JUMP TO:
- What is middling in NFL betting?
- How line movement creates middling opportunities
- Example of NFL middling in action
- Risks and rewards of the middling strategy
- When middling makes the most sense
- Tips for spotting profitable middles and capitalizing
Every NFL game has dozens and dozens of wagering opportunities beyond the spread, moneyline, over/under and player props. Sharp bettors even sometimes engage in advanced betting strategies like middling, a method of capitalizing on shifting odds to double-dip and maximize profitability.
Betting has become the game within the game, and there's no game in American sports more heavily wagered than football. Why not learn all the strategies at your disposal before embarking upon your football betting journey?
Let's have some more specific conversations about middling and how you can middle your way to a boosted bankroll.
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What is middling in NFL betting?
Middling is a strategy that involves betting on both sides of a game at different lines to create a "middle" range where you can win both bets. It's different from an "arbitrage," in which you make two opposite bets and are guaranteed a profit on either result.
The difference is that with middling, you can sometimes capitalize on extreme live movements by getting good odds on the other side of your pregame wager, then win both the pregame bet and the live bet.
Middling gives you three possible outcomes:
- Big win: The final score lands in the middle range, and you win both your original bet and your subsequent live bet.
- Small loss: The final score lands outside the middle range, and you win one bet while losing the other. The win basically offsets the loss, and you only lose the "vig" (the sportsbook's commission fee for placing the bet for you).
- Push and a win: The final score lands on one of the exact lines. One bet is a push and that stake is returned to you, and the other is a win that results in a profit.
MORE: Everything to know about NFL player props betting
How line movement creates middling opportunities
If you bet on a line when it opens and then the odds shift dramatically due to recent news or public/sharp betting activity, it stands to reason that you could bet on the polar-opposite of your initial bet and then possibly win both bets on the same game.
Middling is basically aiming for the middle of the two spreads you bet. If you hit on the middle attempt exactly, you'll win both. If you hit just one, you will basically break even. There's no way to lose both if you middle correctly, so the risk vs. Reward is highly appealing to most sharps.
MORE: Complete guide to betting on the NFL
Example of NFL middling in action
Say you bet on the underdog Cowboys at +7.5 against the Eagles on one sportsbook. During the game, you see that the Cowboys score the first 10 points because Philadelphia had a bad-luck fumble and a missed field goal. Philly becomes the underdog, suddenly +3.5 on the live market.
If you decide to bet the Eagles +3.5, you have now made a middling wager. Now you're guaranteed a win, and it's quite possible both sides will win. Here's how to break down your possible outcomes:
- If the Cowboys (a) win or (b) lose by fewer than eight points, you win.
- If the Eagles (a) win or (b) lose by fewer than four points, you win.
- If (a) the Cowboys don't lose by eight-plus and (b) the Eagles don't lose by four-plus, you win both your bets and you just took home your first middling victory.
MORE: Why bettors should utilize multiple sports books
Risks and rewards of the middling strategy
Of course, like with any wagering strategy, bettors should contemplate the risks and rewards every time before placing bets.
We'll start with the rewards, which we've already alluded to:
- The potential to win twice on one outcome: The No. 1 goal and potential reward with middling is to win both bets on the same outcome for a larger payout.
- Limited downside: Even though your potential profits have risen, your potential loss has not increased. The worst-case scenario with a middling attempt is you lose one of the bets and lose a little bit of money because of the vig.
- Risk mitigation: Wagering on both sides of a bet acts as a form of a hedge, greatly reducing your potential losses compared to a standard single-sided wager.
- Capitalize on market inefficiencies: Middling opportunities often arise from disparities between different sportsbooks or from line movements caused by public betting, player news or other game-day factors. Experienced bettors often capitalize on these temporary inefficiencies.
Now let's discuss some of the risks involved with middling:
- Higher initial investment: Middling obviously requires bettors to make two separate wagers, which means you need double the capital needed for a single bet.
- Hard to execute: Middling is not a viable option for beginners, who might not be able to recognize when middling opportunities arise. First learn how to read and understand odds and market dynamics, then how to target value on the odds boards.
- Requires more effort through line-shopping: Successful middling depends on finding discrepancies between different sportsbooks or different periods of time. This requires the time and effort of monitoring multiple books simultaneously and line-shopping with quickness and precision.
- Running the risk of losing money: If the outcome of the game falls outside the target "middle" range, one of your bets will win and the other will lose. This will likely result in a small net loss equal to the vig charged by the sportsbooks.
- Potential for a "push": If the final score lands on a whole number that pushes one of your bets, you may only win on the other side. This scenario is still profitable but results in a smaller payout than if you had won both bets.
- Not guaranteed to hit: The middle range is, by its nature, an uncommon outcome. For example, a two-point or three-point scoring margin in a football game is a narrow window. If you don't hit the middle, you will simply pay the vig and experience a small loss. This leaves many attempted middlers feeling like it was a big waste of time and effort, especially when the initial bet hits but the second one loses.
MORE: Everything to know about odds in American sports betting
When middling makes the most sense
Middling makes the most sense when the betting public overreacts to something and then drastically swings the spread to the opposite direction of the initial opening lines. If the market overcompensates for something or overcorrects an initial price oddity, a middling opportunity arises.
You don't want to try middling unless there was some kind of a shift and you can suddenly see value on the other side of your initial wager. It only makes sense if you detect a decent possibility that both bets will hit.
MORE: 10 common betting mistakes made by new bettors
Tips for spotting profitable middles and capitalizing
Here's some tips for bow to find profitable middle opportunities:
- Maintain multiple sportsbook accounts: You can't find middling opportunities if you don't price-shop for different lines. Having multiple sportsbook accounts makes it easier to spot line shifts and capitalize on the moment.
- Consider key numbers in football: For point spreads in football, certain numbers are more likely final margins, especially 3, 4 and 7. Middles involving these numbers are thus more valuable. Keep those numbers in mind when considering a middling attempt.
- Act fast: Sportsbooks are very quick and very savvy, and they tend to follow other sportsbooks' line movements so they share minimum liability. They also monitor sharp money and betting trends closely, so they won't be caught with mispriced odds for long. Since books adjust their lines quickly once they spot a potential weakness, you need to act quickly the moment you see a middling opportunity.
- Anticipate line movements: Think like an oddsmaker. When news breaks — like player injuries, suspensions or even weather reports — lines change. Anticipate those changes. Ask yourself, "What will the betting fallout be?" And predict the line change so you can proactively plan out your strategy.
- Consider live betting: Live betting always features a high volume of fluctuating lines during games, revealing countless middling opportunities. When a heavy favorite falls behind early, their live point spread often decreases. When a game with a low over/under starts with a lot of offense, the total could skyrocket. Use these spikes to your advantage and recognize when regression could be coming.
- Manage your bankroll well: To middle effectively, you must place two separate wagers, which requires a firm grasp of bankroll management. Remember to bet responsibly and never bet more than you can afford to lose.
MORE: Key sports betting terms every beginner should know
Popular sportsbooks that may be available in your area
Even if sports betting is legal in your state, not all sportsbooks may be available to you. Here are some of the most popular options to look into: