We have reaches Week 11 of the college football season. There’s a top 10 matchup, which is featured on College Gameday. The 7th-ranked BYU heading to Texas to take on the 8th-ranked Texas Tech at noon eastern.
There is also an SEC rivalry game between LSU and Alabama at 7:30 p.m. ET, which has admittedly lost a lot of its luster with LSU having a down year and firing head coach Brian Kelly. Below, we explain our favorite college football picks on Saturday
College Football Picks and Sportsbook Odds
Use college football betting bonuses on bet365 and DraftKings to make the following wagers.
- TCU -7 (-110 at bet365)
- Stanford/North Carolina Under 43.5 (-120 at DraftKings)
- Indiana -14.5 (-108 at DraftKings)
Back TCU vs. Iowa State
TCU is the hope team in this game Saturday and are set up to win big against Iowa State. While Iowa State is not horrible in one specific category, they are also not great at one thing either. On the year, they have the 45th ranked EPA/play, 41st on offense and 52nd on defense. That said, breaking the game down into four categories (rushing and passing offense/defense), Iowa State ranges from 30th to 61st.
The biggest thing for this game, however, is how much Iowa State has been struggling recently. They have now lost four straight games, including a tough loss to Colorado. Their defense is a mess, unable to generate any pressure or cover anybody on that back end. That is a tough look going up against TCU and their 22nd-ranked passing offense according to EPA per play.
That is the biggest mismatch in this game, as the area in which Iowa State ranked 61st was their passing defense. The guess here is that TCU is going to be able to put up a ton of points in a situation where Iowa State cannot keep up.
Fade Offenses in Chapel Hill
The analysis for this one is simple: fade two of the worst offenses in all of college football. North Carolina has the 120th-ranked offense in the nation, while Stanford is not much ahead of them at 101st. Unsurprisingly, both teams are bottom 10 in terms of yards per play as well. Both offenses are slow, unable to gain chunk yards on any plays.
This leads to the games being shortened in terms of overall plays run, and both offenses struggle when they can manage to get close to the end zone. UNC has converted less than 50% of their redzone trips (46%), while Stanford is barely better at a 50% redzone conversion rate.
This game has the makings of an absolute slog, which leads to the offenses not doing much. The under is the way to go here.
Indiana Blows Out Penn State
It would not be an outlandish thing to say to call Indiana the best team so far in college football. They have the best EPA/play in the nation, with the best offense and the third-best defense. They have been fantastic, led by QB Heisman Trophy frontrunner Fernando Mendoza.
Now, they head to Happy Valley to take on a reeling Penn State team that is clearly underperformed their pre-season expectations, while having fired head coach James Franklin and lost QB Drew Allar for the season. The biggest disappointment for Penn State, however, has been their defense that ranks 90th in the country.
Penn State was able to hang with Ohio State for some of the game last week, before the wheels finally fell off in a 38-14 loss. Penn State has now lost five straight games and are in a tough spot against Indiana on Saturday.