One of the most popular sports betting trends in recent years is targeting props centered around NFL players approaching milestones or statistics that trigger contract incentives.
Depending on the playoff status of that player's team, his teammates and maybe even coaches may be motivated to help those players execute on those achievements.
These can be exploited if handled correctly when betting on the NFL. Context matters, chiefly via the game matchup and team situation.
We should at least list these opportunities, though, right?
I already dove into my betting strategy for Sam Darnold and Rico Dowdle incentives for Saturday afternoon action.
Below are more of the most direct examples of how to bet alongside the players chasing bonuses and gain some found money of our own. (Parlay them if you have the funds and willingness to lose!)
QB contract incentives to bet in NFL Week 18
Besides our previously covered Sam Darnold Week 18 milestones, no QB incentives exist that are possible to bet on for props.
Aaron Rodgers reportedly earns $500,000 with a Steelers win over the Ravens in the win-or-go-home Sunday Night Football clash for arguably NFL's best rivalry, so that's a mere Steelers moneyline bet. (Up to you!)
Jimmy Garoppolo has snap-related incentives if he replaces Matthew Stafford for at least a quarter of the snap count for the Rams.
MORE: 2025 NFL player contract incentives
RB contract incentives to bet in NFL Week 18
Tony Pollard: Over 67.5 rushing yards (-118) at BetMGM Sportsbook
Sportsbooks feel comfortable offering this one despite Pollard needing 66 ground yards to net himself a $250,000 bonus.
The Jaguars' run defense is the toughest in the NFL (1,090 yards allowed to running backs all season), but Cam Ward's recent success under center should open up the ground game more than it has just about all year for the Titans.
Pollard himself has logged 60-plus rushing yards in each of his past five games and nine times overall this season.
Tony Pollard needs 66 rushing yards to earn $250,000 bonus in Week 18.@Titans running back is averaging 113 rushing yards over his last four games.
— John Ewing (@johnewing) January 2, 2026
75% of money is on Pollard OVER 68.5 rushing yards at @BetMGM
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If you want the safer play that meets his exact trend, go with 60+ rushing yards (-159) at DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Saquon Barkley: 90+ scrimmage yards (markets unavailable)
Though the Eagles are expected to rest most starers in the season finale, a small-unit bet that Barkley breaks off a few big plays if he's active could pay off if you plan for the loss.
Most sportsbooks have nothing beyond QB props up for this game as of overnight into Saturday morning, so we might not even get the chance to grab a ticket on mobile sports betting.
Keep an eye out.
Kareem Hunt: 30+ or 40+ scrimmage yards (markets unavailable)
As with Barkley, sportsbooks are avoiding offering categories for Hunt Rush+Rec Yds, as he's 31 away from a $125,000 bonus.
Take a peek early Sunday to see if any operators open them up. Avoid betting any odds shorter than -200.
More RB incentives to watch
- Texans' Nick Chubb needs 94 rushing yards for $250,000 but is only a longshot, "roll the dice" bet. Woody Marks remains RB1, and Chubb hasn't met that single-game yardage total since September 2023.
MORE: NFL player prop betting, explained
WR contract incentives to bet in NFL Week 18
Stefon Diggs: 40+ receiving yards (-190) at Caesars Sportsbook
Stefon Diggs: Over 4.5 receptions (-190) at BetMGM
Stefon Diggs: 6+ receptions (+131) at DraftKings Sportsbook
Diggs needs 30 or more yards through the air as well as eight more receptions to unlock a $500,000 incentive for each.
However, given Diggs' heavy role in this offense, any listing that low presents odds that have no return on investment. Across major operators, this at least offers some notable gains on our bet, though I typically dislike wagering with odds this close to -200.
Even with his off-field woes this week, Diggs should see plenty of targets; he's earned 16 across the past two weeks, and with the NFL possibly contemplating swift discipline, the Pats may want to get the most out of Diggs while they can.
The Pats also will need every hand available while chasing the AFC's No. 1 seed.
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Khalil Shakir: Anytime TD (markets unavailable)
Major sportsbooks have not released any Bills-Jets player props, with the uncertainty of Buffalo's plans to play their starters and the information widely known about Shakir's 1 TD catch that would net him $150,000.
This would be one of the easier quick-twitch bets to place if they suddenly go live, so keep nimble fingers on this 4:25 p.m. ET start.
Keenan Allen: 10+/20+/30+ receiving yards, 9+ receptions, 2+ TDs (markets unavailable)
The Bolts' wideout has looked like his vintage self while netting $2.25 million in bonuses already. He needs, in order of likelihood, (1) 9 receiving yards for another $250,000, (2) 6 catches for $750,000, and (3) 2 touchdowns for $250,000.
No sportsbook is budging by offering these yet, but keep checking your apps heading into the 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff Sunday.
Marquise Brown: Anytime TD (+340) at FanDuel Sportsbook
Here's a fun longshot if you have the room for it.
Due to Rashee Rice's return from suspension and injury, Hollywood has scored just one touchdown since Week 7.
However, with the Chiefs having nothing to play for, they could look to pay off their steady veteran.
📱 Claim the best FanDuel promo code before signing up and betting.
MORE: NFL props, live markets, and advanced strategies explained
TE contract incentives to bet in NFL Week 18
Hunter Henry: Over 4.5 Receptions (+110) at FanDuel
The Patriots' tight end needs 5 receptions to secure a $250,000 bonus.
New England's rotating alpha receiver baton should go his way against a Dolphins defense that has tied for the second-most receptions allowed to tight ends this year (102).
Again, the Patriots will look to use their best players all game as they look to position themselves in the best way possible for the AFC's No. 1 seed.
Dawson Knox: 5+ receiving yards, Anytime TD, and/or 6+ catches (markets unavailable)
Buffalo's tight end already has cashed in on $850,000 in bonuses and has a few more within reach -- though two are more realistic than the heavy day of catches.
Again, with uncertainty over Bills starters' snap counts and the prevention of any prop market prowlers for Knox and Shakir, sportsbooks have avoided offering these tickets as of early Saturday morning.
MORE: Hedging bets |
Best NFL Week 18 sportsbooks that may be available in your area
Even if sports betting is legal in your state, not all sportsbooks may be available to you. Here are some of the most popular options to look into:
- DraftKings
- FanDuel
- Fanatics
- BetMGM
- bet365
- Caesars
- theScore Bet
- Hard Rock Bet
- Betr
- BetRivers
MORE: How sportsbooks set betting lines