Anthony Joshua is one of boxing’s biggest stars. Jake Paul is boxing’s biggest disruptor. What will happen when the two face off in a David vs. Goliath matchup on December 19 at the Kaseya Center in Miami?
Paul (12-1), who fought Mike Tyson last year and Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. A few months ago, was supposed to fight Gervonta Davis until the fight was nixed following recent domestic allegations against Davis. He’s the massive underdog but ready to turn some heads.
"I set these goals, and everyone laughs at them, and then I’m the one laughing at the end... I'm gonna shock the world and pull off the biggest upset in sports history," Paul said.
Joshua (28-4) is a former two-time unified heavyweight champion. After getting knocked out in his last fight, the Brit took a year off from action. The jovial Joshua has given Paul his props for taking this fight, but believes the mood will change once the bell rings.
“I was actually looking at myself today. I'm a very respectful guy, brought up by a good family, but if I can kill you, I will kill you. That's just how I am, and this is just the job I do, so let's go,” Joshua said via MMA Junkie.
The card will also see several women’s title fights, with defenses from the likes of Alycia Baumgardner, Cherneka Johnson, Yokasta Valle, and Caroline Dubois.
With the help of the FanDuel Sportsbook, AllSportsPeople makes predictions on the entire Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua fight card.
Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua odds
- Anthony Joshua -900 | Jake Paul +600
- Paul via KO/TKO: +1100
- Paul via decision: +1300
- Joshua via KO/TKO: -360
- Joshua via decision: +450
- Draw: +2500
Anthony Joshua is the heavy betting favorite at -900 as of Thursday (12/18), according to FanDuel Sportsbook, while Jake Paul is the +600 underdog.
Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua predictions
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Anthony Joshua is the -1300 favorite, while Jake Paul is the +700 underdog.
Is this an easy decision as everyone thinks?
Paul is a power puncher who can also fight effectively in and out of range. He landed 49 of 157 shots (31.2%) against Tommy Fury. Against Nate Diaz, Paul landed 174 of 491 shots (35.4%), landing 140 for power. Of those shots, 34 jabs kept Diaz at bay.
Against Mike Tyson, Paul landed 78 of 278 shots (28.1%), aiming for the body throughout the fight. The fight was contested under two-minute rounds. It showcased Paul’s agility but also how old and fragile Tyson was at 58.
In his last fight against Julio Cesar Chavez Jr., Paul landed 140 of 482 (29%) of his shots, 79 more than Chavez. He only landed single-digit shots once.
Joshua’s resume trumps Paul’s, but how do his skills measure up?
Among heavyweights, Joshua ranks second with a +/- of 7.8. He ranks third among all active fighters in jab connect percentage (26%) and in fewest power shots thrown per round (16.9). Joshua ranks sixth within the heavyweight division with a power connect percentage mark of 38.4%.
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It’s been a long time since the Oleksandr Usyk series, where he went 0-2. Coming into the rematch against Usyk, Joshua landed 12.4 of 39.2 punches per round. Joshua averaged 10 and 41 in the rematch. Since then, he improved significantly, thanks in part to Ben Davison making him a patient fighter.
Against Otto Wallin, Joshua landed 21 shots in the fifth round, with seven of them jabs. He had a 32.1% connect mark, showcasing a model of efficiency and a cerebral boxing mind. Joshua demolished Francis Ngannou by landing 12 of 41 shots (29%), with seven jabs.
The Brit is coming off a loss against Daniel Dubois, where he got dropped several times. The latter landed 79 strikes, with 20 in the second. Joshua did not land double-digit strikes. He recently switched trainers, again. However, it’s safe to say Jake Paul is not Daniel Dubois.
Joshua broke down Wallin with a jab, something Paul will attempt to do. While a novice compared to Joshua, Paul’s jab can look beautiful at times. Then there’s Joshua’s power, with many looking for him to punch Paul’s head off.
The fight can go one of three ways. Joshua could end it in the first three rounds, Paul could surprise and force a decision, or we have a Floyd Mayweather-Conor McGregor situation where Joshua carries the fight until he decides to end it. The first and last scenarios seem more realistic, but anything can happen in boxing.
AllSportsPeople believes an upset is possible. Just remember Joshua vs. Andy Ruiz almost six years ago. However, a Joshua knockout win seems more plausible.
AllSportsPeople prediction: Joshua via KO (round four)
Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua fight card picks
Alycia Baumgardner (c) vs. Leila Beaudoin for the IBF, WBA, WBO, and The Ring super featherweight titles
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Alycia Baumgardner is the -1600 favorite, while Leila Beaudoin is the +830 underdog.
Following a year away to clear her name following a positive drug test controversy, Baumgardner needed time to adapt. The power-punching fighter, known as “The Bomb,” appears to be back in full form. And that could spell trouble for Beaudoin.
Baumgardner ranks seventh in jabs landed per round (3.2). She’s also known for sharing the wealth. Against Mikaela Mayer, Baumgardner landed more power shots (82) and had a better connect percentage (34.6%). It took her a while, but she looked like her former self against Jennifer Miranda.
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Baumgardner’s defense has been superb over the years, as her opponents have the tenth-lowest connect percentage mark (22%) in the sport.
Beaudoin is no pushover. She kept Elhem Mekhaled busy for about six rounds before winning via TKO. Heading into the fight, Beaudoin’s goal was to adjust her punch output, resulting in the stoppage. Beaudoin will have to match Baumgardner’s power in order to stop her.
It’s easier said than done, especially with this fight having three-minute rounds. That factor may benefit Baumgardner’s speed and ring IQ. The fight could have a fast pace, with Baumgardner ultimately overwhelming Beaudoin towards the end.
AllSportsPeople prediction: Baumgardner via TKO (round nine)
Cherneka Johnson (c) vs. Amanda Galle for the IBF, WBA, WBC, WBO, and Ring bantamweight titles
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Cherneka Johnson is the -1300 favorite, while Amanda Galle is the +600 underdog.
Johnson ranks eighth among active fighters with a +/- of 8.7. She is tenth in average total punches thrown per round (47.7) and seventh in punches landed (14.4), a 30.2% connect percentage mark. "Sugar Neekz" has relied on the jab, averaging 6.6 jabs landed per round.
In the first of two fights against Nina Hughes, Johnson landed 167 of 520 shots (32.1%), refusing to land single-digit blows. Hughes' corner threw in the towel in the rematch after Johnson battered her for six+ rounds. She overwhelmed Shurretta Metcalf to become the undisputed champion.
Galle has only had one fight end via stoppage. The competition she has faced has not been as elite as Johnson’s, which may result in some trouble for the Canadian.
Johnson is always locked in on fight night, and she may continue her reign in brutal fashion. Expect a series of jabs followed by sharp punches that will overwhelm Galle.
AllSportsPeople prediction: Johnson via TKO (round six)
Yokasta Valle (c) vs. Yadira Bustillos for the WBC strawweight title
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Yokasta Valle is the -1300 favorite, while Yadira Bustillos is the +590 underdog.
Valle ranks sixth among active fighters with a 10.2 +/-, averaging 48.9 punches thrown per round (ranked ninth) and landing 13.1 (ninth). She ranks within the top ten of almost all major offensive categories. Meanwhile, her opponents rank second-worst in total connect percentage (16.6%).
In a close loss against Seniesa Estrada, Valle almost tied in total punches landed (by two punches). Her output was elite in the middle rounds. Against Marlen Esparza, Valle had the edge in punches landed. Once again, her output shone in the middle rounds.
Bustillos has won two of her last four fights via knockout. However, she is far less active than Valle, only competing twice in two years. Her age (25) trumps Valle, 33, but the latter’s experience and patience should pay off in this fight.
AllSportsPeople prediction: Valle via unanimous decision
Caroline Dubois (c) vs. Camilla Panatta for the WBC lightweight title
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Caroline Dubois is the -3500 favorite, while Camilla Panatta is the +940 underdog.
It’s a fight booked at the last minute, as Dubois just recently signed with Most Valuable Promotions. The sister of Daniel Dubois may not have his power, but she does come with some pop. In her last six fights, Dubois has dropped four of her opponents.
Between fighting other contenders, Panatta has competed in Team Combat League action. The consistency of the fights in the latter may result in fatigue. That’s where Dubois can take advantage and start her run with MVP with an impressive win.