- Fade the public; trends favor the underdog Jazz covering +9.5.
- The Bulls hold a three-game winning streak over the visiting 76ers.
- Major injuries to Giannis Antetokounmpo and Ja Morant cloud the betting landscape.
Welcome to a compelling Christmas weekend of NBA action, featuring a fascinating mix of matchups for bettors seeking holiday value.
NBA Odds & Picks for December 26
The evening showcases a powerhouse road favorite as the surging Detroit Pistons (24-6) travel to face the rebuilding Utah Jazz (10-19). In a pivotal Eastern Conference clash, the Philadelphia 76ers (16-12) visit the Chicago Bulls (14-15), with both teams hovering around.500 and looking to gain ground in the playoff race. The slate also presents a battle between two underperforming squads desperate for momentum, as the Milwaukee Bucks (12-18) take on the Memphis Grizzlies (14-16).
With the first game tipping off at 6:30 PM CST and extending through the evening, this analysis will dissect the essential statistics, betting trends, and key player matchups to help you identify profitable angles. We'll explore team dynamics and individual performances while examining how public sentiment aligns with sharp money movement across tonight's three-game card.
New users can claim the linked BetMGM bonus code to win $150 in bonus bets or score a $1,500 first bet.
Key Games & Betting Angles
Detroit Pistons (24-6) @ Utah Jazz (10-19)
Moneyline: DET -455 / UTA +340
Spread: DET -9.5 (-115)
Total: 243.5 (O -115 / U -105)
The Pistons enter as commanding road favorites, with the betting public overwhelmingly backing their dominance. A staggering 88.5% of all moneyline bets and 85.3% of the total stake are flowing toward Detroit to win outright. Win probability models align with this sentiment, assigning the Pistons a 79.9% chance of victory. This public confidence stems from Detroit's exceptional form, posting an impressive 17-3 record following wins in their last 20 opportunities.
However, deeper analysis reveals potential value with the home underdog. While the Pistons boast elite talent, they've struggled to reward road bettors recently, managing just a 1-4 against the spread record over their last five away contests. Conversely, Utah has demonstrated resilience against the number, covering in three of their last four games as an underdog. The Jazz will lean heavily on Lauri Markkanen, who's been explosive at home with 30.2 points per game in Salt Lake City. He faces a stern test against Detroit's balanced attack led by Cade Cunningham, who's averaging 26.7 points and 9.1 assists in road games.
The total has seen notable reverse line movement, dropping from an opening of 245.5 to the current 243.5 despite public money leaning over. This shift aligns with a powerful Detroit trend: the under has cashed in their last six road games following a victory.
Milwaukee Bucks (12-18) @ Memphis Grizzlies (14-16)
Moneyline: MEM -222 / MIL +180
Spread: MEM -5.5 (-110)
Total: 227.5 (O -115 / U -105)
This clash of disappointing teams sees Memphis installed as solid home favorites, with bettors gravitating toward the Grizzlies. The home team is attracting 73.6% of moneyline action and 61.0% of spread bets, earning a 66% win probability from the models. However, Memphis faces a concerning situational trend, posting just a 1-6 record at home following wins in their last seven such spots.
Milwaukee's betting value appears limited based on their woeful spread performance. The Bucks have managed only a 2-9 ATS mark against teams with losing records over their last 11 games and an even more troubling 2-10 ATS record on the road in their last 12 attempts. The absence of Giannis Antetokounmpo significantly hampers their chances, removing a player averaging 28.2 points and 11.2 rebounds in away games. Memphis counters with Ja Morant, though his questionable status and inconsistent home shooting (33.8% from the field) create uncertainty.
The most intriguing angle centers on the total, where 88.2% of bets and 90.5% of the stake target the OVER despite the over cashing in just one of Memphis' last four home contests.
Philadelphia 76ers (16-12) @ Chicago Bulls (14-15)
Moneyline: CHI -120 / PHI +100
Spread: CHI -1.5 (-105)
Total: 239.5 (O -110 / U -110)
The evening's most competitive matchup projects as a virtual pick'em, with the Bulls holding slight home favoritism. Betting markets reflect this uncertainty, with win probabilities sitting at 50.2% for Philadelphia and 49.8% for Chicago. Public sentiment narrowly favors the home team, placing 55.9% of moneyline bets and 57.1% of spread wagers on the Bulls.
Historical trends create compelling narratives on both sides. Chicago possesses recent psychological advantages, having won their last three consecutive games against Philadelphia. However, the 76ers have been exceptional as road favorites, boasting a perfect 6-0 ATS record in their last six such opportunities while winning all six outright. The offensive duel features Tyrese Maxey's explosive road scoring (32.0 points per game away from home) against Josh Giddey's versatile home production (20.3 PPG, 9.4 RPG, 8.9 APG at the United Center).
Totals bettors face conflicting signals: 69.1% of public action backs the OVER, yet the under has hit in each of Philadelphia's last four games as favorites.
NBA Odds Today: December 26 Odds
The betting markets for tonight's Christmas slate establish a clear hierarchy, ranging from a projected blowout in Utah to a razor-thin margin in Chicago. Current odds reflect these varying competitive levels across the three-game card.
Sign up to wager on NBA action with the DraftKings promo code to bet $5 and win a $200 bonus.
| Matchup | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia 76ers @ Chicago Bulls | CHI -1.5 | O/U 239.5 |
| Milwaukee Bucks @ Memphis Grizzlies | MEM -5.5 | O/U 227.5 |
| Detroit Pistons @ Utah Jazz | DET -9.5 | O/U 243.5 |
Expert NBA Picks & Predictions
After analyzing odds movement, situational trends, and key matchups, several value opportunities emerge from tonight's slate. Based on statistical data and betting market inefficiencies, here are our recommended plays for Christmas basketball.
Detroit Pistons @ Utah Jazz: Fade the Public, Back the Under
While Detroit's superior talent is undeniable, the betting value rests with the struggling home team and a lower-scoring affair. The Pistons have been poor road investments recently, posting a disappointing 1-4 ATS mark over their last five away games. The inflated 9.5-point spread provides substantial cushion for a Utah squad that's been surprisingly competitive against the number, covering in three of their last four underdog spots.
The under presents even stronger value based on a dominant trend pattern. Unders are a perfect 6-0 in Detroit's last six road games following victories, a situational angle that's been remarkably consistent. Combined with the two-point reverse line movement from sharp action, this suggests professional money expects pace and efficiency issues that won't support the 243.5 total.
The Pick: Utah Jazz +9.5 (-105)
The Pick: Under 243.5 (-105)
Philadelphia 76ers @ Chicago Bulls: Back Recent History
In a game projected as a virtual coin flip, we're siding with Chicago's recent dominance in this head-to-head matchup. The Bulls have captured their last three consecutive games against Philadelphia, establishing psychological momentum that provides tangible value in a tight spread market. While the 76ers have been excellent as road favorites, Chicago's 3-1 record in their last four games following wins indicates strong form at home.
With a spread of just -1.5, this essentially becomes a moneyline play on the home team. Given the Bulls' head-to-head success and United Center advantage, plus potential Joel Embiid uncertainty, backing Chicago represents solid value in a pick'em scenario.
The Pick: Chicago Bulls -1.5 (-105)