The Dallas Cowboys host the Los Angeles Chargers in a pivotal Week 16 matchup that could define both teams' playoff destinies. With the Cowboys desperately fighting to keep their postseason hopes alive and the Chargers looking to solidify their playoff positioning, this non-conference clash at AT&T Stadium promises fireworks.
Cowboys vs Chargers Betting Picks
Dallas enters riding the emotional rollercoaster that's defined their season. Following a frustrating loss where Dak Prescott openly expressed being "surprised, hurt, pissed off, and frustrated" with the team's trajectory, the Cowboys are staring down potential back-to-back playoff misses. Their explosive offense averages 28.4 points per game but remains haunted by a league-worst -8 turnover differential that's sabotaged countless promising drives.
The Chargers present a stark contrast with their methodical, disciplined approach. Justin Herbert has guided an offense that thrives on efficiency, converting an impressive 46.3% of third downs while maintaining ball security. Their defense, anchored by game-wreckers like Khalil Mack and Derwin James Jr., just eliminated the Kansas City Chiefs from playoff contention with a dominant performance that showcased their opportunistic nature.
This matchup will test whether Dallas can overcome its turnover woes against a Chargers defense built to exploit exactly those mistakes.
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Los Angeles Chargers vs Dallas Cowboys Betting Odds
Date: Sunday, December 21, 2025
Kickoff: 1:00 PM EST
Venue: AT&T Stadium – Arlington, TX
Broadcast: Information not available
Weather: The game will be played indoors in a retractable dome, so weather will not be a factor.
- Moneyline: Cowboys -130 | Chargers +110
- Spread: Cowboys -2.5 (-108) | Chargers +2.5 (-112)
- Total (Over/Under): 49.5 (Over -112 | Under -108)
Betting odds courtesy of DraftKings.
The Cowboys have emerged as home favorites despite opening as underdogs, with the line movement from +1.5 to -2.5 reflecting late money backing Dallas. However, the elevated total of 49.5 points suggests oddsmakers expect the Cowboys' high-octane offense to find success, even against Los Angeles' stingy defense.
Head-to-Head Statistical Breakdown
When these contrasting styles collide, the numbers tell a compelling story of opposing philosophies. The Cowboys generate an impressive 396.9 yards per game with their aggressive attack, but their -8 turnover differential represents the season's defining weakness. In their recent setback, Dallas moved the ball effectively for 423 total yards yet settled for field goals, highlighting their red zone struggles.
Los Angeles operates with surgical precision, averaging 337.9 yards and 22.2 points per game while excelling in crucial moments. Their stellar 46.3% third-down conversion rate allows them to control tempo and wear down opponents methodically. The Chargers' defense has compiled 40.0 sacks while maintaining a positive turnover differential that's been their calling card.
The pivotal matchup centers on Dallas's turnover-prone offense facing a Chargers defense that just sacked Patrick Mahomes five times and forced two interceptions. Mack's pass rush unit is perfectly positioned to exploit Prescott's decision-making under pressure. For the Cowboys to prevail, Prescott must protect the football against a defense that's built its identity on creating takeaways.
This battle will likely be decided by whether Dallas's explosive capability can overcome its self-inflicted wounds against a disciplined Chargers squad that capitalizes on every mistake.
Cowboys vs Chargers Best Bets and Prediction
This matchup presents a classic stylistic clash that favors the more disciplined team in a tight contest. While Dallas boasts the firepower to score on anyone with their 28.4 points per game average, their propensity for costly mistakes creates exploitable opportunities for Los Angeles.
The Chargers are perfectly constructed to frustrate the Cowboys' attack. Their methodical offense that converts nearly half of their third downs can control the clock, while their opportunistic defense thrives on the exact type of turnovers that have plagued Dallas all season. With 40.0 sacks already accumulated and James coming off an interception that sealed their Chiefs victory, Los Angeles possesses the tools to generate game-changing plays.
Dallas's -8 turnover differential becomes magnified against a Chargers defense that's intercepted 17 passes this season. In what projects as a close contest, backing the more disciplined team with points represents the sharper play.
Best Bet: Chargers +2.5 (-112)
Top Player Prop: Dak Prescott Over 0.5 Interceptions (-141)
This prop aligns perfectly with the game's central narrative. Prescott faces constant pressure from a pass rush that's terrorized opposing quarterbacks, while the Cowboys' -8 turnover differential suggests more mistakes are inevitable. Against a defense this opportunistic, expecting at least one critical error from the Dallas quarterback makes statistical sense.
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Injury Report Analysis for Cowboys vs Chargers
Both teams enter this crucial matchup managing significant health concerns, with 28 players combined appearing on injury reports that could impact the game's outcome.
Dallas Cowboys Injury Concerns:
- WR CeeDee Lamb (Illness) - Did Not Participate In Practice
- CB DaRon Bland (Foot) - Did Not Participate In Practice
- DT Quinnen Williams (Concussion) - Did Not Participate In Practice
- RB Hunter Luepke (Concussion) - Did Not Participate In Practice
- CB Trevon Diggs (Knee) - Limited Participation In Practice
Lamb's potential absence due to illness would devastate Dallas's passing attack, removing Prescott's primary target in a game where the Cowboys need every weapon available. The secondary also faces major concerns with Bland sidelined and Diggs limited, creating vulnerability against Herbert's precision passing.
Los Angeles Chargers Injury Concerns:
- QB Justin Herbert (Hand) - Full Participation In Practice
- WR Keenan Allen (Rest) - Did Not Participate In Practice
- OLB Khalil Mack (Rest) - Did Not Participate In Practice
- WR Derius Davis (Ankle) - Did Not Participate In Practice
- WR Quentin Johnston (Groin) - Limited Participation In Practice
The positive news for Los Angeles centers on Herbert's full practice participation despite his hand injury. Veterans Allen and Mack receiving rest days suggests they'll be available for Sunday's contest, though the receiving corps could lack depth with Davis unavailable and Johnston limited.
The injury situations favor Los Angeles, whose key players appear healthier heading into this pivotal divisional showdown.