Welcome to a crucial Week 17 of the college football season, where championship implications and postseason positioning take center stage. The slate begins December 19th with compelling non-conference matchups before building toward Saturday's heavyweight showdown.
College Football Bowl Picks and Betting Predictions for Friday
The marquee attraction features the Alabama Crimson Tide traveling to Norman to battle the Oklahoma Sooners in a clash between storied programs with rich championship pedigrees. Oklahoma enters as a slight home underdog against a battle-tested Alabama squad that has navigated a grueling schedule.
The week's betting card offers intriguing value beyond the main event, including the Memphis Tigers visiting the North Carolina State Wolfpack and the Kennesaw State Owls facing the Western Michigan Broncos. Each matchup presents unique strategic angles and statistical mismatches that savvy bettors can exploit. This comprehensive breakdown examines the key performance metrics, roster dynamics, and situational factors that will determine outcomes and uncover where the most profitable betting opportunities lie.
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College Bowl Picks and Best Bets
Saturday's championship weekend slate features one marquee showdown carrying significant postseason weight. Here are the current consensus lines for the week's premier matchup:
- Alabama Crimson Tide @ Oklahoma Sooners: Spread: Oklahoma -1.5 | Total: 40.5
All betting lines reflect consensus odds across major sportsbooks.
Sharp money movement has created compelling storylines across the weekend's key contests. In the Alabama-Oklahoma clash, professional bettors are demonstrating overwhelming confidence in the visiting Crimson Tide. A remarkable 82.65% of the moneyline handle from sharp action is backing Alabama for the outright victory, with 64.28% of spread money also flowing toward the road favorite. This heavy investment has likely caused the line to move from its opening position, despite modest public support for the home Sooners.
The Kennesaw State at Western Michigan total has witnessed the most dramatic sharp action of the week. An overwhelming 82.6% of professional money has hammered the OVER, creating a stark contrast with public sentiment favoring the UNDER. This lopsided investment suggests seasoned bettors identified significant value in the opening number, forcing sportsbooks to adjust upward to manage their exposure.
A similar sharp versus public divide emerges in the Memphis-North Carolina State moneyline market. While recreational bettors are drawn to the underdog Tigers, professional handicappers are confidently backing the home Wolfpack. 78.87% of sharp handle supports NC State to win outright, indicating strong belief in the home team's superior chances regardless of the point spread consideration.
Week 17 College Football Predictions & Best Bets
Our comprehensive analysis identifies the strongest value plays across this weekend's championship slate, targeting both against-the-spread opportunities and total mismatches.
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| Matchup | ATS Pick | O/U Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Alabama Crimson Tide @ Oklahoma Sooners | Alabama +1.5 | Under 40.5 |
| Memphis Tigers @ North Carolina State Wolfpack | NC State -4.5 | Under 57.5 |
| Kennesaw State Owls @ Western Michigan Broncos | Western Michigan -3.5 | Over 47.5 |
Alabama +1.5 at Oklahoma
ATS Pick: Alabama +1.5
O/U Pick: Under 40.5
Alabama brings superior offensive efficiency into this championship weekend showdown, converting third downs at a robust 44.2% clip compared to Oklahoma's pedestrian 38.6% rate. This drive-sustaining ability becomes magnified in hostile road environments where field position battles intensify.
The Crimson Tide's ball security advantage is equally compelling, sporting a +6 turnover differential while the Sooners have surrendered possession at a -3 rate. Combined with Alabama's more prolific scoring attack (30.9 PPG versus 25.9 PPG), these metrics point toward the road team possessing multiple pathways to victory.
The remarkably low 40.5 total reflects expectations of a defensive slugfest, making the Under an attractive proposition. Oklahoma's pass rush has generated 41.0 sacks this season, creating consistent pocket pressure that could disrupt Alabama's aerial attack (3,551 passing yards).
While the Sooners have maintained perfect red zone efficiency, their overall offensive inconsistencies and third-down struggles will likely limit scoring opportunities. Expect a field position-centric battle where defensive stops and punt coverage determine outcome more than explosive offensive plays, keeping the combined score comfortably below the posted number.
Memphis vs. North Carolina State
ATS Pick: NC State -4.5
O/U Pick: Under 57.5
Despite Memphis entering with superior scoring output (34.2 PPG) and an exceptional +9 turnover differential, the betting value favors North Carolina State laying the modest 4.5-point spread. The Wolfpack have demonstrated clinical red zone execution, converting an outstanding 92.7% of scoring opportunities into points.
Their third-down offense operates at a marginally superior 41.4% conversion rate, and recent offensive trending suggests improvement against a Memphis defense showing declining tendencies. Sharp money's heavy investment in NC State reflects confidence in the home team's ability to control pace and pull away late.
The 57.5 total appears slightly elevated despite both teams' offensive capabilities. Market movement from an opening 59.5 indicates professional sentiment expects a more methodical contest than season averages suggest. Both squads convert third downs at nearly identical rates (Memphis 41.1%, NC State 41.4%), potentially leading to extended drives that stall near midfield rather than explosive scoring plays. Championship weekend typically produces more conservative game plans focused on possession control rather than high-risk offensive schemes, supporting the Under position.
Kennesaw State at Western Michigan
ATS Pick: Western Michigan -3.5
O/U Pick: Over 47.5
Western Michigan's dominant advantage in turnover differential (+7 versus -2) provides the foundation for covering this modest home spread. The Broncos have created 20 takeaways (10 interceptions, 10 fumble recoveries) while demonstrating superior pass rush capability with 38 sacks compared to Kennesaw State's 31. This combination of forced turnovers and quarterback pressure creates short-field scoring opportunities that should overcome any slight offensive disadvantage and comfortably cover the 3.5-point number.
The Over 47.5 represents exceptional value, as evidenced by sharp money's overwhelming investment in the higher-scoring outcome. Kennesaw State averages 28.0 PPG while Western Michigan contributes 23.5 PPG, creating a combined baseline of 51.5 points that already exceeds the total. Both offenses are trending upward, with the Owls generating over 400 yards per contest (404.3).
Western Michigan's ability to create additional possessions through defensive takeaways, combined with two competent offensive units, establishes multiple pathways for this contest to develop into a track meet that easily surpasses the conservative total.