JUMP TO:
- What is live betting in the NBA?
- Why NBA games are perfect for live betting
- Momentum swings and scoring runs
- How foul trouble and injuries impact live odds
- Popular live betting markets in the NBA
- Tips for successful live betting on NBA games
- Risks and challenges of NBA in-game wagering
Since the United States repealed its federal ban on gambling and allowed individual states to legalize sportsbooks, NBA betting has steadily grown in popularity. One specific market that has grown exponentially since 2018 is live betting.
So, what is live betting? And what do new bettors need to know in order to begin wagering on in-game bets and props?
Keep reading to learn everything you need to know about NBA live betting, including some tips on how to pinpoint value and become a winning live bettor.
MORE: Complete guide to betting the NBA
What is live betting in the NBA?
Live betting in the NBA, also known as in-play betting or in-game betting, is the act of placing wagers on a specific game after it has already started.
Unlike traditional pre-game betting, live betting offers dynamic odds that constantly shift based on the real-time events on the court, such as momentum changes, player performance, injuries, coaches' decisions, foul trouble and ejections.
MORE: What to know about betting on NBA player props
Why NBA games are perfect for live betting
NBA games tend to swing drastically from one side to the other. It's a game of momentum or runs, so a team with a big lead could easily blow that lead in the following quarter or half.
Many sharp bettors like to bet the underdogs' live spread if they start the game with a massive deficit, because the odds of the winning side keeping its feet on the proverbial gas the whole game are low but the sportsbooks will keep the winning side's spread high to limit liabilities.
Similarly, an exceptionally low-scoring first quarter can be a good opportunity to bet a live over on the total. And, for that matter, a particularly high-scoring start with incredibly high field-goal percentages on both sides merits consideration for an under bet, as negative regression can be expected.
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Momentum swings and scoring runs
We see momentum swings in the NBA, just like in the NFL. It always seems to be a newsworthy storyline in hoops — Team A blows massive lead against Team B. Basketball is a momentum-fueled game. It's a tale as old as time, and bettors have been profiting off wild momentum swings for ages.
Teams can go hot and cold from the field, players can get injured or fatigued and coaches can adjust their offense, defense or specific strategies (going "big" on offense, running a full-court press, switching to zone defense, hacking a poor free-throw shooter, etc). All these elements of the game impact the final result, and all affect the live-betting market throughout the game.
MORE: The dos and don'ts of bankroll management in sports betting
How foul trouble and injuries impact live odds
If a star player gets in foul trouble or gets injured, it stands to reason that the odds of his team winning will go down. Paying attention to how a game is playing out and anticipating these negative-impact situations can be extremely beneficial to live bettors. The goal is to beat the live oddsmakers and live algorithms to the punch and get in value bets before the sportsbooks adjust the in-game lines.
Popular live betting markets in the NBA
Just like the traditional pregame odds offerings, NBA games have live markets for just about any element of betting. That includes the following:
Spreads
Spreads are the amount of points a team is projected to win by. Spreads are covered by the favorite when they win by more than that amount, while underdogs can cover by either (a) winning or (b) losing by less than that amount.
Pregame spreads lock at the opening tip, but live spreads shift throughout the game. Any time a game swings one way or another, the spread shifts. When a lead extends, the spread increases.
Totals
The total for the game is the projected amount of total scoring, combining both teams' scores. Totals can also include the home or away team's scoring total individually. These projections obviously also shift throughout the game, depending on how low-scoring or high-scoring the game began.
Player props
Just like spreads and totals, player props (aka stat over/unders or yes/no propositions) can ebb and flow based on how the game plays out. Many variables come into play during a game, and the sportsbooks constantly need to mitigate risk and manage liabilities by shifting live projections and odds.
MORE: What is a betting unit?
Tips for successful live betting on NBA games
Here's some advice for how to become a successful NBA live bettor.
- Follow the game in real time and pay close attention: Simply following the box score won't give you the full picture of how a game is unfolding. Make sure to tune in via live stream, TV broadcast, SiriusXM or reliable play-by-play tracker. Knowing the context of the game as it unfolds is instrumental to pinpointing live-betting value opportunities.
- Set a budget and stick to it: Sportsbooks allow you to place limits on the amount you can bet in a certain day or on specific games. Before the game begins, set a bankroll. Avoid chasing losses and going on tilt aka betting impulsively. Sharp bettors follow the 1–5% rule, where you risk no more than this percentage of your total bankroll on a single bet.
- Line-shop across multiple sportsbooks: Different books will offer different live lines. Comparing odds allows you to find better value and maybe even set up arbitrage or "middle" bet opportunities.
- Stay disciplined: Live betting moves quickly, but don't confuse speed with recklessness. Act quickly when you see a good line, but stick to your overall strategy and don't let emotions or frustration play into your betting decisions.
- Target favorites trailing early: When a favored team starts slow, sportsbooks and bettors often overreact. The books will suddenly offer the pregame favorite at better odds, and bettors will throw their money at the team in the lead without taking into consideration that regression can and likely will take place before the end of the game.
- Capitalize on momentum shifts: Watch for wild momentum swings and odds shifts and find the value that results.
- Focus on player matchups and coaches' rotations: Pay attention to who is on the court. If a star player is in foul trouble, a defender is dominating an offensive player, or the opposing team's bench is getting outplayed, these are all opportunities to find value in the odds.
MORE: Check out the ultimate sports betting checklist
Risks and challenges of NBA in-game wagering
Before we conclude, let's first consider the pros and cons to live betting NBA games.
Pros to live betting the NBA
- Allows bettors to adjust to real-time information and game flow
- The ability to profit off of momentum shifts
- Profitability through paying attention to matchups/lineups/turns of events
- Particularly strong value-betting opportunities when odds fluctuate greatly
- Odds for favorites can become more attractive if underdogs get out to an early lead
- Opportunities to exploit sportsbook errors
- Bettors can hedge and middle their pre-game bets
Cons to live betting the NBA
- Riskier betting environment/increased risk of impulsive decisions
- Less time to research because of quick, fluid odds changes
- The risk of chasing losses, going on tilt, or betting emotionally
- Unpredictable market fluctuations
- Potential for decreased value as the game progresses
- Risk of technical delays or falling behind sportsbooks because of live-broadcast delays
MORE: Importance of line shopping in sports betting
Popular sportsbooks that may be available in your area
Even if sports betting is legal in your state, not all sportsbooks may be available to you. Here are some of the most popular options to look into: