The Kansas City Chiefs travel to Arlington as 3-point road favorites against the Dallas Cowboys in a marquee Thanksgiving matchup. This 4:30 PM EST kickoff on November 27, 2025, at AT\&T Stadium features two of the NFL's most explosive offenses, led by star quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes and Dak Prescott.
The contest presents a fascinating clash of offensive philosophies. Dallas boasts a high-octane air raid offense, averaging an impressive 28.5 points per game and 387.3 yards per game. However, their aggressive approach has resulted in ball security issues, evidenced by a troubling -5 turnover differential.
The Chiefs counter with a more methodical attack, scoring 24.8 points per game while maintaining superior discipline with a +1 turnover differential. With elite playmakers like Travis Kelce and CeeDee Lamb ready to showcase their skills on the national stage, this Thanksgiving clash promises offensive fireworks and compelling betting opportunities.
Kansas City Chiefs vs Dallas Cowboys Odds
The NFL betting markets from MGM reflect a competitive matchup, with the visiting Chiefs installed as 3-point favorites despite playing on the road. Their -175 moneyline odds indicate they're the expected victors, while the Cowboys sit as +145 home underdogs. The total is set at a robust 52 points, signaling oddsmakers anticipate a high-scoring affair that aligns with both teams' offensive capabilities.
| Bet Type | Kansas City Chiefs | Dallas Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -3 (-115) | +3 (-105) |
| Moneyline | -175 | +145 |
| Total Points | Over 52 (-110) | Under 52 (-110) |
Odds courtesy of MGM
The moneyline presents clear value propositions for bettors. A successful $10 wager on the underdog Cowboys at +145 would yield a profit of $14.50. Conversely, backing the favored Chiefs requires risking $17.50 to win $10, given their -175 odds. The relatively tight spread suggests oddsmakers view this as a field goal game despite Kansas City's championship pedigree.
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Team Statistical Breakdown: Offensive Firepower vs Ball Security
When two offensive juggernauts collide, the statistical matchup reveals critical differences in approach and execution. Dallas operates a more explosive offensive system, generating higher yardage totals and scoring output. However, Kansas City's disciplined approach and superior ball security create an intriguing contrast that could determine the game's outcome.
| Offensive Statistic | Kansas City Chiefs | Dallas Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| Points Per Game | 24.8 | 28.5 |
| Total Yards Per Game | 376.0 | 387.3 |
| Passing Yards Per Game | 257.7 | 266.8 |
| Rushing Yards Per Game | 118.3 | 120.5 |
| Third Down Conversion % | 41.5% | 42.6% |
| Red Zone Efficiency | 59.6% | 61.4% |
| Turnover Differential | +1 | -5 |
The numbers reveal a classic ground and pound versus air raid philosophy clash. Dallas holds advantages in nearly every volume statistic, averaging more points, total yards, and maintaining slightly better third down conversion rates (42.6%) and red zone efficiency (61.4%). Their aggressive offensive scheme generates explosive plays but comes with significant risk.
The glaring difference lies in ball security. Dallas's -5 turnover differential represents their Achilles' heel, with 14 offensive turnovers often negating impressive yardage gains. This creates a critical mismatch against Kansas City's disciplined approach, as the Chiefs' +1 turnover differential reflects their superior discipline. The field position battle could heavily favor Kansas City if Dallas continues their turnover-prone tendencies.
Quarterback Duel: Mahomes vs Prescott Statistical Showdown
The marquee matchup features two elite quarterbacks operating at different efficiency levels. While Mahomes brings his trademark improvisational skills and championship experience, Prescott has emerged as the more statistically productive signal-caller this season, leading the league's top-scoring offense with remarkable precision.
| Quarterback Stats | Patrick Mahomes (KC) | Dak Prescott (DAL) |
|---|---|---|
| Passer Rating | 93.8 | 102.6 |
| Passing Yards Per Game | 270.6 | 267.4 |
| Passing TDs Per Game | 1.6 | 2.1 |
| Interceptions Per Game | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Completion Percentage | 64.4% | 69.3% |
Prescott holds the statistical edge in most efficiency metrics. His 102.6 passer rating significantly outpaces Mahomes' 93.8 mark, while his 69.3% completion percentage demonstrates superior accuracy compared to Mahomes' 64.4%. Most notably, Prescott averages 2.1 passing touchdowns per game versus Mahomes' 1.6, showcasing his red zone effectiveness.
Both quarterbacks demonstrate excellent pocket presence with identical 0.6 interceptions per game, but Mahomes generates slightly more volume with 270.6 passing yards per contest. The matchup favors Prescott's efficiency against Mahomes' experience, setting up a compelling contrast between statistical production and clutch gene reputation.
Key Quarterback Props
The sportsbooks have set intriguing lines reflecting each quarterback's season-long performance trends:
Patrick Mahomes (KC):
- Passing Yards: Over/Under 268.5 (-115)
- Passing Touchdowns: Over 1.5 (-222) / Under 1.5 (+160)
Dak Prescott (DAL):
- Passing Yards: Over/Under 254.5 (-115)
- Passing Touchdowns: Over 1.5 (-149) / Under 1.5 (+110)
Chiefs vs Cowboys Prediction: Expert Picks & Fearless Forecast
This Thanksgiving battle presents a classic road favorite scenario with compelling situational trends favoring the home underdog. While Kansas City brings championship pedigree and Mahomes' playoff magic, their recent road struggles against the spread create significant betting value for Dallas backers.
The Cowboys have been exceptional in this exact spot, posting a perfect 4-0 against the spread record in their last four games at home as underdogs. This trend becomes even more compelling when considering Kansas City's road woes, as the Chiefs have managed just 1-6 against the spread in their last seven road games. These contrasting trends suggest the market may be overvaluing Kansas City's reputation while underestimating Dallas's home-field advantage.
Our Fearless Forecast:
Spread Pick: Dallas Cowboys +3 (-105) - The Cowboys' offensive firepower, averaging 28.5 points per game, combined with their perfect ATS record as home underdogs makes this the value play. Dallas has also covered in five of their last six games as underdogs of fewer than seven points, indicating they thrive in the underdog role.
Total Pick: Under 52 (-110) - Despite the offensive talent on display, the under has connected in six consecutive Kansas City games. The Chiefs' methodical offensive approach and superior turnover differential often leads to longer drives that consume clock, potentially limiting total possessions and keeping the score below this elevated total.
Best Player Prop: Dak Prescott Over 254.5 Passing Yards (-115) - Prescott's 267.4 yards per game average sits comfortably above this line. With his superior completion percentage (69.3%) and the likely need to match Kansas City score-for-score, Prescott should easily clear this modest yardage total in what projects as a competitive affair.
The field position battle and turnover differential will ultimately decide this Thanksgiving classic, but Dallas's home cooking and proven underdog success rate make them the smart play against a Kansas City team that has struggled to cover away from Arrowhead.