There are 11 NBA games on Wednesday, including a doubleheader on ESPN with the Timberwolves vs. Knicks and Spurs vs. Lakers. We analyze NBA props for both matchups, along with the Rockets vs. Grizzlies.
NBA Props and Best Bets
Use NBA betting bonuses on bet365, DraftKings and Fanatics for these wagers.
| NBA Props | Odds |
| Luka Doncic Over 10.5 1st Quarter Points | +105 on bet365 |
| Jalen Brunson Over 27.5 Points | +105 on Fanatics |
| Alperen Sengun Over 6.5 Assists | +115 on DraftKings |
Doncic Starts Hot vs. Spurs
Luka Doncic has consistently been a fast starter throughout the years in the NBA. Whether he was on the Mavericks or his limited time on the Lakers last year and through four games this year, he gets started early. He did not play in the Lakers last game due to it being the second half of a back-to-back, making him nice and rested for this big game against the Spurs tonight.
The last time we saw Doncic play he only scored seven points in the first quarter, shot 1/5 from the field, and 0/4 from deep. The two games prior to that he scored 23 and 13 points in the first quarter, so we know he can do it. As a member of the Lakers, he has gone over this number in 20 of 34 (58.8%) games, and in six of nine games without LeBron James.
While the matchup is tough because the Spurs defense is good, Doncic has shown the ability to put up 11+ points in the first quarter against all kinds of defenses, including the good ones. We'll trust him tonight.
Brunson with Key Performance at MSG
The Timberwolves have been known of being an elite defense, but that has not been the case at least to start this year, and the areas in which they've been bad are perfect for Jalen Brunson. They give up the most points per game to pick-and-roll ball handlers, literally 30th out of 30. Not only does Brunson score most of his points via the PnR, but he scores the 7th-most in the NBA as the PnR ball handler.
Brunson also does a great job getting to the line, and the Timberwolves foul at the sixth-highest rate in the NBA. All in all, the Timberwolves have given up the fourth-most points per game to point guards, which makes sense considering everything mentioned above.
He has been fantastic for most of this year, going over this number in 5 of seven games, hitting it in five straight games before missing in his last start against the Wizards, when he only shot 6/17 from the floor and 1/5 from deep. In a big game in which the Timberwolves should be getting Anthony Edwards back from a hamstring injury, Brunson shows out time.
Sengun Dimes Up Grizzlies
Alperen Sengun has gone over this number in four of six games, and both games he went under he had exactly six assists, so he came close. There is nothing flukey about his numbers either, as he is averaging 12.8 potential assists per game. He had two low games with only nine potentials, but all the other four games he had 13 or more potential assists.
Now, he gets a dream matchup against a horrific Grizzlies defense who are currently allowing the 8th-most assists per game in the NBA, and specifically play an aggressive style of defense that tries to get the ball out of the hands of whoever has it, which leads to a lot of assists for the leading ball-handler on the opposing team.
For most teams, that is normally the point guard, but for the Rockets that would be Sengun. He leads the team is total touches and in total passes, unsurprisingly leading the team in both assists and potential assists. So, whoever has the ball in their hands has success with assists against the Grizzlies, which is going to be Sengun.