A compelling non-conference showdown awaits as the Navy Midshipmen travel to face the Cincinnati Bearcats on January 2, 2026. This matchup at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium presents a classic clash of offensive philosophies between two highly productive units that couldn't be more different in their approach to moving the football.
Navy vs Cincinnati Prediction and Picks
Both teams enter this contest averaging over 31 points per game, but their paths to success tell vastly different stories. The Bearcats, under Head Coach Scott Satterfield, have built a balanced attack that's generated 5,056 total yards this season. Their calling card is red zone efficiency, converting an exceptional 90.9% of their scoring opportunities inside the 20-yard line. Meanwhile, Head Coach Brian Newberry's Midshipmen are a ground game juggernaut, having rushed for an incredible 3,472 yards while showcasing remarkable discipline on third downs with a 51.0% conversion rate.
This strategic battle will test Cincinnati's explosive scoring ability against Navy's methodical, clock-controlling offensive machine that's built to wear down opponents over four quarters.
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Cincinnati vs Navy Betting Odds
- Moneyline: Navy -285 | Cincinnati +230
- Spread: Navy -7 (-115) | Cincinnati +7 (-105)
- Total (Over/Under): 54.5 (Over -116 / Under -104)
Betting odds courtesy of consensus odds.
The betting market has seen a dramatic shift in this matchup, with Navy emerging as a 7-point favorite after Cincinnati initially opened as the preferred team. The Bearcats have moved from -238 moneyline favorites to +230 underdogs, indicating significant market sentiment swinging toward the Midshipmen's triple-option attack.
Game Information:
- Date: Friday, January 2, 2026
- Kickoff: 4:30 PM EST
- Venue: Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
- Location: Memphis, Tennessee
Statistical Breakdown: Two Offenses, Different Philosophies
The numbers reveal just how evenly matched these teams are in production, with Cincinnati averaging 421.3 yards per game and Navy right behind at 421.2. The Bearcats edge out the Midshipmen in scoring by less than a point per game (31.8 to 31.0), setting up what should be a tightly contested affair.
Where these teams diverge dramatically is in their offensive identity. Cincinnati operates a balanced attack with 2,909 passing yards and 2,147 rushing yards this season. Navy, conversely, has built their success around a relentless ground game, accumulating 3,472 rushing yards while throwing for just 1,582 yards through their triple-option system.
The key battleground will be Cincinnati's red zone excellence against Navy's ability to sustain drives. While the Bearcats convert 90.9% of their red zone trips into scores, the Midshipmen's 51.0% third-down conversion rate allows them to control possession and limit opponents' opportunities.
Defensively, Navy has shown more disruptive ability with 13 takeaways (6 interceptions, 7 fumble recoveries) and 26.0 sacks compared to Cincinnati's 7 takeaways (2 interceptions, 5 fumbles) and 22.0 sacks. The turnover battle looms large, especially considering Cincinnati's troubling -4 turnover differential against Navy's even 0.
Recent performances highlight the momentum each team carries into this contest. Navy's A. Tecza found the end zone twice in his last outing, while quarterback B. Horvath accounted for both rushing and passing touchdowns. For Cincinnati, quarterback B. Sorsby bounced back with two touchdown passes in their recent loss, showing resilience despite the defeat.
Navy vs Cincinnati Prediction: Midshipmen Control the Clock
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This fascinating clash of styles ultimately favors the team that can best impose its will through sustained execution. While Cincinnati possesses explosive offensive capabilities, Navy's methodical approach and superior ball control present significant advantages in this matchup.
The Midshipmen's exceptional third-down efficiency (51.0% conversion rate) will be the deciding factor, allowing them to dominate time of possession and limit Cincinnati's offensive opportunities. Navy's triple-option is perfectly designed to control game flow, keeping the Bearcats' balanced attack off the field for extended periods.
Cincinnati's -4 turnover differential is particularly concerning against a disciplined Navy squad that capitalizes on opponent mistakes. The Midshipmen's ability to generate 13 takeaways this season suggests they'll likely create additional possessions that could prove decisive in a close contest.
Expect Navy's ground game to gradually wear down Cincinnati's defense while controlling the pace from start to finish. The Midshipmen's patient approach and superior ball security should allow them to cover the 7-point spread comfortably.
Best Bet: Navy -7 (-115)