There are only two weeks left of the college football regular season, with many important matchups across the board. There is nothing quite like calling your shot on an underdog to win outright, and that is exactly what we are going to attempt to do in this article. Read below to learn about our top college football upset picks.
College Football Upset Picks and Betting Odds
There are multiple college football betting promotions to use on DraftKings and FanDuel for these picks.
| College Football Upset Picks | Odds |
| Pittsburgh Moneyline | +116 on FanDuel |
| Florida Moneyline | +170 on DraftKings |
| USC Moneyline | +310 on FanDuel |
Pittsburgh Over Georgia Tech
Pittsburgh is coming off a blowout loss to Notre Dame, but they have a good bounce-back opportunity this week against Georgia Tech. The Pittsburgh head coach basically said that the game against Notre Dame was pointless, and they showed up with that exact mindset in a lifeless loss. Minus losing some points for not having the "football guy" mentality, it does not mean we should shy away from them this week against.
All along, Pittsburgh HC Pat Narduzzi knew that this game against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets was huge, and we should expect a different team this week. Luckily, they are going up against a bad Georgia Tech defense, who have not been playing great recently. They barely beat Boston College, who ran for 6.7 yards per carry against them, and that comes after a loss to NC State in which Georgia Tech allowed 243 rushing yards. Overall, Georgia Tech has the 74th-ranked defense per EPA/play and 121st in points allowed per quality drive.
Pittsburgh actually ranks slightly higher than Georgia Tech per EPA/play, as they are 28th in the country and Georgia Tech is 31st. That said, the Pittsburgh offense ranks 16th in quality drive rate on offense, which is the biggest mismatch in this game.
Florida Over Tennessee
It has definitely been a lost season for the Florida Gators, but they showed some fight last week and are in a nice position to upset an overrated Tennessee team. Similar to the matchup above, this upset is based on the Tennessee defense being a below-average unit. They are 44th in EPA/play, which is not horrible, but 66th in rushing EPA/play and 120th in defensive rushing success rate. To go further than that, they struggle with missed tackles, ranking 117th in missed tackle rate and 95th in yards allowed after contact, while ranking 133rd in EPA in designed QB runs.
Those last two stats could be big in this game, a Florida is seventh in missed tackles and 18th in designed QB run EPA/play. Florida QB DJ Lagway started slow in terms of running, as he only had one game with 10+ rushing yards in the first seven games, and his rushing high in that stretch was 19 yards. Now, in the last three games, he has run for 24, 27 and 34 yards. Not huge yardage games, of course, but meaningful.
Tennessee will definitely score points on Florida as well, so the over is in play in this game, but Tennessee has eked out somewhat lucky wins, most notably against Mississippi State and Arkansas. This time against Florida, it comes back to bit them.
USC Over Oregon
Obviously, this one is of the longer shot variety, and the much more likely scenario here is that USC covers the 10.5-point spread, but we'll go bold with the full upset in this one.
The argument here is not that USC is better than the Oregon Ducks, but they are closer than their records and rank would suggest. The biggest gap, however, is the USC defense compared to the Oregon defense. Offensively, these two teams are similar. Oregon is sixth in net points per drive, while USC is eighth. In terms of offensive success rate, Oregon is fifth while USC is seventh.
Oregon has not consistently shown up against the stiff competition either, as they are only 1-2 against-the-spread against ranked teams. Their one cover was against Penn State, who we all know has cratered as the season has gone on. Oregon's one loss was as a touchdown favorite against Indiana at home.
So, it would not be out of the realm of possibility that USC is able to keep up offensively with Oregon and get the win in a shootout.