JUMP TO:
- What are NFL player props?
- Types of player props available
- How sportsbooks set prop lines
- Strategies for betting player props
- Stats and matchups that matter most
- Pros and cons of player prop betting
One of the most popular forms of sports betting among casual and hardcore NFL bettors alike is prop betting, or proposition betting. Props allow you to bet on whether specific in-game events or statistics will occur, not necessarily involving the actual outcome or final score of that game.
Prop bets originally started to become commonplace at Super Bowl parties. However, they have taken on new levels of popularity in other regular sporting events since the U.S. Deregulated its federal sports betting laws and allowed individual states to legalize gambling.
The most popular kind of prop bet? The player prop. Week after week, bettors flood the betting market with props involving their favorite NFL stars. It's like fantasy meets betting, with stars' stats making or breaking your betting week just like your head-to-head fantasy football matchups.
Let’s discuss the full definition of NFL player props, which types of player prop bets are most popular and more.
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What are NFL player props?
Player props allow bettors to wager on a players' individual performance either through statistical over/under bets or yes/no bets like touchdown props. Player props have become increasingly popular since sports betting started becoming legal across the United States.
The most popular player props in sports betting are NFL player props. The excitement and popularity of the league combined with the ever-rising popularity of sports betting have made for a perfect marriage for the sportsbooks.
Player props also resemble fantasy football in many ways, with fans predicting each week which players will put up the best yardage totals and touchdown counts. The key to betting player props, like the key to betting anything, is to identify value. It's just like finding sleepers in DFS and fantasy.
Do your research on players and analyze their matchups, then determine if the sportsbooks are undervaluing or overvaluing them on the odds market. If a projection or set of odds seem off, you have found value and pinpointed an edge.
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Types of player props available
Every major stat for every part of the game is typically covered by prop betting. Here's a rundown of the player props available to most NFL bettors from game to game.
Passing
Typical player props listed for quarterbacks include:
- Passing yards over/under
- Passing touchdowns over/under
- Pass attempts over/under
- Anytime touchdown scorer
- First touchdown scorer
- 2+ touchdown scorer
- Interceptions over/under
- Sacks over/under
Rushing
Here's some of the most common rushing player props:
- Rushing yards over/under
- Rushing attempts over/under
- Anytime touchdown scorer
- First touchdown scorer
- 2+ touchdown scorer
Receiving
Now let's look at the props that involve receiving:
- Receiving yards over/under
- Total receptions over/under
- Anytime touchdown scorer
- First touchdown scorer
- 2+ touchdown scorer
Defensive
Finally, let's take a look at some of the defensive player props you might encounter:
- Total tackles over/under
- Solo tackles over/under
- Assisted tackles over/under
- Interceptions over/under
- Sacks over/under
- Will the defense record a safety?
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How sportsbooks set prop lines
Just as sharp bettors use a variety of different methods of researching bets, sportsbooks employ an advanced combination of data, algorithmic models and market perception to set NFL prop lines. The odds are then monitored and shifted depending on betting activity to mitigate risk and liability.
When setting prop lines, data used by oddsmakers can include advanced computer models, historical statistics, past head-to-head matchups, advanced metrics and non-statistical elements (weather, home vs. Road, injuries, rest. Scheduling).
The data-driven approach continues well after lines have been set. Once props go live, sportsbooks will monitor them and adjust the odds if the betting public wagers too heavily on one side. Books want to attract roughly equal betting on both sides of a prop so that they can profit on the "vig" or "juice" they charge.
Oddsmakers also monitor and analyze sharp betting reports, then react accordingly when a professional or a number of pro bettors put big money down on a bet.
MORE: Everything to know about odds in American sports betting
Strategies for betting player props
- Don’t invest too much: Prop bets are usually not smart bets. Many variables exist within games and prop scenarios. Much of the time, props are games of chance or luck. Always stay away from coin flips, and try to only bet player props when they seem like big value opportunities.
- Do your research, always: Head-to-head data, home vs. Away splits and other specific split stats can give you an edge with prop betting and remove some luck from the equation.
- ‘Fun’ isn’t always lucrative: Sometimes, boring is better. It might be fun to bet the OVER so you can root for more yardage or more scoring, but the UNDER tends to be the more lucrative equation in prop betting. Remember that stars' names and public bettors often drive up the over/under and therefore make the UNDER odds more valuable.
- Watch the vig: Some prop sites and apps tack on large commissions or vigs. Know the rates of play before depositing your hard-earned money.
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Stats and matchups that matter most
Here are some stats and matchup data that you should be privy to before you engage in NFL player prop betting.
Matchup data
Look at how a player has fared against a team in the past and in recent history. You can check a players' past results against every team on their Football Reference page.
Defense vs. Position data
You can check out advanced defensive data on Football Reference, too, and more specifically check out how every defense in the NFL defends each major offensive position. For instance, here's how every team defends running backs.
Recent stats and advanced metrics
Look at the players' stats and advanced data on the traditional statistical sites as well as sites like PFF.com. How do they perform in specific situations? Do they tend to cover or does their UNDER always hit? How are they typically graded efficiency-wise?
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Pros and cons of player prop betting
The pros of player prop betting seem obvious: you can take your knowledge of the NFL and its players and use it to make you money. It makes the games more entertaining to watch, gives you a rooting interest even when your team isn't playing, and gives you a chance to hit it big without needing to correctly guess the final scores of games.
There are some cons, however, just like there are cons to any hobby involving spending or risking money.
For one, prop bets often have higher odds and lower limits. Sportsbooks always aim to limit their liability, and with props they tend to cap the amount of money that can be wagered on player props. This discourages high-volume sharp action.
The sheer number of prop bets offered for a single game, never mind all the games, makes it impossible for sportsbooks to devote the same level of scrutiny to each line. Therefore, they limit how much bettors can risk on each bet.
Many prop lines are initially set by automated algorithms using surface-level stats, and sportsbooks may be slow to manually adjust for specific, game-changing factors. This can limit the amount of value wagers that bettors can find on the prop market on a week-to-week basis.
They often add yardage and/or shorted odds on heavily-bet props, too, to reduce the chance they get taken to the proverbial cleaners on the prop market. This can make props a lower-value bet than spreads, moneylines and standard over/under game totals.
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Popular sportsbooks that may be available in your area
Even if sports betting is legal in your state, not all sportsbooks may be available to you. Here are some of the most popular options to look into: