After two NFL games on Saturday for the start of the divisional round, the weekend finishes with two matchups on Sunday. We explain our favorite NFL divisional round props for the following games.
- Houston Texans vs. New England Patriots, 3 p.m. ET
- Los Angeles Rams vs. Chicago Bears, 6:30 p.m. ET
NFL Divisional Round Props
Make these NFL divisional round props using bonuses on DraftKings and bet365.
C.J. Stroud Under 207.5 Passing Yards (-113) DraftKings
This might seem like a low number to take an under on, but for good reason. Stroud did go over this last week against the Steelers, but this Patriots matchup is a completely different animal. On the year, the Patriots allowed the second-fewest passing yards allowed. While their schedule did have something to do with that, they still ended the season with the eighth-best defensive passing DVOA in the NFL, which, to confirm, takes into account the strength of schedule. The Steelers, for context, ended the year with the 20th-ranked passing DVOA on defense.
Overall, only four of the last 15 quarterbacks against the Patriots went over their passing prop over/under, with the last one being Baker Mayfield back on November 9th. Eight straight QBs have gone under, including Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Justin Herbert last week. So, even good QBs were still going under.
There is also huge injury news heading into this game over the status of Texans star WR in Nico Collins who is out for this game with a concussion. He only played two games this season without Collins, going over in one and under in the other, but the game he went over was against a 49ers defense that allowed the eighth-most passing yards per game.
Lastly, we just saw the Patriots absolutely throttle an overmatched offensive line last week in the Chargers, which is what led to Justin Herbert only throwing for 159 total yards, and the guess here is that we see the same thing this week with the Texans and their sixth-worst rated offensive line in the NFL (Chargers OL was ranked 30th).
Blake Corum over 41.5 Rushing Yards (-110) bet365
Taking out Week 17 in which he left the game early due to injury, Corum has hit this over in eight of his last 10 games, including last weeks playoff victory over the Panthers, averaging 10.9 rush attempts per game. Despite that being a close game where the Panthers needed to keep pace with the Panthers, Corum still earned 11 rushing attempts to Kyren Williams 13. So, he only had two fewer rush attempts, while Williams line is set at 59.5 as opposed to Corums 41.5.
As far as the matchup goes, this is not a good Bears run defense that only got weaker due to the injury of starting linebacker T.J. Edwards, who was a good run defender. On the year, the Bears ended the season with the fifth-worst rushing defensive DVOA in the NFL, and the 24th-ranked defensive EPA/Rush. Overall, they allowed the sixth-most rushing yards per game.
This is also a game projected to be frigid and windy, which should lean to the Rams leaning on the ground game as much as they can. So, the guess here is that Corum receives another 10+ carries in this one, going over this 41.5 number.