NFL Player Props: 5 Top Plays for Week 10 Games

Bet on Week 10 after viewing our favorite NFL players props. We discuss receiving props for Nico Collins, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and more in the article below.

Best NFL Player Props on Sunday

Try using NFL betting bonuses on DraftKings, BetMGM and FanDuel to place these player props.

Collins Goes Over vs. Jaguars

This isn’t a game many people are going to want to touch due to the low total in the 30s, but there is solid value on Nico Collins here. For starters, he has had a ton of success against this Jaguars team over the years. He has gone over this number in four straight games against them, with 104, 151, 119 and 104 yards in those four games. Different Jaguars defense so it is not the perfect comparison, obviously, but we are also only asking him to get 64 yards instead of 100, which is what he has done in four-straight.

One of those games was earlier this year when he had 104 yards. This Jaguars pass defense is not good in general, and they especially struggle against WRs that line out wide (as opposed to the slot).

They have allowed the third-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to outside WRs, and the fewest to the slot. Luckily, Collins pretty much only lines up outside. Even with the QB change of Davis Mills starting instead of the injured C.J. Stroud, the over is still the way to go here.

Vikings Defense Struggles Defending Flowers

It has been a couple quiet games in a row for Zay Flowers, who has missed this in three straight games, but in his last two he came close with 63 and 64 receiving yards. That said, Lamar Jackson missed four straight games, and Flowers receiving production took a dip in those four games, which makes sense. If we just look at the games in which Lamar played, he is over in four of five games, averaging 73.8 receiving yards per game.

This is also a fantastic matchup against a Vikings defense that has been getting smoked by WRs recently. They were good at the beginning of the year, but here are some of the WR performances against them over their last five games:

• DK Metcalf: 126 yards on an o/u of 52.5
• Devonta Smith 183 & AJ Brown 121 in the same game
• Ladd McConkey: 88 yards on an o/u of 56.5
• Amon-Ra St. Brown & Jameson Williams both over their receiving prop last week

They have not been nearly as good, and this is also a good matchup based on the Vikings style of defense. The Vikings blitz a ton, and Flowers is a go-to target for Jackson when he is being blitzed.

Odunze Bounces Back After Last Week

This is the ultimate fade of recent results in a fantastic matchup, which has the makings of a smash play. Rome Odunze has only gone over this number in one of his last four games, but he went over in three straight heading into that.

Things hit rock bottom last game, when he had zero receptions on three targets, and the Bears happened to score 47 points in that game. It ended up being huge games for Colston Loveland and DJ Moore, who both hadn't done much prior to that this season.

That said, Odunze is still averaging 59 receiving yards per game this season, and that includes this recent stretch of him going under. The guess here is that the Bears are going to make it a point to get him involved in this game after the goose last week, and it's the perfect matchup to do so against a horrendous Giants defense.

The Giants have given up the fourth-most receiving yards per game to WRs, and the second-most receiving yards specifically to the outside WR, which is where Odunze lines up 74% of the time. He goes over Sunday

Smith-Njigba Continues Historic Season

It is a high number in the 90s, but this is a number that Jaxon Smith-Njigba has gone over this number in seven of eight games this year, and, yes, the only game he went under was against this Cardinals defense but is not a reason to be off this play. We just saw both CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens go over their receiving yards prop against the Cardinals last week, and from a coverage perspective this is perfect for Smith-Njigba.

Obviously, he is going to have good numbers against all types of coverages, but specifically his numbers against the Cardinals coverage style are other-worldly. The Cardinals run cover-4 at the highest rate in the NFL, and Smith-Njigba has a comical 8.25 yards per route run against cover-4. That number is so good it essentially breaks the report with how high it is.

The Seahawks also love to throw out of 12 personnel (two TEs on the field with two WRs), with this designed to get the defense in base coverage and then throw over them. The Cardinals play base 77% of the time against 12 personnel, and Smith-Njigba has an absurd 5.55 YPRR against base coverage. He goes off again on Sunday.

Trust McConkey on Sunday Night

Ladd McConkey had a very slow start to the year, but after only cashing once in his first five games, he has gone over in three of four, averaging 77.8 receiving yards per game in those four games. He is coming off going under last game, but he went over in three straight games prior to that with 100, 67 and 88 receiving yards in those three games.

At the beginning of the year, it was Quentin Johnston doing everything, but he has slowed down since that, and the guess here is that we are going to see McConkey have a big second half to the season, which already started.

The Steelers defense has been getting thrown on a ton recently, and it is absurd the yardage totals they have been giving up. On the year, the Steelers have given up the most receiving yards specifically to WRs in the entire NFL, and by a wide margin. They have given up 196.5, and the next closest team is at 171.3. It has been even worse recently, as that number has jumped up to 222 per game since Week 4.