JUMP TO:
- Why beginners struggle with NBA betting
- Mistake #1: Chasing overs because of high scoring
- Mistake #2: Ignoring rest days and back-to-backs
- Mistake #3: Betting without checking injuries or load management
- Mistake #4: Overvaluing home-court advantage
- Mistake #5: Chasing losses and emotional betting
- How to fix these mistakes and bet smarter
Tens of millions of Americans bet on basketball each year, but only a small percentage of NBA bettors see long-term profits.
New bettors often go into their betting journeys thinking they will succeed because they have a vast knowledge of the league and the game. However, being a savvy bettor requires far more than hoop IQ or knowing the teams and players.
Keep reading to see some of the most common mistakes committed by new NBA bettors and how you can avoid errors and enjoy a lucrative betting career.
MORE: Complete guide to betting the NBA
Why beginners struggle with NBA betting
A number of factors go into why new bettors tend to struggle with NBA wagering. Lack of familiarity with sportsbooks and odds obviously stands out as a main reason, but not paying attention to the little details and the games within the game can also have a costly effect on your bankroll.
Let's dive deeper into the most common issues new NBA bettors face, highlighting the five big mistakes you want to avoid making on your betting journey.
MORE: What to know about betting on NBA player props
Mistake #1: Chasing overs because of high scoring
Chances are, if you notice that a team or player has been scoring a ton of points in recent games, the sportsbooks have noticed as well. Oddsmakers and sportsbooks analyze stats, data and trends for a living, and their core objective is to set lines in anticipation of how you and millions of other bettors will wager. In short, they know how you'll bet before you even do.
When a team or player has high scoring totals for a few games in a row, their over/under projections tend to rise. That's because most of the casual betting public reacts to recent trends like sheep, smashing the over even if the number has risen to a level that no longer yields strong betting value. The books might even raise the number even higher if the majority of bettors continue betting on the over.
Understand that on a game-to-game basis, and even on a quarter-by-quarter basis, high-scoring performances lead to high-value under opportunities. The path less traveled, the under, has made more sharp bettors money than overs have throughout the years. When they go high, consider going low or just avoiding the over/under total entirely.
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Mistake #2: Ignoring rest days and back-to-backs
Knowing the league and the players is one thing, but knowing who's expected to possibly rest and who tends to sit on back-to-back games is just as vital.
Monitor trends throughout the season. Take a look at how often certain players sit on the tail-end of back-to-backs. Check out how often a player sits when he's listed as day-to-day or questionable. Paying close attention to these little details can be the difference between boosting your bankroll and busting out.
MORE: The dos and don'ts of bankroll management in sports betting
Mistake #3: Betting without checking injuries or load management
The NBA experiences myriad injuries each year, and load management has become as big a part of the game as the full-court press. If you can't anticipate who's potentially out, you can't fully project a game.
Star players being sidelined or rested for load management can cause significant swings in the odds. Thus, it's imperative for you to be able to anticipate these absences as well as you can so you can stay one step ahead of the sportsbooks, and even get in value bets on opening lines before the players have even been declared out.
MORE: What is a betting unit?
Mistake #4: Overvaluing home-court advantage
Good teams win on the road every day in the NBA. Heck, even bad teams pull off road upsets in the regular season. If you put too much stock in home-court advantage, you will end up draining your bankroll. Not every squad is OKC or Cleveland — many playoff teams sit only a little over.500 at home on the season. Some even fare better on the road!
Always value head-to-head matchup data over home vs. Away. The books have already baked the home-court advantage into their odds and spreads, so you're not giving yourself a fighter's chance if you're just blindly betting on the home squad because the fans will be yelling for their teams. NBA players made it to this level because they perform well regardless of the environment — don't overvalue the venue and overlook other key variables.
MORE: Check out the ultimate sports betting checklist
Mistake #5: Chasing losses and emotional betting
This mistake is not limited to just NBA bettors. Chasing losses, or trying to dig yourself out of a recent hole and end a losing streak, is a cardinal sin in betting. If you're suddenly betting more loosely or impulsively, or you're making larger wagers than usual to make up for previous losses, take a step back and reevaluate your situation.
Emotional betting or tilt betting can be very costly to your bottom line, and problem gambling can have catastrophic effects on your quality of life. It's important to always have a plan and stick to it, to set limits on your sportsbooks, and to maintain a bankroll management system that works for you. Losing focus and going off the rails for even a day can cause irreversible damage.
MORE: Importance of line shopping in sports betting
How to fix these mistakes and bet smarter
Start small with your NBA betting, and develop your skills more and more with practice. Stay disciplined.
Consider your bankroll — the total amount of disposable money you feel comfortable losing to bets — and then set your unit size (a percentage of your total bankroll). Stick to a plan.
Do your research on both teams whenever considering a wager. Follow the news and injury reports. Uncover trends and learn how to anticipate lines and pinpoint values. Think like an oddsmaker.
Before you know it, if you follow all these good habits, you might just find yourself boosting your bankroll and falling under the category of sharp NBA bettor.
MORE: What to know about live betting the NBA
Popular sportsbooks that may be available in your area
Even if sports betting is legal in your state, not all sportsbooks may be available to you. Here are some of the most popular options to look into: