The Tampa Bay Buccaneers head to Orchard Park this Sunday for what promises to be one of the more intriguing quarterback matchups of Week 11. The Buffalo Bills, powered by Josh Allen's dynamic ability, welcome a Buccaneers squad that's built its identity on winning the turnover battle and playing disciplined football under Todd Bowles.
Bucs vs. Bills Odds, Picks and Predictions
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This clash features two quarterbacks from the same 2018 draft class who have taken vastly different paths to success. Allen has evolved into an MVP-caliber player, leading the Bills to 27.6 points per game with his dual-threat ability. Meanwhile, Baker Mayfield has found his groove in Tampa Bay, orchestrating an offense that averages 24.0 points while the defense has created an impressive +8 turnover differential.
The storylines write themselves: Allen's cannon arm and mobility versus Mayfield's newfound consistency, Buffalo's high-octane offense against Tampa Bay's opportunistic defense. With both teams looking to bounce back from recent setbacks, this inter-conference showdown could very well come down to which quarterback can better impose his will when it matters most.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Buffalo Bills Betting Odds
Date: Sunday, November 16, 2025
Kickoff: 1:00 PM EST
Venue: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
The betting markets have clearly established Buffalo as the home favorite in this AFC-NFC clash:
- Moneyline: Buffalo Bills (-250) | Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+200)
- Spread: Buffalo Bills -5.5 (-110) | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +5.5 (-110)
- Total (Over/Under): 47 (Over -110 | Under -110)
Betting odds courtesy of MGM
The Bills enter as heavy moneyline favorites at -250, with oddsmakers expecting them to win by 5.5 points given the 5.5-point spread. Perhaps most telling is the significant line movement on the total, which has dropped from its opening number of 50.5 down to 47. This shift suggests the market expects Tampa Bay's methodical, defense-first approach to slow down what's typically been a high-scoring affair when the Bills are involved.
Head-to-Head: Buffalo's Explosive Offense Meets Tampa Bay's Takeaway Machine
The numbers tell a compelling story of contrasting philosophies when these teams take the field. Buffalo brings one of the league's most potent offensive attacks, averaging 384.4 total yards per game while converting an impressive 43.9% of third downs and finding the end zone on 65.6% of red zone trips. Allen's recent 404-yard, zero-turnover performance against Kansas City showcased exactly why this offense is rated as "Improving" at the perfect time.
Tampa Bay operates with a completely different blueprint for success. While their offense produces a respectable 24.0 points per game, it's the defense that defines this team's identity. The Buccaneers have forced 13 turnovers this season while giving the ball away just five times, creating that exceptional +8 turnover differential that's been their calling card.
The defensive units are surprisingly similar in terms of pass rush production, with Tampa Bay recording 26.0 sacks compared to Buffalo's 25.0. The key difference lies in how each defense creates game-changing moments. The Bills rely on consistent pressure and solid coverage, while the Buccaneers thrive on creating chaos and capitalizing on mistakes.
This was perfectly illustrated in Tampa Bay's last outing, where the defense scored a touchdown and forced four turnovers to secure victory despite the offense managing just 212 total yards. It's this ability to flip field position and create short fields that allows the Buccaneers to compete with more talented offensive teams.
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Buccaneers vs Bills Prediction: Why the Under 47 Offers the Best Value
This matchup presents a fascinating chess match between two distinct approaches to winning football games. While Buffalo's explosive offense has the talent advantage on paper, Tampa Bay possesses the exact formula to frustrate high-powered attacks and keep games competitive.
The Buccaneers' path to covering the spread—or potentially pulling off the upset—runs directly through their ability to force turnovers and shorten the game. With 13 takeaways already this season and a defense that's generated consistent pressure, they have the tools to disrupt Allen's rhythm and limit Buffalo's explosive play potential.
Best Bet: Under 47 (-110)
The market's significant move from 50.5 to 47 reflects a growing understanding of how this game will likely unfold. Tampa Bay's defensive identity revolves around creating turnovers and controlling pace, while their offensive approach emphasizes ball security over big plays. Expect a methodical, grind-it-out affair where the Buccaneers look to keep Allen off the field and capitalize on short fields when opportunities arise.
Best Player Prop: Josh Allen Over 33.5 Rushing Yards (-118)
Tampa Bay's 26.0 sacks indicate a defense that gets home consistently, which should force Allen out of the pocket regularly. With his rushing attempts line set at 6.5, oddsmakers clearly expect mobility to be a factor. Look for Allen to scramble for positive yardage as he's pressured into extending plays, easily clearing this modest rushing total.