JUMP TO:
- What are MLB futures bets?
- How MLB futures odds are set and move
- Strategies for betting MLB futures
- Betting MLB awards markets
- How to find value in MLB futures markets
- Common mistakes bettors make with futures
MLB betting has become as popular and accessible as ever, and baseball fans in most of the US now know just about every available form of betting.
One ever-growing format, futures betting, has become particularly popular amongst MLB bettors for its potential long-term payoff.
So, what are futures bets? Which MLB futures bets are most common? And how can new players become profitable futures bettors? Here's all that you need to know.
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What are MLB futures bets?
MLB futures bets establish markets based on season-long windows or other defined time periods (half-seasons, etc.) That require players to predict stats, milestones, awards, and achievements that will finalize in the future.
Futures bets can be team-based (World Series winner, AL and NL pennants, etc) or player-based (MVP, Cy Young, 200 strikeouts, 50 home runs, batting average leader, etc.).
Examples of common MLB futures bets
World Series Champion
The No. 1 most popular MLB betting futures market is World Series champ. Just like NFL betting has the Super Bowl, MLB betting has the Fall Classic.
Futures markets tend to be dominated by titles and championships, just as most professional sports leagues put the league title above everything in terms of meaning.
Division Winners
Many savvy futures bettors prefer divisional pennant bets as opposed to World Series bets. It can be far more predictable and less random, although the odds tend to be much shorter as a result.
MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year
Player awards like MVP, Cy Young and Rookie of the Year are also very popular, especially since the rise of super-sluggers Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge.
Win Total Over/Unders
An underrated and under-appreciated futures market, MLB win total Over/Unders are projected win totals for teams and pitchers. Sharp bettors often find value on these markets, although sharp bettors tend to limit their futures exposure as they don't want too much money tied up in long-term wagers.
Why MLB futures appeal to long-term bettors
Players who view sports betting as a long-term investment might like the concept of futures because they're okay with finding value and making profits across large windows of time.
Futures often feature high-payout opportunities for bettors who conduct extensive offseason and in-season research. They also make teams, players and playoff races more fun to root in the marathon-style season of the big leagues.
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How MLB futures odds are set and move
A number of different factors and variables influence MLB futures odds, from the opening lines to midseason fluctuations and closing odds. Let's discuss in more detail how oddsmakers set lines and why they move.
What influences opening lines
From the moment one MLB season ends, the odds for the following season's World Series are established. Other major MLB futures odds will also open up before Opening Day of the following season.
Futures odds are established through a combination of statistical modeling and expect analytical projections. The sportsbooks and their oddsmakers also want to set lines that attract a balanced amount of betting on all outcomes (balance means profit for books, because books profit off the vig or commission/fee for each bet placed).
Factors that influence opening lines include strength at the end of the previous season, offseason roster retention, additions and departures, injuries, and coaching changes. Statistical projections come into play, often based on advanced algorithms, expert analysis and complex models.
Why futures odds change throughout the year (Injuries, trades, win streaks, and public money)
Futures odds move after the opening lines because, as always, the regular season is fluid. Injuries occur, trades take place, teams go on win streaks, and other teams go cold.
Public money also manipulates the market, as the books need to adjust odds to limit their risk and not take on too much liability to a certain player or team.
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Strategies for betting MLB futures
The most important strategy for betting MLB futures is to do ample amounts of research. Think about how oddsmakers would run trading. Use past stats and data to your advantage. You won't find an edge through guesswork.
Actively shop betting lines. Compare odds to find the best price.
Timing can be vital when betting futures, too. Opening lines sometimes yield value, while other times opening odds are too short as the books know casual bettors will back their favorite team at any price. Know which odds you're looking for, and be patient if the price isn't right.
Buying low on a team that seems due for positive or negative regression can pay off handsomely in the long run. This is the kind of time to jump on that preseason favorite that yielded short odds in March.
Powerhouses don't slump forever, so if the public becomes cold to betting on them, jump at the chance. Anticipate changes in the league's landscape.
Betting on teams you predict will be buyers at the trade deadline can be profitable, too. Inseason acquisitions can swing a team's momentum in a major way, so if you're hearing rumors a certain team is trying to land a big piece via the trade market you might want to make a move youself.
Always consider the schedule, injuries and key factors like weather and ballparks. Lots of variables come into play in futures betting, just as many factors come into play on a game-by-game basis. Always keep the big picture in mind.
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Betting MLB awards markets
It's easy to get sucked into betting superstar frontrunners for MLB awards, but it's imperative to realize that value trumps everything in futures betting, just like it trumps everything in most facets of sports wagering.
When contemplating an MLB futures bet on an award, try to analyze it fully by weighing the risk.
Are you buying low on a player with a solid track record and past history of success? Is there a strong chance this player will remain atop the odds board for the entire year, or is he just having a good run? Do your own research and projections before locking in a futures investment.
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How to find value in MLB futures markets
To find value on MLB futures markets, you must pinpoint when a sportsbook's odds seem to be underestimating or overlooking a team's or player's true probability of success.
This requires a commitment to thorough long-term data analysis and continual knowledge of the league as well as the betting market itself.
Bettors can't find value in the futures market without understanding odds, how to read them, and what they mean. Get to know implied probability and monitor trends in the market throughout the year.
Once one of your predictions or projections differs from the sportsbook, capitalize on the perceived odds inaccuracy.
MORE: The importance of line shopping in sports betting
Common mistakes bettors make with futures
Here's some common betting mistakes often made around futures, and how you can avoid falling under any of these categories:
- Overvaluing favorites and not paying attention to odds/value: Don't get swept up by the hype behind a hot hitter or team. Bet based on value, not based on what the rest of the public seems to be betting.
- Poor bankroll management: Don't put too much money into the futures market. They are inherently risky bets, given the long and winding journey toward being settled. They tie your betting investment money up for long periods of time. Try to stick to the 1-5 rule, betting only 1-5% of your bankroll with each future like you would with MLB player prop or parlay betting.
- Neglecting key analytics: Don't just look at the basic stats and win-loss metrics. Look at the advanced data, StatCast metrics, split stats and more. Oddsmakers look at the bigger picture, and so do winning bettors.
- Chasing losses and betting impulsively: Increasing the size of your wagers to recover from previous losses is a common and destructive mistake. It can lead to reckless decisions and the further depletion of your bankroll, especially in long-term markets.
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Popular sportsbooks that may be available in your area
Even if sports betting is legal in your state, not all sportsbooks may be available to you. Here are some of the most popular options to look into:
MORE: How sportsbooks set betting lines