Welcome to your essential betting guide for Week 18 of the 2025 college football season. As bowl season kicks into high gear, we're treated to a compelling slate of non-conference matchups on Saturday, December 27th, each presenting unique opportunities and challenges from a betting perspective.
College Football Picks & Predictions
The action begins with the Penn State Nittany Lions taking on the Clemson Tigers in the Pinstripe Bowl at Yankee Stadium, followed by the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets battling the BYU Cougars in the Gasparilla Bowl, and concluding with the Virginia Cavaliers facing the Missouri Tigers in the TaxSlayer Bowl.
This week's slate features fascinating storylines and sharp contrasts, from clashes between high-powered aerial attacks to grind-it-out ground and pound philosophies. We'll analyze teams with improving offensive trends looking to exploit opponents whose defensive schemes have shown vulnerability.
Several matchups will hinge on crucial factors like third down conversions and turnover differential, where a single possession could swing both the game and your bankroll. This comprehensive preview dissects the key statistical trends and performance metrics, identifying which favorites offer solid value and which underdogs present live upset potential in the bowl betting market.
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Week 18 CFB Spreads & Totals
As we examine the betting landscape for Saturday's bowl matchups, the lines present several intriguing scenarios for sharp bettors. The most dramatic market movement involves Penn State, who opened as road favorites but now find themselves catching points. Meanwhile, Missouri has seen their spread contract significantly from the opening number, suggesting respected action on their opponent.
Here are the latest consensus spreads and totals for Saturday's bowl games:
• Penn State Nittany Lions @ Clemson Tigers: Spread: Clemson -3, Total: 48.5
• Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets @ BYU Cougars: Spread: BYU -3.5, Total: 55.5
• Virginia Cavaliers @ Missouri Tigers: Spread: Missouri -4, Total: 44.5
All odds via consensus data.
The most significant line movement occurred in the Penn State versus Clemson Pinstripe Bowl matchup, where Clemson transformed from +136 underdogs into -162 favorites. This dramatic reversal reflects overwhelming public support for the Tigers, who are capturing 81.82% of moneyline tickets. However, this creates a classic sharps versus squares dynamic, as sophisticated money is backing Penn State. The Nittany Lions are receiving only 18.18% of the betting tickets but commanding 43.48% of the total handle, indicating larger, more informed wagers.
Missouri's spread has contracted from an opening -6.5 to the current -4 against Virginia, a substantial 2.5-point move in the underdog's direction. While 64.81% of bets favor Missouri to cover, the line movement suggests sharp action found value with the Cavaliers at the inflated number.
Professional bettors have also made their presence felt in the totals market. The Georgia Tech versus BYU contest has attracted massive under action, with 85.69% of the money wagered backing a low-scoring affair. Similarly, the Penn State-Clemson total has drawn 82.19% of the handle on the under, suggesting informed money expects both games to feature more defensive struggles than the betting public anticipates.
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Week 18 College Football Predictions: ATS & Over/Under Picks
Our fearless forecasts for Saturday's bowl slate focus on exploiting market inefficiencies and following sharp money indicators. These selections blend statistical analysis with situational betting angles to identify the strongest value propositions.
| Game | ATS Pick | Over/Under Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Penn State Nittany Lions @ Clemson Tigers | Penn State +3 (-110) | Under 48.5 (-110) |
| Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets @ BYU Cougars | BYU -3.5 (-115) | Under 55.5 (-105) |
| Virginia Cavaliers @ Missouri Tigers | Virginia +4 (-110) | Under 44.5 (-105) |
Penn State Nittany Lions @ Clemson Tigers
• ATS Pick: Penn State +3 (-110)
• Over/Under Pick: Under 48.5 (-110)
This Pinstripe Bowl matchup screams sharp money versus public perception, and we're riding with the professionals backing Penn State. While recreational bettors have steamed Clemson from underdog to favorite, the Nittany Lions possess superior offensive efficiency metrics. Penn State generates 31.4 points per game compared to Clemson's 28.3, but the real edge emerges in situational football. The Nittany Lions convert a robust 41.7% of third down attempts while the Tigers manage just 34.4%, a critical gap in extending drives and controlling field position. Penn State's red zone efficiency also shines at 88.5% compared to Clemson's 80.0% mark, suggesting better execution in scoring situations.
The under represents our lock of the week, heavily supported by professional action drawing 82.19% of the total handle. December football in the Bronx favors defensive coordinators, and both teams bring pass rush capabilities that should disrupt offensive rhythm. Clemson's 33 sacks this season will test Penn State's pocket presence, while the Nittany Lions' defense should benefit from Clemson's tendency toward conservative offensive game plans. With both squads dealing with key opt-outs and bowl preparation distractions, expect a field position battle where points come at a premium.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets @ BYU Cougars
• ATS Pick: BYU -3.5 (-115)
• Over/Under Pick: Under 55.5 (-105)
While both programs feature dynamic offensive attacks averaging over 31 points per game, the decisive factor lies in ball security and defensive opportunism. BYU boasts an impressive +6 turnover differential, demonstrating exceptional discipline in protecting possessions while creating short fields through defensive takeaways. Georgia Tech sits at a troubling -6 turnover margin, indicating a turnover-prone offense that struggles with decision-making in crucial moments. This 1-turnover gap represents too significant an edge to overlook, especially when BYU's defense has recorded 16 interceptions and specializes in capitalizing on quarterback mistakes.
The total has attracted overwhelming sharp action on the under, with 85.69% of professional money backing a lower-scoring contest. Despite both offenses showing upward trends, Georgia Tech's propensity for drive-killing turnovers should limit their scoring opportunities against an opportunistic BYU defense. The Cougars' ball-hawking secondary will be primed to exploit any errant throws, while their disciplined offensive approach should control tempo and field position throughout this Gasparilla Bowl clash.
Virginia Cavaliers @ Missouri Tigers
• ATS Pick: Virginia +4 (-110)
• Over/Under Pick: Under 44.5 (-105)
We're backing the road underdog in a matchup where the line has shifted 2.5 points in Virginia's favor, a clear signal of respected money finding value with the Cavaliers. These teams present nearly identical offensive outputs at 31.7 points per game, but Virginia holds critical advantages in the most predictive metrics. The Cavaliers excel on third down conversions at 49.0% compared to Missouri's 46.1%, while their +7 turnover differential dwarfs Missouri's -5 mark. This 3-turnover gap suggests Virginia's disciplined approach and ball-hawking defense should control crucial possessions against a Tigers squad prone to costly mistakes.
The total has plummeted from an opening 50.5 to 44.5, indicating massive professional action on the under in this TaxSlayer Bowl encounter. Virginia's defense has generated 13 interceptions and should create problems for Missouri's turnover-prone attack, while the Tigers' formidable pass rush (35 sacks) will look to disrupt Virginia's methodical offensive approach. This projects as a defensive struggle where field position battles determine the outcome, keeping the final score well below the original market expectations.