JUMP TO:
- What are MLB home run props?
- Why home run props are so volatile
- Key stats behind home run props
- How to find value in home run prop markets
- Common mistakes bettors make on home run props
Prop betting continues to rise in popularity as sports betting becomes more widely legalized in the United States. One of the most popular Major League Baseball prop bets, home run props are regarded in a love/hate manner in the betting world.
Casuals and beginners love home run props for the same reason "chicks dig the long ball." (Remember that commercial from the '90s!?). Dingers are exciting, and winning bets on dingers is fun as all get out.
That said, homer props are also volatile, so sharp bettors tend to avoid them entirely. While new bettors see the long odds as exciting and potentially lucrative, seasoned bettors see them as difficult to hit and risky.
Let's further discuss how to develop a home run prop betting strategy, including how to identify value picks.
What are MLB home run props?
MLB home run props are a type of proposition bet (aka prop bet) that focuses on a player's ability to hit a home run in a specific game. Unlike traditional bets that involve the final score and outcome, home run props specifically involve whether an individual player will hit a homer.
These markets are popular for MLB betting because they offer potentially large payouts, which are reflected in their odds (typically plus odds, indicated by the + symbol).
How MLB home run props work
Sportsbooks list specific players for each game and offer "Yes/No" prop odds on whether they will hit a home run. The odds are dynamic and influenced by several factors, including:
- Player's power stats: The player's season-long and recent home run frequency.
- Opposing pitcher: The batter's historical performance against a specific pitcher, or against a certain type of pitcher (e.g., a left-handed batter facing a right-handed pitcher).
- Ballpark factors: Some stadiums are more prone to home runs than others due to altitude, wind patterns, and park dimensions.
- Weather: Humidity and wind direction can affect how far a ball travels.
Types of home run prop bets
Many different kinds of home run prop bets exist. They include:
- Will a specific player hit a home run?
- Will the player hit multiple home runs?
- Will both teams combine to hit over/under "X" home runs?
- Will a player hit the first home run of the game?
- Will a player hit the next home run of the game?
- Will a player hit a home run in the next plate appearance, or this inning?
Why home run props are so volatile
Home run props are fun — we've already established that. However, they are also risky, and sharp bettors tend to avoid them because of the volatility that comes with them. Let's discuss why.
The low probability of hitting a home run
The biggest reason why home run props are so volatile is obvious: There's a low probability of a player hitting a home run on any given night.
Even the best power hitters in the league typically max out at 50-60 home runs per season, and that's in as many as 162 games or over 700 plate appearances.
Cal Raleigh hit 60 long balls in 159 games and 705 plate appearances in 2025. That averages out to a home run in 37 percent of games and 22.5 percent of plate appearances.
Those aren't great odds or probabilities, and yet Raleigh's home run props sometimes pay out at just 2/1.
How weather, park factors, and randomness affect results
Another reason why home run props can be risky is the external factors and variables.
- If it's raining, cold or windy, the ball might not travel as well off the bat.
- If it's a pitcher-friendly ballpark, the hitter might struggle to leave the yard.
- If a pitcher is wild and/or can't find the strike zone, the batter could draw walks and thus not hit a long ball despite having a plus impact on his team's chances of winning.
Winning a home run prop is kind of like winning a poker hand. You can do as much research as possible and be as consistent and process-oriented as you can be and still rely on luck.
Why sportsbooks shade odds toward star players
Sportsbooks shorten odds for superstar hitters because they know the betting public will pay the price for them regardless of value. Players known for hitting lots of home runs are often viewed by sharps as the worst value investments on the betting market.
Key stats behind home run props
If you're going to bet home run props, dive into the advanced data and metrics. Learn as much as you can about StatCast on BaseballSavant, including pitching data and hard-hit stats.
Hard-hit rate, average exit velocity, launch angle and barrel rate all paint a much better picture than standard home run and RBI stats. Batter vs. Pitcher stats also reveal how well the hitter has fared against the projected starter throughout their careers.
You don't just want to see how often a hitter goes yard. You want to see how often they hit certain pitches, how well they see certain pitches, which parks they excel in, and how often they get the sweet spot of the barrel on the ball when they swing.
How to find value bets in home run prop markets
Think about how sportsbooks set betting lines before you even look at the sportsbooks' odds.
How does the books' line differ from yours? Do your projected stats tell you that the odds listed by the book are a value or a volatile bet?
The name of the game is research, and you can't approach home run prop betting without first considering all stats, data and factors affecting a player's potential of hitting a homer.
Common mistakes bettors make on home run props
Avoid these top betting errors when examining MLB HR prop markets:
- Betting on the big names or superstar hitters blindly: Pay attention to odds and probability and target value, not superstar names.
- Overvaluing hot streaks: When a batter gets hot, his home run odds shorten. Don't get lured in by recent streaks and wind up paying up just in time for the regression. A slumping slugger with a good pitching matchup will always yield better value.
- Ignoring park factors and weather: These factors matter a lot.
- Neglecting advanced data/pitching matchups: Hard-hit data, pitching metrics and recent stats are all important pieces of the puzzle. Use advanced stats to your advantage and utilize them to find an edge.
- Betting without line-shopping: Look at many different sportsbooks to find the best possible odds and biggest potential payouts. Get the most bang for your buck.
- Wagering large amounts on HR props: Never bet too much on a player prop like a home run bet. Bettors should always keep their bankroll management in mind and never bet more than 1-5 percent of their bankrolls on props.