Underdogs
Forecasting a Dallas Cowboys victory against the Eagles stems less from believing the Cowboys will surge in the latter half of the season, and more from a decline in the Eagles' performance. While the Eagles currently hold an 8-2 record, their play this season, particularly on offense, hasn't been particularly inspiring.
Javascript Ad Tag: 35For two weeks running, their defense has been outstanding, limiting both the Packers and Lions to a total of 16 points. However, the Eagles have only managed to score 26 points themselves, indicating they haven't been able to capitalize on their defensive success.
The Eagles' current offensive style is unsustainable and will likely lead to a downfall, reminiscent of their 2023 season's late-season slump. While the 2025 defense is a marked improvement over their 2023 unit, expecting them to consistently hold opponents to such low scores is improbable, especially given the Eagles' offense's ongoing struggles to find its rhythm.
This is a Cowboys offense that Ranks fifth in total EPA/play, and seventh in success rate. Granted, the Lions and Packers offense both are highly rated and struggled against the Eagles, but one cannot expect the Eagles defense to limit these juggernaut offenses to single-digit points week in and week out.
The Eagles' offense ranks 24th in success rate, with The Jets surprisingly positioned ahead of them. What's particularly troubling about the Eagles' offensive showing last week is that they faced a Lions team that employs man coverage at the second-highest rate in the NFL, yet the Eagles failed to execute any plays specifically designed to counter man coverage. Despite the Cowboys' defense being poor all season, they're now exhibiting signs of improvement, and the Eagles' offense ought to be avoided until they demonstrate a resurgence.
Chiefs Fall to Colts in Kansas City Upset
An 8-2 team isn't typically a +165 underdog against a 5-5 squad, though the historical performance and rosters of these two teams offer some context; however, this line still leans too heavily toward the Chiefs. This is a Indianapolis Colts team boasting the NFL's top offense by virtually any measure. Based on EPA/play, success rate, and DVOA, the Colts hold the No. 1 offensive ranking in the league.
While the Colts' defense isn't as strong as the Eagles', it's far from a disaster, ranking eighth in EPA/play. Their lower DVOA and success rate suggest the Colts' defense has been boosted by numerous turnovers, significantly influencing their EPA/play figures.
While the Colts' defense has seen advantages from their offense's strong performance, this trend might persist in their upcoming match against the Chiefs. The defense is competent but not impenetrable, and the Colts' offense is expected to be capable of advancing the ball against them. The Chiefs' defense ranks 16th by DVOA, 14th in EPA/play, and 20th in success rate.
The Colts get the job done Sunday.