There are only three games on Thursday for our NBA player props. We explain the best bets for the following matchups:
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers, 7 p.m. ET
- Pacers vs. Suns, 9 p.m. ET
- Hawks vs. Jazz, 9 p.m. ET
NBA Player Props and Betting Odds
There are NBA betting bonuses available on DraftKings, bet365 and FanDuel for these picks.
| NBA Player Props | Odds |
| Evan Mobley 20+ Points | -111 on DraftKings |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker Over 3.5 First Quarter Points | -115 on bet365 |
| Dyson Daniels 8+ Assists | +128 on FanDuel |
Mobley Shows Out vs. Raptors
The Cavaliers are technically on the second half of a back-to-back, but they rested Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley and Darius Garland yesterday, so the guess here is that those guys play tonight. Assuming Mobley does play, this is a good matchup for him against the Raptors.
For starters, he has hit this in six of 11 games this season, averaging 20 points per game, so the line itself is right along his average. The Raptors, meanwhile, have allowed the fourth-most points per game to power forward, and allow the third-most points per game in the restricted area, which is where Mobley scores over 40% of his points.
If you look at games this year in which he has played against teams in the bottom half of guarding the restricted area, he has gone over 20 points in five of seven games, averaging 21.6 points per game in those games. One game was against this Raptors team with 29 points. Granted, Donovan Mitchell did not play in that game, so maybe he doesn't go off for 29, but instead scores 23 and still goes over for us.
Alexander-Walker Gets Started Early
This is a situation where the first quarter market has a ton more value than his full game prop. For context, he has hit his main line point prop (17.5) in 5/10 games, averaging 17 points per game. This first quarter line of 3.5, however, he has gone over in 9/10 games, and he averages about 5 points per game in the first quarter.
The matchup is some good, some average against the Jazz, with the biggest advantage being the catch-and-shoot (CnS) opportunities against the Jazz. The Jazz allow the second-most CnS 3-pointers in the NBA, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker takes the most of these shots on the Hawks.
That said, his 3-point prop is not worth it in this game because it's priced at 2.5 and he is a 1.5 kind of guy. The play-types are mostly average, with his biggest advantage being the spot up, which is where a quarter of his points come from, and the Jazz allow the 9th-most spot up points in the NBA. That said, Alexander-Walker scores the most spot up points on the Hawks as well. He gets two buckets in the first tonight.
Daniels Dimes Up Jazz
This one is a little risky and he has hit in four-straight, but the matchup is close to as good as it gets against the Jazz. The Jazz have been an assist team forever, as they have allowed the fourth-most assists overall, and the sixth-most specifically to point guards. With Trae Young out, Dyson Daniels has led the Hawks in both passes made, assists, and potential assists. So, he has become the de-facto point guard for the Hawks.
There is also a chance that Jalen Johnson is going to miss this game, as he has sat out both games that were the second half of a back-to-back, which is the case today. It has only been one game so a tiny sample size, but Daniels has played in one game this year without both Trae Young and JJ in the lineup, and he had 13 assists on 24 potential assists in that game.
There is a chance that he has ladder potential to 10 in this spot, but we'll play it safe with him getting eight tonight.