A classic NFC East rivalry takes center stage on Christmas Day as the Dallas Cowboys travel to face the Washington Commanders at Northwest Stadium in Landover, Maryland. This Thursday, December 25 showdown kicks off at 1:00 PM EST, featuring two teams on vastly different trajectories despite both being eliminated from playoff contention.
Cowboys vs Commanders Betting Preview
The Cowboys enter as significant road favorites, with their high-powered offense led by quarterback Dak Prescott and elite receiver CeeDee Lamb set to challenge a Commanders defense plagued by injuries and turnover issues all season.
For Washington, the primary challenge involves protecting the football while slowing down Dallas's explosive aerial attack. The Commanders' -13 turnover differential represents one of the league's worst marks, creating a stark contrast against a Cowboys offense that has found its rhythm late in the season.
Key injury concerns, particularly on Washington's defensive front with Pro Bowl linebacker Bobby Wagner listed as doubtful and defensive tackle Daron Payne as Did Not Participate In Practice, could create significant mismatches favoring the visiting Cowboys.
This comprehensive betting preview examines the odds, critical injuries, statistical disparities, and key trends before delivering our fearless forecast and best bets for this holiday rivalry clash.
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Cowboys vs Commanders Betting Odds
| Bet Type | Dallas Cowboys | Washington Commanders |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -6.5 (-110) | +6.5 (-110) |
| Moneyline | -286 | +230 |
| Total Points | Over 50.5 (-115) | Under 50.5 (-105) |
Odds as of December 23, 2025, from MGM.
The Cowboys' moneyline price of -286 reflects strong market confidence, requiring a $286 wager to win $100. Washington's +230 return offers attractive value for upset believers, though the statistical evidence suggests Dallas should control this contest. The 6.5-point spread represents a significant road advantage, while the 50.5-point total indicates expectations for offensive fireworks.
Based on current moneyline odds, the bookmaker's implied probabilities suggest a 74.1% win probability for Dallas and 30.3% for Washington. After removing the vig, the normalized probability shows Dallas with approximately 71.0% win probability for this game, while Washington sits at 29.0%.
Cowboys vs Commanders Predictions & Best Bets: Christmas Day Fearless Forecast
The injury report and statistical trends paint a clear picture favoring the road favorites in this NFC East finale. Washington's defensive casualties, combined with their season-long turnover woes, create a perfect storm for Dallas's offensive attack to flourish on the holiday stage.
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Lock of the Week: Dallas Cowboys -6.5 (-110)
Our fearless forecast centers on Dallas's ability to exploit a depleted Washington defense missing its two most important defensive players. The Cowboys' offense, averaging 393.1 total yards per game, figures to find substantial success against a Commanders unit potentially without its anchor in the middle.
| Offensive Efficiency | Dallas Cowboys | Washington Commanders |
|---|---|---|
| Points Per Game | 27.6 | 20.1 |
| Total Yards | 393.1 | 321.1 |
| Third Down % | 42.0% | 37.2% |
| Red Zone TD % | 55.9% | 66.7% |
| Turnover Diff | -9 | -13 |
The 7.5-point scoring differential per game tells only part of the story. Dallas's superior third-down efficiency (42.0% vs 37.2%) translates to sustained drives and field position advantages. While Washington boasts impressive red zone touchdown efficiency at 66.7%, their struggles protecting the football and converting on money downs limit opportunities to reach scoring territory.
The potential absence of linebacker Bobby Wagner creates a massive void in Washington's coverage schemes, particularly over the middle where Dallas tight end Jake Ferguson operates as Dak Prescott's security blanket. Additionally, losing defensive tackle Daron Payne would compromise the Commanders' run-stopping ability, opening lanes for the Cowboys' ground attack to complement their passing game.
- Situational Trend: Dallas has covered the spread in 8 of their last 12 games (66.7%) as road favorites of more than three points, demonstrating their ability to perform in similar spots.
Best Total Play: Over 50.5 (-115)
Despite the high number, multiple factors point toward an over result. Dallas's scoring potential is well within reach against a Washington defense missing key personnel. The Cowboys' 27.6 points per game average should increase against compromised defensive schemes.
Washington needs to contribute approximately 22 points to push the total over, a realistic target despite their offensive inconsistencies. The Commanders have managed 20.1 points per game this season, and with Dallas potentially missing defensive contributors like DeMarvion Overshown, Washington's offense should find enough success to help cash the over.
- Situational Trend: The over has hit in 7 of Washington's last 10 games (70%) when the total exceeds 46 points, indicating their tendency toward high-scoring affairs.
Best Prop Bet: Jake Ferguson Over 3.5 Receptions (-149)
This prop directly targets the biggest mismatch created by Washington's injury situation. With Bobby Wagner's status in doubt, the Commanders lose their most reliable coverage linebacker over the middle. Ferguson operates precisely in this area as one of Prescott's most trusted targets, particularly on third downs and in short-yardage situations. His role as a possession receiver makes him a prime candidate for increased volume against a depleted linebacker corps.
Same Game Parlay Suggestion:
- Cowboys -6.5
- Jake Ferguson Over 3.5 Receptions
- CeeDee Lamb Anytime Touchdown (+115)
This correlation play banks on Dallas controlling the game through their passing attack, with both Ferguson's reception volume and Lamb's scoring chances increasing if the Cowboys build a substantial lead.
Cowboys vs Commanders Betting Trends: Historical Patterns Favor Dallas
Recent betting history strongly supports backing the Cowboys and the over in this NFC East rivalry matchup.
- Dallas has covered in 8 of their last 12 games (66.7%) as road favorites exceeding three points
- Washington has failed to cover in 7 of their last 10 home games (70%) as underdogs
- The over has cashed in 4 of the last 5 meetings between these teams played in Washington
- Dallas has dominated this head-to-head series, covering the spread in 4 of the last 5 matchups against Washington
- High-total games have been profitable over plays for Washington, with overs hitting in 7 of their last 10 contests (70%) when the total exceeds 46