JUMP TO:
- What is live betting in the NFL?
- How live betting odds are calculated
- Popular NFL live betting markets
- Advantages of NFL live betting
- Challenges and risks of in-game wagering
- Strategies for finding value in live NFL markets
NFL betting involves a lot more than wagering on the moneyline, spread and over/under total of a game that has yet to begin. Live betting allows bettors to make real-time bets during the course of a game.
This form of sports betting has become increasingly popular over the years, especially during professional football contests.
So, how do you live bet an NFL game? How do you read live betting odds and determine value? What are the best strategies to win as a live bettor? Keep reading to learn everything you need to know about live betting.
MORE: Complete guide to betting on the NFL
What is live betting in the NFL?
NFL live betting is placing wagers on a game after it has already started. Unlike pre-game betting, where you analyze statistics beforehand, live betting allows you to make real-time reactions and betting decisions as the action unfolds and the odds shift.
What is a live sports bet?
A live sports bet is any wager made on a game or any of the players involved in that game after it starts and before it ends. This can be the moneyline, spread, over/under, player props or game props.
Also known as "in-game betting" or "in-play betting," live betting involves constantly-changing odds in response to what's happening during the game.
How to read live betting odds
Like all bets, live bets typically carry positive or negative odds.
- Odds listed with a positive (+) sign indicate that something is less likely to happen, and reflect how much money you would make on a winning $100 bet.
- Odds listed with a negative (-) sign are more likely to occur, and indicate how much money you would need to bet in order to win $100 on a winning bet.
MORE: Why bettors should utilize multiple sports books
How live betting odds are calculated
Live NFL betting odds are calculated in real time by a combination of professional oddsmakers and powerful algorithms that process vast amounts of data.
Unlike fixed pre-game odds, live odds constantly shift to reflect the current state of the game, public betting patterns and other dynamic factors. The goal for sportsbooks, as always, is to mitigate risk and attract balanced betting action to ensure they make a profit, regardless of the game's final outcome.
Key factors that influence live odds include:
- Game developments
- Score and time remaining
- Field position and possession
- Momentum shifts
- Critical plays
- Player and personnel changes
- Injuries
- Weather
- Penalties/ejections
- Coaching decisions
- Market and betting factors
- Public betting volume
- Sharp money/sharp betting handle
- Risk management/liability limitations
- Statistical models/algorithms/analysis of past historical data
MORE: Everything to know about odds in American sports betting
Popular NFL live betting markets
Live betting basically allows bettors to make wagers on games after the game has started. Thus, many of the popular standard pregame markets are also available during the game.
The only difference is that live betting odds will fluctuate throughout the course of the game — sometimes greatly — while many pregame odds won't change as greatly in the days leading up to the game.
Spreads
A wager on the difference in the number of points between the two teams at the end of the game. Live spreads tend to be much more popular that live moneylines, as the books usually go heavier on favorites when they have an active lead.
Totals
Also referred to as the over/under, a total bet is a wager on the number of points scored relative to the over/under line.
If a total on a game is set at 48.5 points, a wager on the over means 49 or more points must be scored in order to win the bet. A wager on the under of 48.5 total points means 48 or fewer points must be scored in order to win the bet.
Many sharps capitalize on the under after early flurries in scoring, knowing a negative regression is likely. Conversely, poor starts often lead pro bettors to value-bet the over.
Props
Props have become very popular in the NFL, and live props are no different.
Player props allow you to bet on a player's odds to go over or under a statistical amount, or to score a touchdown, two touchdowns, or the first TD of the game.
Game props allow you to bet on the game or one of the teams to reach a certain amount of stats, or to achieve or fail to achieve one of the many yes/no prop questions throughout the game (e.g. Will either team record a safety or a two-point conversion?).
Next drive
Next drive props allow bettors to wager on whether or not something will occur on the very next drive of the game. It's a popular option for bettors who enjoy following the game narrative and predicting how the remaining game script will play out.
MORE: 10 common betting mistakes made by new bettors
Advantages of NFL live betting
There are many advantages of NFL live betting, including:
- Being able to react to real-time events and use game knowledge to predict what's next
- The availability of better and potentially more lucrative odds than the pregame offerings
- The opportunity to employ hedge-bet strategies to minimize risk and negate losses
- Exploitative opportunities through the capitalization of live market inefficiencies/mispriced live odds/wild fluctuations
- Enhanced entertainment/fun factor for a standalone game a bettor might be watching
MORE: Key sports betting terms every beginner should know
Challenges and risks of in-game wagering
Of course, many challenges and risks exist in live betting. Take note of these downsides of the market before jumping headfirst into the in-game wagering pool:
- It's fast-paced and ever-shifting — and run by live models, algorithms and professional oddsmakers — therefore more volatile and less simple to research than pregame betting.
- It can make bettors more impulsive, because they're reacting live to events and chasing immediate/instant gratification of live wins.
- It can also cause bettors to consider chasing losses in real time, forget to follow their strategy and their bankroll management guidelines, and bet with their heart rather than their head.
- Bettors watching from home might not realize the broadcast they're viewing has a delay of several seconds, putting them at a disadvantage compared to the faster, real-time data feeds utilized by sportsbooks. This can cause bettors to make wagers based on information that is no longer current, giving the house a massive edge.
- Sportsbooks often pause live betting markets after major in-game events, such as a score or a penalty. This can prevent bettors from placing wagers they thought they had opportunities to make.
- Even when markets are open, there can be a short delay between a bettor clicking "place bet" and the sportsbook accepting it. If the odds change during this lag, the bet may be accepted at different, less favorable odds or rejected entirely.
MORE: Complete guide for how to bet on college football
Strategies for finding value in live NFL markets
With live betting, time is money. The odds constantly shift throughout games and matches, so it’s imperative that you work quickly and efficiently when trying to find an edge and place a strong value bet. The window in live betting can be lightning-quick — in many cases, the odds shift and a bet will be rejected before the next play even happens.
Former AllSportsPeople betting expert Nick Musial, a highly-profitable live bettor, once highlighted a few key tips and strategies to be a successful live bettor. Here's Nick's tips:
Utilize the closing line as a marker
The closing line is the last line available before betting markets close prior to the start of a game or match. Historical data has shown that the closing line is the best indicator of the outcome of a game. This makes sense, as more information (injury status, sharp betting money, etc.) Becomes known as game time approaches, which causes the moneyline, point spread, and total to sharpen up.
For example, in Game 1 of the 2022 Eastern Conference Finals, the Miami Heat closed as consensus five-point favorites after opening as shorter two-point favorites. The Celtics were without two key starters (Marcus Smart, Al Horford). Smart and Horford had an impact on the implied win probability for the Celtics, and without them on the court, the Heat had a better shot of winning the game outright and by several points.
Given the volatility in NBA games, the Heat found themselves trailing by 13 points with 5:37 remaining in the second quarter. If making a live bet on this game utilizing the closing line as a marker, at that point the Heat were around a +6.5-point underdog. Making a live bet on the Heat +6.5 made sense. The Heat erased the double-digit deficit, winning the game 118-107 and covering the closing line of -5 points.
It’s important to note that sometimes the closing line can be a misleading marker, primarily when injuries occur, which brings us to our next tip.
MORE: Everything to know about betting on NFL player props
Monitor in-game injuries
In-game injuries can present opportunities to take advantage of live odds. When a key player goes down mid-game, it takes a bit of time for the live odds to factor in that player’s impact on the money line, point spread, and total.
Back in the first round of the 2022 Western Conference playoffs, Suns guard Devin Booker left Game 2 against the Pelicans with a right hamstring injury. At the time of the injury, the Suns trailed the Pelicans 77-74 with 4:47 remaining in the third quarter. Following the injury, the Suns were unable to come back, losing by a final score of 125-114.
A star like Booker obviously stands out more, but even a key role player could have a big effect on a team's ability to maintain a lead or come back from a deficit. You don't want to jump to conclusions and immediately live bet as soon as you see a player down on the floor for a few seconds, but you also shouldn't completely ignore the telltale signs of a serious injury either.
Sometimes, you'll get burned, like when Marcus Smart and Jayson Tatum both looked seriously injured — only to return minutes later -- during Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals, but if you’re paying close enough attention, taking advantage of how an in-game injury will impact the final score can be a profitable endeavor.
Understand teams’ rotations
Games in basketball, football and hockey are quite long and grueling, so teams will have rotations allowing certain stars to rest. Knowing teams' rotations can help you profit off moneyline, spread, over/under, player props and game props during games.
If a team is down big, it's not as dire as it used to be in the NBA, NFL and NHL. Backup rotations and benches are stronger than ever before, teams are deeper, and therefore big swings can occur for any team in any matchup.
This allows for an opportunity to make live bets, likely on a pre-game favorite that’s trailing, knowing it will bring back its key players for the more important stretches of the game. This is especially true in the postseason, where starters play extended minutes, particularly in the second half when they’re needed most.
Live betting brings an entirely different way to wager on NBA games. It allows you to adjust to new information that might not have been available (or widely known) before tip-off. Sticking to the basic live-betting strategies above should help you cash some tickets and enjoy a more dynamic betting experience.
Finally, know when to hedge. If you have a pre-game bet in place that seems like it's not going to hit, hedge the bet and make a wager on the opposite of the original bet. It's better to break even than lose, so utilizing live betting to get out of an impending loss can be crucial to not dinging your bankroll.
Best value in live betting
The best value you can find on a live bet is plus odds for a strong team that started off slow or fell victim to a below-average team that enjoyed a vastly better start than usual.
If a team with a poor record shoots 65 percent in the first half of an NBA game but only has a seven-point lead on a top team in the rankings, it's a great idea to live-bet the top team against the spread.
Similarly, if a stud shooter starts a game ice cold and has just a few points at halftime, it might be a good idea to capitalize on the value with their listed OVER.
The best value in betting, as always, is when you got strong odds on something that feels like it's destined to happen. Learn to follow in-game trends and start to recognize the flow of games, and you will become a successful live sports bettor. Just like playing sports, getting the reps in makes you better in time. Start small, and build your way up!
MORE: What is 'middling' in sports betting?
Popular sportsbooks that may be available in your area
Even if sports betting is legal in your state, not all sportsbooks may be available to you. Here are some of the most popular options to look into: