The Atlanta Falcons travel to Tampa Bay for a pivotal NFC South divisional battle that could reshape the playoff picture. While the Tampa Bay Buccaneers fight to maintain their grip on the division title, Atlanta has shifted into spoiler mode after their championship aspirations took a hit. This Thursday Night Football showdown features a compelling quarterback duel between Kirk Cousins and Baker Mayfield, with both signal-callers looking to bounce back from recent struggles.
Falcons vs Bucs Best Bets
The Buccaneers hold the statistical edge, averaging 22.7 points per game compared to Atlanta's 19.1, largely thanks to their impressive +8 turnover differential. However, the Falcons bring a ferocious pass rush that's recorded 43.0 sacks this season, setting up an intriguing battle between Atlanta's defensive front and Tampa Bay's offensive line.
With stars like Mike Evans potentially returning from injury, this divisional rivalry promises fireworks under the Thursday night lights.
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Falcons vs Buccaneers Betting Odds
This critical NFC South showdown kicks off on Thursday, December 11, 2025, at 8:15 PM EST at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida.
- Moneyline: Buccaneers (-227) | Falcons (+185)
- Spread: Buccaneers -4.5 (-110) | Falcons +4.5 (-110)
- Total: Over/Under 44.5 (Over -105 | Under -115)
Betting odds courtesy of MGM.
Tampa Bay enters as clear home favorites with the -4.5 point spread, reflecting oddsmakers' confidence in their ability to win by more than a field goal. The Falcons offer solid value as road underdogs at +185 on the moneyline for those believing in an upset. The game total sits at 44.5 points, with the juice slightly favoring the under.
Statistical Breakdown: Falcons vs Buccaneers Key Matchups
The numbers reveal a fascinating clash of contrasting strengths. While Atlanta edges Tampa Bay in total offense (330.0 yards per game vs 315.0), the Buccaneers have been far more efficient at converting yards into points, outscoring the Falcons by 3.6 points per game.
The most telling mismatch appears on third down, where Tampa Bay converts at a solid 38.4% clip while Atlanta struggles at just 31.0%. This could prove decisive in a divisional game where sustained drives matter. However, the Falcons flip the script in the red zone, converting an impressive 57.9% of their trips into touchdowns compared to Tampa Bay's 50.0% efficiency.
Defensively, Atlanta's elite pass rush (43.0 sacks) will test a Buccaneers offensive line that must protect Mayfield in the pocket. The turnover battle looms largest, with Tampa Bay's defense generating that crucial +8 differential while forcing 12 interceptions. Cousins enters coming off a brutal two-pick performance in a 37-9 loss where Atlanta's offense failed to reach the end zone.
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Falcons vs Buccaneers Prediction and Best Bets
While Tampa Bay rightfully sits as home favorites, this divisional rivalry game sets up for a grinding, defensive battle. Both teams' offensive struggles point toward a lower-scoring affair that stays under the total.
The Buccaneers' success stems from their ball-control offense and takeaway-happy defense, while Atlanta's strength lies in their pass rush disrupting opposing quarterbacks. With both teams combining to average just 41.8 points per game, expect a defensive slugfest that rewards patience over explosive plays.
Best Bet: Under 44.5 (-115)
The most compelling player prop targets the game's biggest statistical mismatch. Tampa Bay's defense has thrived on forcing turnovers with that +8 differential and 12 interceptions, while Cousins enters a hostile road environment after throwing two picks in his last outing. Given the Buccaneers' proven ability to capitalize on quarterback mistakes, backing Cousins to throw at least one interception offers solid value.
Best Player Prop: Kirk Cousins Over 0.5 Interceptions (-128)