- Sharp money drives major line movements despite heavy public action on underdogs
- Thunder host Spurs in Western Conference clash of 26-4 vs 22-7 records
- Holiday slate features compelling home favorites with significant betting value
Christmas Day delivers a spectacular NBA betting landscape featuring three marquee matchups that showcase contrasting narratives between public sentiment and professional money. The holiday slate begins at 12:00 PM EST and extends throughout the afternoon, offering bettors multiple opportunities to capitalize on line discrepancies.
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Today's NBA Christmas Odds Breakdown
| Matchup | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Cavaliers @ New York Knicks | NYK -6.5 | O/U 239.5 |
| San Antonio Spurs @ Oklahoma City Thunder | OKC -9.5 | O/U 235.5 |
| Dallas Mavericks @ Golden State Warriors | GSW -8.5 | O/U 227.5 |
Odds as of December 24, 2025, from MGM.
The Christmas Day betting board demonstrates strong confidence in home court advantage, with all three favorites laying significant points. The totals suggest offensive fireworks, particularly in the Knicks-Cavaliers clash, which carries the slate's highest projection at 239.5 points.
Key Christmas Day Matchups & Betting Analysis
Cleveland Cavaliers @ New York Knicks
This Eastern Conference showdown presents a fascinating study in contrasting styles at Madison Square Garden. The Knicks have transformed their home court into a fortress, powered by the exceptional play of Jalen Brunson, who torches opposing defenses for 27.9 points and 6.8 assists per contest at home. His partnership with Karl-Anthony Towns creates a devastating inside-outside combination, as Towns dominates the paint with 21.6 points and 11.5 rebounds in home games.
Cleveland counters with their own offensive weaponry, led by Donovan Mitchell's explosive road performances. The dynamic guard elevates his game away from home, pouring in 31.8 points per contest and providing the scoring punch necessary to challenge elite opponents on hostile courts.
- Moneyline: NYK -238 | CLE +195
- Spread: NYK -6.5 (-105) | CLE +6.5 (-115)
- Total: 239.5 (Over -110 / Under -110)
San Antonio Spurs @ Oklahoma City Thunder
The marquee attraction features two Western Conference titans in what could preview a potential playoff series. Oklahoma City's home dominance centers around MVP candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who has been virtually unstoppable at Paycom Center, averaging a staggering 32.6 points, 6.8 assists, and 1.8 steals per game. Chet Holmgren provides the perfect complement, contributing 18.4 points and 7.7 rebounds while anchoring the defense.
San Antonio brings their own superstar duo to challenge the Thunder's supremacy. Victor Wembanyama has been magnificent on the road, posting 25.0 points, 11.3 rebounds, and 3.7 blocks per contest, while De'Aaron Fox adds consistent production with 22.6 points and 6.4 assists away from home.
- Moneyline: OKC -385 | SAS +290
- Spread: OKC -9.5 (-105) | SAS +9.5 (-115)
- Total: 235.5 (Over -110 / Under -110)
Dallas Mavericks @ Golden State Warriors
The Warriors defend their home court against a Mavericks team searching for consistency in a challenging season. Golden State's offensive attack revolves around Stephen Curry's lethal three-point shooting, as the future Hall of Famer averages 28.1 points while connecting on 39.0% of his attempts from beyond the arc at home. The addition of Jimmy Butler III has provided another scoring dimension, as he contributes 18.1 points and 4.9 assists per home contest.
Dallas relies heavily on Anthony Davis's interior presence, as the big man delivers 21.0 points and 11.6 rebounds on the road. Rookie sensation Cooper Flagg has emerged as a reliable scoring option, averaging 19.4 points per game in away contests and providing youth and athleticism to the Mavericks' attack.
- Moneyline: GSW -357 | DAL +275
- Spread: GSW -8.5 (-102) | DAL +8.5 (-118)
- Total: 227.5 (Over -115 / Under -105)
NBA Christmas Day Best Bets & Predictions
After comprehensive analysis of line movements, situational trends, and team dynamics, several compelling betting opportunities emerge from today's holiday slate. The market inefficiencies created by public-versus-sharp money discrepancies provide clear value plays for disciplined bettors.
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New York Knicks -6.5 (-105) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
The day's strongest betting angle centers on following the sharp money at Madison Square Garden. While recreational bettors heavily favor Cleveland's chances to cover the generous spread, the dramatic four-point line movement tells a different story entirely.
New York's home court dominance provides the foundation for this play. The Knicks have been exceptionally profitable as home favorites this season, posting an impressive 8-3 against the spread when favored by three or more points at Madison Square Garden. This 72.7% success rate demonstrates their ability to handle expectations and deliver decisive victories on their home floor.
The reverse line movement from -2.5 to -6.5 represents one of the most significant sharp money indicators of the entire season. Professional bettors have clearly identified value in laying the points with New York, forcing sportsbooks to adjust their numbers against overwhelming public sentiment. This classic fade-the-public scenario aligns perfectly with the Knicks' proven home dominance.
The Pick: New York Knicks -6.5 (-105)
Spurs vs. Thunder: Over 235.5 (-110)
The Western Conference showdown presents an excellent opportunity to target the total in what projects as a high-octane offensive showcase. The line's dramatic movement from 228.5 to 235.5 signals strong professional money backing the Over, creating alignment between sharp action and fundamental analysis.
Oklahoma City's offensive explosion against quality competition provides the statistical foundation for this play. The Over has cashed in 9 of 13 Thunder games (69.2%) this season when facing opponents with winning records, as elevated competition forces both teams to maximize their offensive execution. Against teams above.500, the Thunder average 118.4 points per game while allowing 111.2, creating the pace and scoring necessary for high totals.
San Antonio's presence as a legitimate contender adds another layer of support for offensive fireworks. When both teams enter with championship aspirations, the intensity and execution typically reach playoff levels, leading to efficient offense and track-meet atmospheres. The Spurs' ability to match Oklahoma City's pace through their dynamic backcourt ensures this game won't bog down in halfcourt execution.
The Pick: Over 235.5 (-110)
Strong Lean: Golden State Warriors -8.5 (-102)
While not reaching our primary recommendation threshold, the Warriors present compelling value as another reverse line movement candidate. The four-point spread increase from -4.5 to -8.5 directly contradicts public sentiment, with 70.2% of bets supporting Dallas +8.5.
Golden State's home court advantage becomes magnified when facing struggling opponents. The Warriors are 6-2 ATS (75%) as home favorites of 7+ points this season, demonstrating their ability to handle large spreads against inferior competition. Curry's three-point volume at home creates the explosive potential necessary for blowout victories, while Butler's addition provides defensive versatility that limits opposing offensive options.