JUMP TO:
- What are MLB player props?
- How to bet strikeout props
- How to bet hits and total bases props
- Factors that impact MLB prop lines
- How to find value and manage risk
- Common mistakes in MLB prop betting
Baseball — especially Major League Baseball — has enjoyed a fan resurgence since the superstar breakouts of players like Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge and Cal Raleigh. Not surprisingly, MLB player props are also as popular as they have ever been.
So, what are player props? And how do you bet them? What are some tips and tricks to becoming a winning prop bettor? Or what are the common prop betting mistakes to avoid?
AllSportsPeople will answer all of these questions in our MLB player prop guide.
MORE: Complete guide to betting on MLB
What are MLB player props?
Player vs. Team vs. Game props
Player props are wagers involving the performance of a specific athlete. They have become one of the most popular forms of prop betting, typically presented as an over/under bet or yes/no proposition on a specific statistical milestone.
Examples of player props include home runs, runs or hits over/under bets, pitcher win bets, and questions like "Will the pitcher throw a no-hitter?" Or "Will the batter record a grand slam?"
Team prop bets focus on a team's performance, stats or achievements during a game, rather than the performance of an individual player.
Examples include team runs over/under props and yes/no propositions like "Which team will be the first to score 4 runs?" And "Which team will record more home runs?"
Game props are bets on occurrences throughout the game that are not specific to an individual player or team.
Examples include "Will the game go into extra innings?" And "Will a no-hitter be pitched?"
Examples of popular MLB player props
The most popular MLB player props are home run props. It's not just chicks who dig the long ball — male bettors love the homers, too. Other popular player props include RBI, hit and total base over/unders, strikeout props and stolen base over/unders.
Why prop betting appeals to baseball fans
Prop betting appeals to baseball fans because it's a stat-driven sport and MLB knowledge can often translate to betting success.
Most diehard fans of the game know the most consistent players, the levels of success certain players enjoy in certain circumstances and in specific matchups and how well players have pitched or hit of late.
Prop betting also resembles fantasy sports, as it entails projecting, comparing and monitoring/tracking statistical data from game to game.
MORE: Betting glossary — key terms to know for every beginner sports bettor
How to bet strikeout props
There are a few strategies to consider if you want to bet on MLB pitcher props. Let's discuss them below.
Key pitching stats to track
Don't just look at strikeouts and win-loss records — those just scratch the service in terms of explaining a pitching profile. Advanced stats tell a much more detailed story, including K/9, Opponent K% and Whiff Rate.
K/9 indicate how many strikeouts a pitcher averages over nine innings. Opponent strikeout percentage shows how many punch-outs a pitchers' opponents average each game. Whiff Rate indicates the percentage of swing-and-misses a batter averages per swing.
Matchup factors and splits that matter
You don't want to simply analyze the past few games between teams — every game is inherently different because of a number of factors and variables.
Look at the pitchers' success vs. The projected batters in the opposing lineup. Check out the home vs. Away splits of the pitcher and the opposing hitters. See how batters fare against certain pitch styles. Never go in blind.
When to target overs vs. Unders
If a player has enjoyed a recent surge, his projected numbers for an upcoming game might have skyrocketed. Target the under as the bloated projection yields value on the other side. Positive and negative regression almost always happen after extremes, one way or the other.
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How to bet hits and total bases props
Difference between hits and total bases
Hits are when a batter makes contact with the ball and gets on base without producing an out or benefiting from an error. Total bases are the sum of the amount of bases a hitter has reached in a game (single = 1 base, double = 2 bases, triple = 3 bases, home run = 4 bases).
Stats that predict success
Many advanced batting stats can help bettors accurately predict a players' success in a game.
XBA (expected batting average) reveals how well a batter has hit the ball, xBA, or expected batting average, measures a player's performance based on the quality of their batted balls regardless of luck or defensive positioning.
Hard-hit percentage, launch angle and barrel rate, also known as Statcast data, reveal how hard a batter has been hitting the ball, how effectively they have been lifting the ball, and how often they hit the ball on the sweet spot of the bat.
Using park factors and pitcher matchups
Two other variables that have important effects on player performances are park factors and pitcher matchups. Some ballparks are more hitter-friendly and some are more pitcher-friendly. Similarly, some matchups favor the batter, while others favor the man on the mound.
MORE: Ultimate sports betting checklist to follow
Factors that impact MLB prop lines
Many factors come into play in MLB prop betting and oddsmaking. Those include:
- Weather conditions
- Matchup data
- Recent performances
- Batter vs. Pitcher splits
- Home vs. Away splits
- Public betting data
- Sharp bets and liabilities
MORE: The importance of line shopping in sports betting
How to find value and manage risk
Finding value in MLB prop betting involves identifying where a sportsbook has potentially misjudged the true probability of an outcome, resulting in odds that are more favorable than they probably should be.
Unlike traditional game lines, prop bets often merit less time and effort from oddsmakers, creating opportunities for informed bettors to gain an edge.
Bettors' central goal is to capitalize on expected value (EV). EV is the key to identifying bets. When your assessment of an outcome's probability is higher than the implied probability from the sportsbook's odds, you have pinpointed EV.
However, you'll first want to be sure you have set up a reliable research and analysis process. Use reliable statistics and projection models to form your own assessment of a player's projected performance.
Quality sources to tap into include FanGraphs, TeamRankings, Baseball Savant, Props.Cash, PlayerProps.ai and BetQL. These sites offer research resources, tools, models and expert analysis specifically designed to analyze player prop trends and market data and run projections.
Research player and team trends — you can never get too deep into the stats and analysis. Start to know the league better than the books do. Track specific players so you can find some go-to betting targets and also so you can hone your analysis skills.
Analyze matchups, historic data, split stats and specific situational details. Take into account recent performance, injuries and venue. Forecast the weather, including wind gusts, humidity and temperature. Know the umpire crew! The more you know, the better your chances of developing winning habits and making profitability your regular player prop betting trend.
MORE: What is a betting unit?
Common mistakes in MLB prop betting
All bettors make mistakes, but MLB prop bettors — especially beginner MLB prop bettors — should be particularly weary of making these common errors.
Targeting big names over value
Casual bettors and beginners often bet on the big-name players, who often yield higher projections, shorter odds and lower-value props overall. Always target value, not stars.
Failing to conduct the research
Don't solely rely on gut feelings or your basic knowledge of baseball. Winning prop bettors thoroughly research player statistics, team dynamics, injury reports, matchup data and past/historic performances.
Overvaluing recent performances
Putting too much emphasis on a player or team's most recent games, or having too much confidence in their ability because of one hot game, can have a profoundly negative effect on one's bankroll. A single good or bad performance does not necessarily indicate a long-term trend, so consider analyzing a longer period of data.
Overvaluing the starting pitcher
While a top-tier pitcher is important, they are not the only variable in a game. Novice bettors often overlook the strength and recent usage of the bullpen and defense, both of which are critical in baseball.
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Ignoring external factors
Seemingly small details can have significant impacts on prop bets. Factors like weather conditions, ballpark, injuries, suspensions or coaching changes should be part of your analysis.
Ignoring advanced stats
Baseball is a sport driven by data, but many new bettors only look at basic stats. Ignoring advanced metrics can prevent you from pinpointing true value.
Not practicing good bankroll management
If you're not managing your money effectively, win or lose, you're asking for trouble. Bankroll management strategies help you establish a plan for how much money you can afford to risk, how much you should be spending per bet, and how to have impulse control.
Chasing losses
Prop bettors often find themselves chasing losses, trying to make up for a tough loss with another quick bet. Make sure you're following a research-based process and sticking to an efficient and consistent process so you don't spin out of control.
Not shopping for the best lines
Like with any kind of betting, MLB prop bettors should always target the best lines. That means line-shopping across all the major sportsbooks available and licensed in the area.
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Popular sportsbooks that may be available in your area
Even if sports betting is legal in your state, not all sportsbooks may be available to you. Here are some of the most popular options to look into: