The first day of the divisional round of the NFL playoffs is this Saturday, with both one seeds playing their first playoff game in the Broncos and Seahawks, going up against the Bills and 49ers, respectively.
The first game of the day is set for a 4:30 kickoff between the Bills and Broncos, with the 49ers and Seahawks taking the night game at 8 p.m. ET. For this article we will be detailing our favorite NFL divisional round picks for these matchups.
Best NFL Divisional Round Picks for Saturday
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Bills vs. Broncos Odds & Best Bets
| FanDuel Odds | DraftKings Odds | BetMGM Odds | |
| Bills Moneyline | -102 | -105 | -102 |
| Broncos Moneyline | -116 | -115 | -118 |
| Bills Spread | +1.5 (-115) | +1.5 (-118) | +1.5 (-115) |
| Broncos Spread | -1.5 (-105) | -1.5 (-102) | -1.5 (-105) |
| Total | o46.5 (-102); u46.5 (-120) | o45.5 (-112); u45.5 (-108) | o46 (-110); u46 (-110) |
It is rare to see the No. 1 seed in the conference such a light favorite in their first game of the playoffs, but it makes sense in this case. The Buffalo Bills actually opened up as the favorite, but were quickly bet down to the slight underdog that you see now.
That said, the Denver Broncos are a young, up-and-coming team led by second year QB in Bo Nix, but a team that won a lot of games in unconvincing fashion. Even though they had the best record in the NFL (tied with the Seahawks at 14-3), their point differential was +90. Still a good number, but six teams had a higher point differential than them. That includes this Bills team that finished 12-5 but with a point differential of +116.
Here are some of those close Broncos victories, for context:
- 13-11 victory over the Jets
- 33-32 victory over the Giants
- 10-7 victory over the Raiders
- 27-26 victory over the Commanders (in OT)
- 24-17 victory over the Raiders
The Broncos won 12 of their last 13 games, but 10 of them were by one-score, including six by three or fewer points. So, this is all to say that the Broncos are not the most impressive No. 1 seed that we've seen, but they are led by a ferocious defense. They ended the season with the best defensive success rate and the fifth-best defensive DVOA in the NFL.
Their defense will need to step up against the Josh Allen led Bills offense, who ended the season with the third-best offense in the NFL per EPA/play, and the second-best success rate. It is a tough matchup made even tougher for Allen, as the Bills only have three currently healthy WRs on the roster after the ACL injury to Gabe Davis last week.
The Bills run defense is their biggest issue on the other side of the ball, but a slightly below-average Broncos run offense is not primed to take advantage of that. It is not always this easy, but at the end of the day trusting Josh Allen is the way to go here, who made enough plays against Jacksonville to get the victory, and does something similar this week.
The Pick: Bills Moneyline (-102) FanDuel
49ers vs. Seahawks Odds & Best Bets
| FanDuel Odds | DraftKings Odds | BetMGM Odds | |
| 49ers Moneyline | +290 | +275 | +280 |
| Seahawks Moneyline | -360 | -345 | -350 |
| 49ers Spread | +7 (-105) | +7 (-102) | +7 (-102) |
| Seahawks Spread | -7 (-115) | -7 (-118) | -7 (-118) |
| Total | o44.5 (-118); u44.5 (-104) | o45.5 (-102); u45.5 (-118) | o45 (-110); u45 (-110) |
This NFC matchup is a fun rematch from Week 18, where the winner of that game would get the No. 1 seed in the entire NFC playoffs, a victory that went to Seattle, of course. The San Francisco 49ers were big underdogs last week and managed to take down the Eagles in Philadelphia, but this is a much tougher task against the Seahawks.
That Week 18 game saw the 49ers only manage to put up a measly three points and 173 yards of total offense. It was complete domination by the Seattle Seahawks defense, and it is easy to see something similar happen in this game as well. That 49ers team did play without LT Trent Williams, who returned last week against the Eagles and is expected to play again this week, but they will be missing George Kittle, who is a huge loss.
It would not be a surprise to see a similarly dominant performance from Seattle again, who were either the best or second-best defense in the NFL this year. They finished with the second-best EPA/Play, the third-best success rate but the best defensive DVOA. So, while the 49ers did have a impressive offensive performance against another good Philadelphia defense last week, this Seahawks defense is an entirely different animal, as illustrated above.
Defensively, the 49ers held the Seahawks to only 13 points in that Week 18 game, but the Seahawks had 361 yards of total offense and looked as though they put the offense in cruise control as their defense completely shut down the 49ers offense. The guess here is that something similar happens to this one, a game in which the Seahawks cover the touchdown spread. The under is a good look in this game as well.
The Pick: Seahawks -7 (-115) FanDuel