JUMP TO:
- What are MLB win total bets?
- Key factors that influence MLB Over/Under win projections
- Smart strategies for betting win totals
- Common mistakes bettors make with win totals
- Why timing and patience matter
- How to place win total bets on your sportsbook apps
One of the most profitable MLB futures bets, win total over/under bets, can be a game-changer for new bettors' bankrolls if approached the right way.
Preseason odds often yield strong value, allowing knowledgeable and well-researched bettors to capitalize.
Keep reading to learn more about MLB win total bets, some smart futures strategies to adopt, and some common win-total betting mistakes to avoid as you embark upon your baseball betting journey.
MORE: Betting terms glossary - common phrases in sports gambling to know
What are MLB win total bets?
Baseball win total bets are wagers on over/under projections set by oddsmakers and sportsbooks for MLB teams in the upcoming or current season.
MLB betting enthusiasts can wager on whether they think the team will finish over or under that projected win total.
Sportsbooks will commonly list each side of a win total with a juice of -110, but this can vary based on trading in order to encourage balanced wagering.
Key factors that influence MLB Over/Under win projections
Oddsmakers look at a variety of factors when setting win total projections for MLB futures, including:
- Offseason roster changes and construction
- Injuries
- Player projections (breakouts, regression from last season)
- Strength of schedule
- Divisional strength
- Manager and coaches
- Minor-league system, prospects-in-waiting
- Regional weather
Heed this warning about strength of schedule: Many outlets will base these ratings on the previous season's or otherwise past numbers overall. This does little to inform decisions based on predicting the future.
SOS ratings can be exploited if you fade predictions on a certain player, team, or division that do not reflect current conditions or account for significantly possible outcomes.
Smart strategies for betting win totals
Shop for the best MLB win total odds
Once you identify a team you want to target with your betting, compare the Over/Under total and the accompanying juice listed at every sportsbook for which you hold an account.
Bettors should always aim to optimize their return on investment, and rushing to place a bet at a single sportsbook could lead to leaving additional winnings on the table if the juice on the bet is more favorable elsewhere.
Think like betting traders
With an objective view, bettors can find value on the win total market by thinking about how sportsbooks set betting lines.
Anticipate lines and projections, and time your wagers well. Compare odds across sportsbooks and get the best bang for your buck. Try to avoid dumping too much money into superstar players or hyped-up teams. Always go for value, not the big names the rest of the crowd bets.
Find angles to fade
Also, while statistical trends don't always tell a story, consider that some may be usable if they contrast with popular narratives that are dictating market lines. For example, if a team has many candidates who could rebound, any dead-cat bounces in statistics could lead to a team-wide improvement.
Create your own projections
Do your best to project the records of at least the team you intend to bet, but if you can, calculate your projections or collect a wide sample of other predictions for records. Crowdsourcing information often leads to more informed, market-beating decisions.
Target Unders in overzealous markets
More often, fading the public and market leaders by selecting an Under on one of the top totals goes a long way.
Baseball seasons are long, and plenty of factors can play into why a top-ranked team wins fewer games than initially thought. Identifying teams with under-represented weak points -- including a tough division, overachievement in the previous season, and injury-prone stars -- can point you in clear directions of sound contrarian picks.
Common mistakes bettors make with win totals
The biggest mistakes bettors make — with props, win total bets, and even traditional moneyline and run-line betting — involves decisions blindly executed with bias or emotion. Don't bet like a fan — bet like an investor. You're not rooting a team on, you should be making an educated guess based on stats and data.
Don't overreact to spring training results or even early-season trends. Don't fall for hot streaks or put too much stock in spring slumps. Know that positive and negative regression happens. Pay attention to team depth, bullpen reliability, past results and odds. Never lose sight of value.
In most cases, barring an egregious underpricing, avoid backing Overs on the teams with the highest listed win totals. There's little room for improvement on aggressive lines.
Why timing and patience matter
As is typically the case in sports betting, timing has a major influence on MLB win total wagers.
When odds first drop in the early offseason -- often in December or January after the hot stove runs -- the teams coming off strong seasons tend to get projected for more wins than they should be while teams coming off down years tend to get undervalued. Capitalize on the value on both ends of the spectrum.
Patience matters, too. If you like a team but don't like their opening lines, wait for the market to react and the odds to shift as a result. Books don't just set odds based on their projections — they're also reacting to the public and sharp betting markets.
Lines can also move dramatically once injuries, roster cuts and/or trades occur. Waiting for clarity and getting more of the big picture allows bettors to make more knowledge-based bets.
How to place win total bets on your sportsbook apps
- Research how odds differ between several betting sites to find the best total to bet.
- Select a legal sportsbook of your choice.
- Find the MLB betting section on the homepage.
- Go to the designated Futures or Win Totals section.
- Identify the team and total you want to bet.
- Select "Over" or "Under."
- Enter how much you want to bet, or your "stake."
- Submit your bet.