Dolphins vs Steelers Player Props: Jaylen Waddle and Aaron Rodgers Predictions

The Miami Dolphins and Pittsburgh Steelers collide in a pivotal Monday Night Football showdown that promises compelling player prop opportunities across both rosters. The Steelers enter this primetime contest fresh off a gritty 27-22 victory over the Ravens, where quarterback Aaron Rodgers delivered a vintage performance with 284 passing yards and two total touchdowns.

Meanwhile, the Dolphins dominated the Jets 34-10 behind a balanced offensive attack led by running back De'Von Achane, who punctuated Miami's ground game with a 13-yard touchdown scamper.

Dolphins vs Steelers Player Props for Monday Night

Both offenses feature dynamic playmakers capable of exploiting favorable matchups, setting the stage for intriguing prop betting angles. From Rodgers' pocket presence against Miami's pass rush to Achane's explosive rushing ability versus Pittsburgh's run defense, individual performances will drive the narrative on Monday night.

The action kicks off from Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh at 8:15 PM EST, with cold December weather potentially influencing offensive game plans and creating additional betting considerations for savvy prop bettors.

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Dolphins vs Steelers Player Props & Lines

The primetime spotlight creates enhanced volatility in player prop markets, with several lines showing notable movement since opening. Key skill position players from both teams present compelling betting angles based on matchup dynamics and recent usage patterns.

Passing Props

The quarterback props reflect a conservative market approach, with Rodgers' passing yards line dropping from its 214.5 opener to 211.5. This adjustment likely factors in Miami's pass rush, which has generated 31.0 sacks this season. His touchdown prop sits at 1.5 with the over priced at +115, indicating moderate confidence in multiple scoring tosses.

Tagovailoa's passing yards line has ticked upward slightly from 190.5 to 192.5, though the modest total suggests Pittsburgh's defensive pressure could limit Miami's aerial attack. The Dolphins have accumulated 1,644 rushing yards this season, supporting a ground-heavy approach that's reflected in Tagovailoa's touchdown prop, where the under 1.5 carries heavy -227 juice.

Rushing & Receiving Props

The backfield props showcase significant market confidence in both featured runners. Achane's rushing yards line has climbed from 80.5 to 82.5, with his combined rushing and receiving total reaching 114.5 yards. This massive projection accounts for 37.6% of Miami's average 304.6 total yards per game, highlighting his central role in the offensive scheme.

Warren's rushing total has similarly increased from 49.5 to 51.5, while his total scrimmage yards prop jumped four full points to 69.5. These upward movements suggest market recognition of both backs' increased workloads in favorable game script scenarios.

Waddle's receiving yards line presents the most dramatic movement, surging from 56.5 to 63.5. This seven-yard adjustment indicates strong early action on the over, positioning him as Miami's primary pass-catching threat. Conversely, Metcalf's line decreased slightly from 52.5 to 51.5, while both tight ends (Waller and Freiermuth) saw their receiving totals drop by 1-3 yards.

Touchdown Scorer Props

The touchdown market heavily favors the primary ball carriers, with Achane (-123) and Warren (-101) representing the only minus-money anytime scorer options. Achane also leads the first touchdown scorer board at +438, reflecting his red zone efficiency and high-volume role.

Notable odds movement includes Freiermuth's anytime touchdown price lengthening from +330 to +448, suggesting decreased confidence in Pittsburgh's tight end packages. Waddle has shortened slightly from +215 to +207, while Calvin Austin's odds drifted from +432 to +533, indicating reduced market optimism for the Steelers' depth receivers.

Player Prop Betting Trends

Several key statistical patterns emerge when analyzing season-long performance against current prop lines:

• Tua Tagovailoa (MIA): Faces a challenging 192.5 passing yards line against a Steelers defense recording 36.0 sacks and 11 interceptions this season.
• Aaron Rodgers (PIT): His 211.5 passing total must overcome Miami's 31.0-sack pass rush that has consistently pressured opposing quarterbacks throughout the campaign.
• De'Von Achane (MIA): The 82.5 rushing yards prop reflects extreme usage expectations, with his 114.5 total scrimmage yards representing over one-third of Miami's offensive output.
• Jaylen Waddle (MIA): Market sentiment strongly favors a productive receiving night, evidenced by his line's substantial upward movement from 56.5 to 63.5 yards.
• Jaylen Warren (PIT): Both rushing (49.5 to 51.5) and total scrimmage (65.5 to 69.5) lines have trended upward, indicating increased confidence in his workload.
• Pat Freiermuth (PIT): Declining touchdown odds from +330 to +448 suggest reduced expectations for Pittsburgh's tight end involvement in scoring situations.

Top Player Props & Predictions

This Monday night matchup creates several compelling betting angles where statistical trends, matchup advantages, and game script projections align to offer legitimate value opportunities.

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Jaylen Waddle Over 63.5 Receiving Yards (-111)

Miami's offensive approach against Pittsburgh's aggressive pass rush should funnel targets directly to their most reliable receiver. The Steelers have accumulated 36.0 sacks this season, forcing opposing quarterbacks into quick-release situations that favor slot receivers and underneath routes.

Key Supporting Factors:

• Waddle would need approximately 33% of Tagovailoa's projected 192.5 passing yards, well within his target share capabilities as Miami's primary option
• Pittsburgh's pressure rate should eliminate deep developing routes, creating volume for short and intermediate patterns where Waddle excels
• The Dolphins average 304.6 total yards per game, requiring heavy reliance on their top playmakers to reach that output against a stout defense

The seven-yard line movement from 56.5 to 63.5 reflects market recognition of this game script advantage, yet the current number remains achievable given Waddle's role as the focal point of Miami's passing attack.

Pick: Jaylen Waddle Over 63.5 Receiving Yards (-111)

Aaron Rodgers Under 211.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Despite his impressive 284-yard performance against Baltimore, multiple factors point toward a more conservative passing output in this road environment.

The Steelers' optimal path to victory involves establishing Warren in the running game, controlling possession, and relying on defensive stops. Pittsburgh's offense isn't designed for high-volume passing, and Miami's pass rush capabilities should reinforce a conservative aerial approach.

Pick: Aaron Rodgers Under 211.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Same Game Parlay: Ground Game Dominance

The cold weather conditions and defensive strengths of both teams point toward a physical, run-heavy contest that should benefit the primary ball carriers.

Leg 1: De'Von Achane Anytime Touchdown (-123)
Achane's 114.5 total yards prop reflects his massive role in Miami's offensive scheme. As the clear red zone weapon and primary rushing threat, his -123 odds represent strong value for finding the end zone at least once.

Leg 2: Jaylen Warren Over 51.5 Rushing Yards (-111)
Pittsburgh's superior third-down conversion rate (40.0%) and red zone efficiency (64.1%) should create sustained drives requiring heavy Warren usage. The weather conditions and game script favor a ground-control approach that makes this modest rushing total highly attainable.

This two-leg combination capitalizes on both teams leaning heavily on their featured backs in conditions that discourage aggressive passing schemes.