JUMP TO:
- Why NFL betting is more than just the spread
- Player props: Breaking down individual performances
- Live betting markets: How odds shift during games
- Middling opportunities: When to bet both sides
- Pros and cons of advanced NFL betting markets
- Tips for finding value beyond the spread
So, you want to bet on the NFL? Welcome to the club! An estimated 73.5 million people bet on the NFL in some capacity each year, and the total amount of money bet per year is around $30 billion (that's "billion" with a "b"!).
Betting on football involves far more than the casual fan might think, though. Of course, every sports fan has heard about the "points spread," or the amount the favorite is projected to win by. That's just the tip of the iceberg, at this point.
Let's dive deeper into NFL betting, and discuss why the landscape of football wagering has become far more than just the spread.
MORE: Complete guide to betting on the NFL
Why NFL betting is more than just the spread
Every NFL game has dozens and dozens of wagering opportunities beyond the basic points spread. They each also have the moneyline (winner/loser), over/under totals (total points for each team), individual player props (stat over/unders), team props, defensive bets and sometimes even novelty bets that have nothing to do with the game itself (shout out to Taylor Swift!).
Betting has become the game within the game, and there's no game in American sports more heavily wagered on than football. Now that you have an idea of the sheer volume of bets available to the modern NFL bettor, let's have some more specific conversations about some of the wager types with which you might be a bit unfamiliar.
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Player props: Breaking down individual performances
Player props allow bettors to wager on a players' individual performance either through statistical over/under bets or yes/no bets like touchdown props. Player props have become increasingly popular since sports betting started becoming legal across the United States.
The most popular player props in sports betting are NFL player props. The excitement and popularity of the league combined with the ever-rising popularity of sports betting have made for a perfect marriage for the sportsbooks.
Player props also resemble fantasy football in many ways, with fans predicting each week which players will put up the best yardage totals and touchdown counts. The key to betting player props, like the key to betting anything, is to identify value. It's just like finding sleepers in DFS and fantasy.
Do your research on players and analyze their matchups, then determine if the sportsbooks are undervaluing or overvaluing them on the odds market. If a projection or set of odds seem off, you have found value and pinpointed an edge.
MORE: Why bettors should utilize multiple sports books
Live betting markets: How odds shift during games
During NFL games, betting odds change constantly to reflect the on-field action, such as scoring plays, turnovers, injuries and rule changes. This real-time process, known as live or in-game betting, differs significantly from pre-game odds, which are primarily influenced by expert analysis and betting volume before kickoff.
The live moneyline, spread and over/under tend to change every time a team scores, so it's imperative to pay attention if you're hoping to be a successful live bettor. Sometimes, when an underdog scores the first touchdown, their odds will shorten and the favorite will suddenly become a far greater value investment than they just were before the game started.
Other value opportunities can be found on the player prop market. If a QB racks up multiple touchdowns and 200 yards in the first half, their player prop projections might suddenly be through the roof. Betting the player's under, especially if his team seems poised to run away with the game, might make sense as his passing volume could significantly decrease in the second half.
Focus on how each team is controlling the ball on their possessions. Are they routinely moving the chains with first downs and efficient yards-per-carry averages? Are they winning the turnover margin? Which team averages more yards per play and more yards per drop-back? How have injuries played a part? Is one team committing far more penalties?
All these variables will play a part in the odds shifting, and all of them should be considered by bettors before they place a live wager. We must also consider the non-quantifiable factors, like home field, momentum, weather and experience.
An important fact to remember: sportsbooks adjust live odds to manage their risk and encourage betting on both sides of a wager. If the majority of live bettors are favoring one team, the odds will shift to make betting on the other side more attractive. Thus, the odds can sometimes have more to do with the betting public than the game itself.
MORE: Everything to know about odds in American sports betting
Middling opportunities: When to bet both sides
"Middling" is a strategy that involves betting on both sides of a game at different lines to create a "middle" range where you can win both bets. It's different from an "arbitrage," in which you make two opposite bets and are guaranteed a profit on either result.
The difference is that with middling, you can sometimes capitalize on extreme live movements by getting good odds on the other side of your pregame wager, then win both the pregame bet and the live bet.
Middling gives you three possible outcomes:
- A big win: The final score lands in the middle range, and you win both your original bet and your subsequent live bet.
- A small loss: The final score lands outside the middle range, and you win one bet while losing the other. The win basically offsets the loss, and you only lose the "vig" (the sportsbook's commission fee for placing the bet for you).
- A push and a win: The final score lands on one of the exact lines. One bet is a push and that stake is returned to you, and the other is a win that results in a profit.
Middling is most common with point spreads and totals (over/under). Let's take a look at a hypothetical example:
Say you bet on the underdog Cowboys at +7.5 against the Eagles on one sportsbook. During the game, you see that the Cowboys score the first 10 points because Philadelphia had a bad-luck fumble and a missed field goal. Philly becomes the underdog, suddenly +3.5 on the live market.
If you decide to bet the Eagles +3.5, you have now made a middling wager. Now you're guaranteed a win, and it's quite possible both sides will win. Here's how to break down your possible outcomes:
- If the Cowboys (a) win or (b) lose by fewer than eight points, you win.
- If the Eagles (a) win or (b) lose by fewer than four points, you win.
- If (a) the Cowboys don't lose by eight-plus and (b) the Eagles don't lose by four-plus, you win both your bets and you just took home your first middling victory.
MORE: 10 common betting mistakes made by new bettors
Pros and cons of advanced NFL betting markets
Advanced NFL betting markets allow bettors to capitalize on advanced research and a deeper understanding of the game, teams and players than most casual bettors. If you regularly reveal advanced stat trends and have a knack for predicting specific player breakouts or in-game swings, you will probably be a good player prop and/or live-game bettor.
Advanced NFL betting markets also tend to involve less predictive and projective research from the sportsbooks/oddsmakers than the typical moneyline, spread and over/under. Since the odds are shifting based on the game itself, they can present value-betting opportunities if you think one team or player will positively or negatively regress between the current situation and the end of the game.
Of course, some cons do exist when wagering on advanced NFL betting markets. The more complex your bets, the more volatile they can be. This is true with parlays as well as middling and arbitrage opportunities. Some of the most successful bettors simply engage in traditional bets for these reasons. Keep it simple and your bets will be of the lower-risk variety.
Betting these markets can also take up significantly more time, especially if you're engaging in the appropriate levels of research before placing your wagers. If you do your homework and analyze both teams' recent forms, individual player stats and advanced stats, injury reports and head-to-head matchup data, you increase your chances of winning but also increase the amount of time and effort you have put into betting.
Remember, too, that sportsbooks almost always have an edge because their No. 1 mission in life is to win your money. They run sophisticated models and algorithms, employ brilliant oddsmakers and statisticians and regularly access all the date you've seen and more. Never think that you're more savvy than the book with which you're placing your bets.
MORE: Key sports betting terms every beginner should know
Tips for finding value beyond the spread
Here are some tips for finding value beyond the spread in NFL betting:
- Find alternative markets: Dive deeper into a matchup. Click on a game on your sportsbook and peruse the various tabs to see all the betting opportunities within each game.
- Capitalize on undervalued underdogs: Not all 'dogs are created equal. If your advanced research tells you that a specific team has a good chance of mounting an upset and they're yielding longer odds than you think they should yield, capitalize.
- Analyze totals and zig when the public zags: The under market is the path less traveled, but it sure generates a ton of betting wins. In standalone and primetime games, the majority of the betting public tends to bet the over because it's more fun to root for points. If the under has been bet up by the public, you might want to capitalize on it if your research tells you it's overly inflated.
- Consider game conditions and game script: Don't forget about your weather reports. Monitor the injury report. Pay attention to pace of play and how each team is defending the pass/run. Find edges before and during the game that will give you an advantage.
- Jump the line with futures bets: Don't forget about the futures market. Those who bet on Josh Allen to win 2024 MVP and Saquon Barkley to win Offensive Player of the Year know what we're talking about. Get your value in early and beat the books to the punch before they react to a recent game that you think will significantly shorten a player or team's odds in an awards or Super Bowl market.
MORE: Complete guide for how to bet on college football
Popular sportsbooks that may be available in your area
Even if sports betting is legal in your state, not all sportsbooks may be available to you. Here are some of the most popular options to look into: