The Christmas Day NBA slate delivers a collection of marquee matchups featuring the league's most dynamic stars. The Golden State Warriors host the Dallas Mavericks in what promises to be a high-scoring affair, with Stephen Curry looking to exploit a depleted Dallas defense. Meanwhile, the Oklahoma City Thunder welcome the San Antonio Spurs in a must-see battle of young talent, headlined by the intriguing big man duel between Chet Holmgren and Victor Wembanyama.
NBA Christmas Day Player Props and Best Bets
The Eastern Conference serves up its own compelling storylines as the New York Knicks face the Cleveland Cavaliers. Jalen Brunson will orchestrate the Knicks' offense against a formidable Cavaliers backcourt led by Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland. With Evan Mobley sidelined for Cleveland, frontcourt battles will take center stage throughout tonight's action.
These individual matchups create prime opportunities for savvy prop bettors. We've dissected the lines, analyzed the trends, and identified the strongest value plays across every team in action. Read on as we break down the single best player prop bet for each squad taking the court tonight.
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Top NBA Player Props for Christmas Day
The player prop market is loaded with value tonight as stars face favorable matchups and depleted defenses. From elite scorers to dominant rebounders, we've identified the most compelling betting opportunity for every team in action.
| Team | Opponent | Player | Best Bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Mavericks | GSW | Anthony Davis | Over 11.5 Rebounds (-110 at DraftKings) |
| Golden State Warriors | DAL | Stephen Curry | Over 4.5 3-Pointers (+120 at FanDuel) |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | SAS | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Over 31.5 Points (-130 at FanDuel) |
| San Antonio Spurs | OKC | Victor Wembanyama | Over 8.5 Rebounds (-137 at DraftKings) |
| New York Knicks | CLE | Jalen Brunson | Over 6.5 Assists (-136 at FanDuel) |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | NYK | Jarrett Allen | Over 8.5 Rebounds (-128 at FanDuel) |
Premium Prop Selections
After breaking down all available markets, three bets rise above the rest as our most confident plays for tonight's action:
Stephen Curry (GSW) — Over 4.5 Made 3-Pointers (+120 at FanDuel)
Finding plus-money on Curry's three-point prowess at Chase Center represents exceptional value. While his scoring total sits at a hefty 28.7 points, the real opportunity lies in his perimeter volume. Dallas arrives shorthanded in the frontcourt, likely forcing them into smaller lineups that struggle to contest Curry's range. The Warriors' spacing-heavy system should generate numerous clean looks from beyond the arc, and at +120, the potential return makes this an attractive wager on basketball's greatest shooter.
Jarrett Allen (CLE) — Over 8.5 Rebounds (-128 at FanDuel)
Allen's rebounding prop gains significant appeal with Evan Mobley unavailable. As Cleveland's primary interior presence, Allen will shoulder the majority of the glass-cleaning responsibility against a physical Knicks frontcourt. New York's halfcourt offense generates plenty of rebounding opportunities, and Allen's positioning as the Cavaliers' lone rim protector makes 8.5 boards an achievable target. His role expansion in Mobley's absence creates clear paths to value.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC) — Over 31.5 Points (-130 at FanDuel)
SGA enters this matchup riding elite scoring form and facing a Spurs defense that can be exploited in transition. His mid-range mastery and ability to get to the rim consistently make him a matchup nightmare for San Antonio's young defenders. With the Thunder's fast-paced offense likely to generate extra possessions, Gilgeous-Alexander's usage rate should remain elevated throughout this Western Conference showdown.
Game-by-Game Prop Analysis
Breaking down each matchup reveals the strategic advantages and situational factors driving our top prop selections for tonight's slate.
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Dallas Mavericks vs. Golden State Warriors
- Dallas Mavericks: Anthony Davis Over 11.5 Rebounds (-110)
With the Mavericks' supporting cast compromised by injuries, Davis will need to shoulder a heavier offensive load against Golden State's up-tempo system. The Warriors' defensive struggles, and lack of size, should provide ample scoring opportunities for Dallas's big man to pound the boards and rack up the rebounds. - Golden State Warriors: Stephen Curry Over 4.5 3-Pointers (+120)
The plus-money odds on Curry's three-point total represent clear market inefficiency. Dallas's injury-depleted frontcourt will struggle to rotate effectively on defense, creating the clean looks Curry needs to heat up from deep. Golden State's ball movement and spacing should generate high-quality attempts, making this line beatable for a shooter of Curry's caliber operating on his home court.
San Antonio Spurs vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
- San Antonio Spurs: Victor Wembanyama Over 8.5 Rebounds (-137)
Wembanyama's rebounding total is appealing. Even with Oklahoma City's frontcourt intact, the young Frenchman's length and positioning give him natural advantages on the glass. Wembanyama's length and positioning increase his opportunities for defensive boards while his offensive rebounding creates second-chance scoring situations. - Oklahoma City Thunder: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 31.5 Points (-130)
SGA's scoring prowess should flourish against San Antonio's developing defense. His ability to attack both in transition and halfcourt sets creates multiple avenues to pile up points. The Thunder's pace and ball movement will generate clean looks for their primary scorer, while his three-point shooting adds another dimension to his offensive arsenal in this Western Conference battle.
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. New York Knicks
- Cleveland Cavaliers: Jarrett Allen Over 8.5 Rebounds (-128)
Without Mobley's presence, Allen becomes Cleveland's undisputed glass-cleaner against New York's physical frontcourt. New York's halfcourt offense generates plenty of rebounding opportunities, creating additional opportunities for Allen to accumulate boards. His expanded role in the absence of his frontcourt partner makes this rebounding total highly achievable. - New York Knicks: Jalen Brunson Over 6.5 Assists (-136)
Brunson's playmaking responsibilities are central to the Knicks' offense. The Knicks' offensive system runs through his decision-making. His court vision and passing accuracy should generate enough assist opportunities to surpass this modest total, especially if New York maintains their balanced offensive attack throughout the game.Chet Holmgren (C-F, OKC) - Questionable (Face): The Thunder's unicorn big man carries a questionable tag after missing recent action.