JUMP TO:
- What are NBA player props?
- Types of NBA player prop bets
- How sportsbooks set prop lines
- Factors that influence NBA player props
- Beginner tips for betting NBA player props
- Pros and cons of player prop betting
NBA betting has grown exponentially since the United States first repealed its federal sports betting ban in 2018 and states began legalizing sportsbooks. There are so many different kinds of wagers for new bettors to learn, and NBA player props are one of the most popular.
So, what are player props? And what do new bettors need to know in order to begin wagering on props?
Keep reading to learn everything you need to know about NBA player props, including some tips on how to pinpoint value and become a winning prop bettor.
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What are NBA player props?
NBA player props are bets that involve the performance of an individual player in a specific game, rather than on the overall winner, loser or total score of the game. Sportsbooks list projected statistical totals for players, and bettors wager on whether the player's stats will go over or under that line.
Books also sometimes list yes/no propositions for players, like "Will Nikola Jokic record a triple-double?" Similarly to picking the over or under on the aforementioned props, bettors would need to pick between "yes" (Jokic records a triple-double) or "no" (no Jokic triple-double).
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Types of NBA player prop bets
Here are some of the most popular NBA player prop bets available to bettors.
Points
As you might have guessed, scoring is the most popular player prop in NBA betting. Fans and bettors alike love rooting for players to score and reach certain points milestones, so the OVER on points bets tends to be the most popular single player prop bet.
Oftentimes, a player's points total sees so many OVER bets that sportsbooks raise the player's projected points total in order to even out the betting a bit. That's called risk mitigation, when the book lowers its liability with a certain bet. For these reasons, sharp bettors often capitalize on the UNDER bets for the most popular players' points total props.
Rebounds
Rebounding props might be a bit less exciting than scoring props, but they can actually be quite profitable if you become good at finding value on the prop market. Many of the NBA's top rebounders, including Domantas Sabonis and Nikola Jokic, are as consistent as they come in terms of amassing big board stats.
Rebound props for guards can often yield value, too, as the books will often set lower amounts on non-bigs who don't tally larger rebound numbers and therefore generate less betting action. It's a good idea to take a look at the opposing teams' rebounding stats before locking in a player prop involving rebounds.
Assists
Like points and rebounds over/unders, assists see plenty of betting action in NBA betting. Many point guards like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are as consistent as they come when it comes to passing, and assist props will often see less juice or vig because they're not as popular to bet as the points totals. Consider opposing defenses, usage levels and pace of play when betting assists.
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Combos
Many player prop bets involve combinations of stats, which can also be over/under props or yes/no propositions. Here are a few examples:
PRA (Points, Rebounds, and Assists)
A popular combo prop, PRA combines the projected totals for a player's points, rebounds and assists into a single over/under line. This is ideal for versatile, all-around players like Nikola Jokic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Luka Doncic.
Double-Double or Triple-Double
For an assist-dominant player like Tyrese Haliburton or a rebound-dominant player like Domantas Sabonis, a sportsbook may offer a "Yes/No" prop on whether they will record a double-double (e.g., 10+ assists and 10+ points or 10+ rebounds and 10+ points) or a triple-double (10+ in points, assists and rebounds).
Alternative lines
Popular with sharps, alternative lines offer different stat lines for players. For example, instead of betting Giannis Antetokounmpo over 9.5 rebounds, you could take a lower line like over 7.5 for a smaller winning payout or a greater line like over 11.5 boards for a considerably higher winning payout.
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How sportsbooks set prop lines
A variety of factors go into sportsbooks' prop betting lines. Oddsmakers follow a combination of (a) sophisticated statistical modeling, (b) analysis of breaking news, and (c) the latest betting action.
Odds do not simply reflect the sportsbooks' statistical projections, but rather the amount that will give the book the greatest chance of winning or at least not taking on too much liability. The core mission of the books every time: guarantee a profit.
Factors that influence NBA player props
Sportsbooks consider a number of different factors when setting lines, as they turn statistical projections into a science by analyzing trends. Here are some key variables considered every time a prop betting line gets set.
Pace
Pace is how fast or how slow a player's offense has been moving in games. Players like the Pacers' Tyrese Haliburton operate much quicker offenses and therefore rack up more counting stats like points, assists and three-pointers.
Defense
The opposing defense always plays a role in the player prop projections. Oddsmakers run models and algorithms based on team defenses' past and recent form to determine accurate stat projections for each player. Statistical metrics like Defensive Rating come into play for such models.
Usage rate
Players' individual usage rates and other advanced stats like Player Efficiency Rating come into play, as well. The usage rate shows how often that player is involved in an offensive play as a shot-taker or shot-creator. It can display a players' expected stats as opposed to their actual stats, which helps books anticipate potential positive or negative regression.
Injuries or rest
Injuries obviously always play a role in bookmakers' projections. If a player is questionable or day-to-day, his line might be lower ahead of his next game. If he's just returning from an injury, he might be off the board entirely so the books can avoid potentially taking big losses on the under in case he's on load management/minutes restrictions. Similarly, the "next man up" on a team might see increased over/under projections when his star-player teammate is due to miss time.
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Beginner tips for betting NBA player props
- Do the research and find an edge: If you don't uncover stats, metrics and advanced data, you're probably not quite ready to be a winning player prop bettor. Successful prop betting requires diligent research and finding edges and angles by uncovering betting value. Check the matchup data, past results, recent stats, injury reports, roster updates and more. If you're just betting the big names, you're destined to fail.
- Shop around for the best odds: Like with moneyline, spread and over/under betting, long-term success in the player prop market hinges largely on your ability to find the best odds for each prop. That means line-shopping across multiple sportsbooks and getting the most potential bang for your buck each and every time.
- Think like an oddsmaker: The sportsbooks set lines based on how they think the public will bet a certain prop. Start anticipating what a player's line might be, then log onto the books and see how they're actually set. This is a good activity to develop your ability to target value.
- Manage your bankroll: Many seasoned bettors recommend wagering only 1–2 percent of your total bankroll on each prop bet to manage risk. Stay consistent and don't ever let yourself get carried away with props. Don't chase losses or bet impulsively.
- Consider alternate totals: A way to lower your risk is to target alternate totals, buying points, one way or the other, to make for an easier over or under to hit. Of course, buying points means lowering your potential payout amount, but you could piece together a couple different alt. Props in a mini-parlay to adjust your odds but still have a very winnable overall bet. Example: Devin Booker's over/under is 27.5 points and Jalen Green's is 23.5 (both -110). You could trim Book's to 25+ and Green's to 20+, parlay those two alt. Props together and end up with -110 odds on the combo-bet. Just don't put too many legs together — books love making profits off lotto-ticket parlays!
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Pros and cons of player prop betting
Before we conclude, let's first consider the pros and cons to player prop betting.
Pros to player prop betting
- Good value betting opportunities: Savvy bettors can often uncover strong betting value more easily on the player prop market. Oddsmakers spend far more time projecting the game and total odds than they do on player props, meaning there can be more opportunities for bettors to capitalize on market inefficiencies like mispriced or inaccurate projected stat lines.
- More fun to root for a single player: Following the statistical performances of specific players you've bet on can make games more engaging, entertaining and exciting, even when the overall game itself has proven to be a bit of a disappointment.
- Doesn't rely on game outcome: Your player prop bet can still win even if that player's team loses. A star player on a bad team can hit just as many over props as the best player on the top team in the NBA.
- Relates to fantasy sports: Bettors can draw on their fantasy sports prowess with player prop betting, as it similarly involves predicting, projecting and live-tracking individual player stats.
Cons of player prop betting
- Susceptible to outside factors and variables: Individual player performances can be significantly impacted by unforeseen events, such as in-game injuries, coaches' decisions, substitutions, teammates' mistakes, or changes in momentum and game flow. Many times, a bet can be ruined by a single play or decision. These are called bad beats.
- Higher vigs: Sportsbooks often charge a higher commission rate — the vig or juice — on prop bets. This can make long-term prosperity through player props more difficult.
- Lower betting limits: Because books don't always spend as much time and effort setting player prop lines, they often lower the betting limits (the maximum amount you can bet on them). This can restrict the potential winnings for successful bettors and affect their bottom line.
- Time and effort of researching: Knowledge of the sport helps, but advanced research is also imperative to player prop betting success. It can take a lot of time and energy to do it the right way, which makes it not worth the effort for the majority of casual bettors.
- Integrity concerns: There have been cases in the past in which players were guilty or accused of manipulating their individual performance to profit off the player prop market. A high-profile NBA incident involving former Raptors player Jontay Porter led to a lifetime ban from the league for tanking his performance to win prop bets. While rare, this type of situation makes many bettors weary of betting individual players' props.
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Popular sportsbooks that may be available in your area
Even if sports betting is legal in your state, not all sportsbooks may be available to you. Here are some of the most popular options to look into: