JUMP TO:
- Why betting the NBA playoffs is different
- Pace of play: Slower games, lower totals
- Rotations tighten in the playoffs
- Defensive intensity and matchup adjustments
- How sportsbooks adjust lines in the postseason
- Strategies for betting NBA Playoffs vs. Regular season
People love betting on the NBA, with a projected estimate of nearly 20 million American basketball bettors each year. The numbers will only rise, too, with betting legalized in more U.S. States each year.
So, when is the best time to bet on the NBA? Is the regular season a better time to find value, or are the playoffs the proverbial bread and butter for sharp bettors?
Here's everything you need to know about the differences between betting the NBA regular season and the NBA Playoffs.
MORE: Complete guide to betting the NBA
Why betting the NBA playoffs is different
In the NBA Playoffs, everything tends to tighten up. The rotations shorten, the defense gets more intense, the crowds get more raucous and the coaches draw up their best plays and roll out their best strategies. It's a massive contrast to much of the regular season in a number of ways.
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Pace of play: Slower games, lower totals
When teams play in the regular season, they often maintains a quick pace. In the NBA playoffs, teams tend to slow it down and play more intentionally on both ends of the floor. Postseason games can be like a chess match, whereas regular-season games often rely more on sheer athleticism.
Teams also play better defense in the playoffs, and they play their stars and core rotation for longer minutes. All these factors can contribute to the over/under totals being lower than the regular season, when players are playing a little more loosely and points are flowing more freely.
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Rotations tighten in the playoffs
Rotations always tighten up in the playoffs, with coaches wanting to play their best players so that their teams avoid elimination and advance to the next round. Success for coaches, teams and even stars is often measured by playoff performance, so bench players often play minimal roles in the postseason.
With the fate of the whole season on the line, coaches turn to their studs to play big minutes. That means slower play, bigger stat lines from the starting five and better defense (most of the time). It can also lead to fatigue, injury or foul trouble, all of which bettors must monitor from game to game.
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Defensive intensity and matchup adjustments
Playoff basketball often drives up the defensive intensity and strategic game-planning. It's also an imperative time for coaches to make key in-game and game-to-game adjustments with matchups and defensive sets.
Each win is of significant importance in the postseason, while wins and losses are far less meaningful in the regular-season campaign. As such, teams prepare for opponents far more in the playoffs.
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How sportsbooks adjust lines in the postseason
Just like the coaches and players are more sharp during the postseason, oddsmakers and bettors react to new information more sharply during the playoffs. Sportsbooks consider a plethora of variables when setting and adjusting lines, with the core mission of mitigating risk and keeping liabilities low.
Sportsbooks adjust lines based on a combination of betting action, player information, team dynamics and statistical analysis. The stakes are much higher and the matchups are more consistent in a series format, so books must be on their game with making accurate lines and setting the odds appropriately.
As always, betting volume and market influence play a large part in line adjustments. The book always wants to balance the risk by ensuring the betting action is as even on both sides as possible. When one side starts commanding more action, the book will shift the lines to balance it out.
Sharp money also plays a big part in postseason line adjustment. If savvy and pro bettors start putting a ton of money on one result, the books might adjust the lines to avoid getting killed by those big bets. Sharp money often has more influence on books than the public.
Injuries, rest, fatigue and home-court advantage all play a part in postseason line adjustments, just as they do in the regular season. Momentum can be important, as well, in addition to certain players proving they have the "clutch gene." Books will also set lines in anticipation of how the public will bet, luring casual bettors into making certain wagers.
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Strategies for betting NBA Playoffs vs. Regular season
Here are some actionable strategies for bettors to consider employing in the NBA Playoffs.
- Target series outcomes: The series moneyline often yields better odds than the game-by-game moneylines, so be sure to look into how each team's odds have been set. There could be value there!
- Identify potential upsets: How has each team performed recently? In many cases, the road team comes in hotter than the home team and mounts early-round upsets. These can pay big money if you get them right.
- Research the matchups: How did these teams played each other in the regular season? Which team and players have enjoyed more playoff success in the past? You can never do enough research when making bets.
- Bet on game totals: Consider betting unders in the playoffs, as the game often tightens up in the postseason. Casual bettors always bet the over, especially in standalone games, but the value is typically on the under in big games.
- Adjust for modern pace: Even the high-flying Tyrese Haliburton Pacers slow down in the playoffs. Understand that teams tighten up and get more intentional from possession to possession in the postseason, therefore the scoring goes down and so do the over/under totals.
- Exploit series trends: Pay attention to coaching adjustments, rotation changes, and shifting defensive strategies. These can sway games and series, so it's imperative to monitor the action closely throughout each game and series.
Here are some specific betting opportunities to watch for during the NBA Playoffs:
- Teams coming off a Game 7: Teams that just survived a grueling seven-game series often get mentally and physically fatigued. This can create an opportunity to bet their opponent in Game 1 of the next round.
- Teams that lost the previous game: Some bettors employ the zig-zag theory, which suggests that teams who lost the previous game yield better value. This is because sportsbooks often undervalue teams coming off playoff losses. Of course, in the early rounds, you might want to pump the brakes on betting underdogs who just got smoked.
- Moneyline underdogs: If you anticipate an upset, go all the way and bet the moneyline so you get better odds and a bigger payout. Betting the underdog's spread only yields a minimal return.
- Slight road underdogs: Teams favored at home by only a couple points can be red-flag squads. In these instances, you might want to target the road 'dog as they could mount a modest upset and pay you off.
- Heavy road favorites: Road favorites of at least 4.5 points have historically performed well. If a book trusts a team on the road, that team is probably in pretty good shape to win the game and the series.
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Popular sportsbooks that may be available in your area
Even if sports betting is legal in your state, not all sportsbooks may be available to you. Here are some of the most popular options to look into: